Live data from Hacker News

Lyft Files for IPO

reuters.com

31–40 of 319 posts

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#31
post #4

Question that's somewhere between rhetorical and semi-serious. At what point do one of these companies increase their pricing to the point where they can operate profitably and just let volumes end up wherever they end up (making whatever cost cuts they need to on the way down)? Presumably there's some point where you can make money--but maybe not if you have a basically equivalent competitor who is willing to lose m…

No one has seen all the numbers but both services spend an extraordinary amount on advertising, Rider and driver obtainment, market development/setup costs, and legal costs. Like an absolute shit load.

Presumably all of those costs would disappear once someone wins the market or a "truce" is called. Right now both teams are spending like crazy in those areas because they need to have best numbers at IPO time. But once they both go public and the stock prices stabilize I suspect the spending will go down and they will be more profitable.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#33
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Kalanick was booted, I actually did expect the board to call a timeout and take a hard look at the business model while admitting that self-driving, especially in places that actually have enough density to make taxi-type services generally of interest, is a red herring. It's too far out and it's not clear what the implications are anyway. It's not like Uber and Lyft aren't still a useful service at 1.5x to 2x c…

It's not that they aren't a useful service at whatever price level would bring them profitability at current sales levels as much as that the demand curve may be such that if they were to raise prices theyd lose at least enough sales that it might not bring them to profitability at any price point. I.e. while someone earning $200K might decode they can afford $20 rides rather than $10 ones, someone making $50K might…

That's true. But there's a clear existence proof that there is a market for people willing to pay what it costs to drive them around. It existed before Uber and Lyft and it still exists alongside them. Certainly there's a price sensitivity curve but there's no reason to believe a national on-demand service like Lyft or Uber couldn't operate profitability in the absence of being undercut by VCs burning money.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#34
post #25
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxis are really a short term play. Long term is really transport as a service - who owns the market when people no longer own cars.

Stipulating that self-driving cars that can operate in dense urban areas in a wide range of weather conditions will exist some day... Lots of people are still going to own cars, especially as you get to less dense areas where parking isn't difficult or expensive and cars are needed on a daily basis to go places, store things, etc. What possible advantage, other than fleeting brand recognition, does Lyft or Uber have…

In short: The current model provides barely any vendor lock-in. This is great for the free market and prices, but not great for the companies.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Seriously, what's Uber/Lyft's long term goal? Massive fleets of autonomous vehicles transporting people. People often fall into the trap of seeing Uber and Lyft as a taxi service, they are absolutely autonomous vehicle companies. The human drivers are simply there to collect massive amounts of data, and build brand recognition, while the autonomous vehicle technology comes to maturity.

That's because they've done a shit job of building out a business that could act as the autotaxi. They are terribly placed to take advantage of self-driving vehicles, even if they perfect one, and they are spending in ways that are completely useless towards that long-term goal. A self-driving taxi company is going to look a lot like a car dealership that doesn't sell cars, or a lot like a taxi company that doesn't h…

The UX for self driving Uber === the UX for Uber now

The only theoretical differentiator is price. At the moment VC subsides are removing that as well

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Seriously, what's Uber/Lyft's long term goal? Massive fleets of autonomous vehicles transporting people. People often fall into the trap of seeing Uber and Lyft as a taxi service, they are absolutely autonomous vehicle companies. The human drivers are simply there to collect massive amounts of data, and build brand recognition, while the autonomous vehicle technology comes to maturity.

That's because they've done a shit job of building out a business that could act as the autotaxi. They are terribly placed to take advantage of self-driving vehicles, even if they perfect one, and they are spending in ways that are completely useless towards that long-term goal. A self-driving taxi company is going to look a lot like a car dealership that doesn't sell cars, or a lot like a taxi company that doesn't h…

>A self-driving taxi company is going to look a lot like a car dealership that doesn't sell cars, or a lot like a taxi company that doesn't have any drivers. They're going to have a huge number of cars, parking lots to store cars that aren't in use, and technicians to service, clean and fuel vehicles periodically.

No? You'll need charging stations to charge vehicles and will have enough to meet typical demand, when a large event is expected you have vehicles come in from other areas (Indy 500, Superbowl, etc). If vehicles aren't driving people or charging you use them as courier vehicles.

Yes you'll still maintain some in parking structures at some hours but with no driver needed you can pack considerably more into the same space as a vehicle that would require a human being to enter and exit the vehicle to move it.

Kids in their teens and early 20's are losing their desire to drive, individuals are getting their licenses much later. This is already a sign that a carless society is a very real possibility. These companies know that, they're working on taking the human driver out of the equation, they're building brand recognition, they're getting people comfortable with using a driving service (a large portion of the population has never used a taxi or even public transportation, yet within a few years hopping in a car with a stranger became normal) and they're collecting more data on driving and human movement via vehicle than ever before.

>Meanwhile, they're blowing through most of their venture capital selling rides below cost.

They are investing money in collecting data. The data alone they are collecting is worth the money they are burning through. You can't go buy that data from someone because it has never been collected and there's many ways to exploit that data to generate revenue both now and in the future as technologies become available like autonomous vehicles.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#38
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would rather wait for the Magic carpet service due by 2025.

And the home teleportation portal announced for 2027. I just hope it doesn't have too many privacy implications.

Personally, I'm more worried about the potential for a foreign object(eg. a fly) being present in the booth and becoming merged with myself as part of the teleportation process. scary stuff!

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#39

Funny that Uber/Lyft get categorized as "ride-hailing" when they specifically don't allow you to hail a cab, only request one in advance. But the alternative seems to be "ride-sharing", which is utter feel-good bullshit outside of the small percentage who use Uber Pool or Lyft Line, so I suppose it's the best we've got.

I believe the full term is "ride-hailing app[lication]", which does fit these services, specifically because they can't be used without the apps. I agree that the shortened version doesn't fit.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#40
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too easy to enter the market, at least in a small area for price fixing to work.

This exactly. I think eventually we could see a Kayak-like service that just compares rates for your trip against a set and books accordingly. Containing Uber/Lyft/local taxi service/etc. It's very easy to enter the market. You just need a map in a UI (mapbox) and a way to charge people (stripe/square). There's probably a decent market for transportation-service-as-a-service. $1000 gets you all setup with a custom ap…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN