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Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

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Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#151
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about you, but 500-1000 GB is more than enough for my SSD needs, so the comparison at 1TB is much more relevant to me than at 4TB.

Wasn't the parent discussion about a new high-capacity HDD and the per-capacity cost of HDD vs SSD? I don't think that people satisfied with under 1TB are relevant to that topic. In that market, people are comparing a pile of disks in an array to a pile of solid state storage needed to replace its capacity. The bulk price of storage inverts when it is cheaper to store hundreds of TB on huge SSDs rather than on huge H…

Sure, that's fair.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#152
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1TB SSD this past Black Friday was at the lowest about $115/1TB. That's about the price a 1TB HDD was back in 2010.

I'm not sure if this was meant to refute my point somehow, but hard drives haven't come down that much in price since 2010... Sorting by price on Newegg, if you're looking for a cheap laptop drive you can choose right now between a 320gb HDD for $28.55, a 60gb SSD for $19.99, or a 240gb SSD for $31.99. For a 1TB drive, you're looking at $38.50 HDD vs $109.99 SSD. Large SSDs remain fairly expensive for now, but the lo…

Agreed.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it was always like that for HDDs. You always had to assume no change in seek time with more capacity. And it was always wrong to treat HDDs as random IO devices with all the random writes and b-trees. At least now there is a pressure on everyone involved to do it right.

That's a completely different issue. Yes, it's important to do disk accesses right. That was even more true when I started doing this stuff in 1990 than it is now, because disks back then didn't have big caches or fancy controllers, and RAID wasn't a thing. My point is that even if you do everything right it's getting harder and harder for a disk-based system to keep up with I/O demand. That means more and more gyrat…

I get it, but take RAID for example. It always presumed weird things. That you either have enough performance and not enough load to be able to check disks or rebuild it without much degradation or that you are able to copy an entire disk in like a few hours or that an error means you need to replace the disk. These assumptions break if you don't forget that capacity increases, but seek time stays the same.

Obviously there will be some inherent complexity dealing with that, but not really more complexity, it's just different, maybe proper for once.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#154

From the article: "In a world where SSDs have become more and more common, one might ask what the point of even developing newer and bigger HDDs is." Solid state drives still cost about 10 times more per gigabyte. I'm just a web developer, but a spinning-disk drive looks 100 times more complicated to me to manufacture. I know at the beginning that hard drives would be cheaper, simply because SSDs were newer, and ther…

Hard drives are cheap because, regardless of capacity, you make a bunch of moving bits and electronics, and then cover a disk with iron oxide and that holds all the data. When manufacturing SSDs, you need to make circuitry for each bit.

sounds similar to the CRT to LCD evolution of displays.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that logic things should get more expensive, not cheaper, as the demand increases. To put it another way, why wouldn't someone undercut the current suppliers and sell at just above their marginal cost and take over the whole market.

> By that logic things should get more expensive, not cheaper, as the demand increases. This is... exactly what everyone expects, and the assumption of every economic graph in the world? The stupidest, most basic supply-demand model is: Prices fall with falling demand and/or rising supply. Prices rise with rising demand and/or falling supply.

> This is... exactly what everyone expects, and the assumption of every economic graph in the world?

There are actually markets where the opposite holds. Basically anything with high fixed costs, because the more units sold, the less of the fixed costs each unit has to cover.

But fabs don't really work like that because, while very expensive, they have finite capacity. A fab that can produce a million units costs a billion dollars. If you want two million units, that'll be two billion dollars and be available a few years from now. And if you build more capacity than there is demand, you're bankrupt. So they purposely build somewhat less than expected, which when demand is higher than expected results in much more demand than supply.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#156

Anyone have an opinion about Seagate? I had one of their HDD and it died on me within a year. Not sure if this was a 'one-off' or other people had issues with their quality. Similar issue with samsung on SSD.

I’ve owned three or four Seagate drives (at least two of which were enterprise-class), and they all failed. My many HGST disks, with one exception, were all still alive and well when I retired them. I’ve never had a WD disk fail.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will. SSDs counter intuitively scale down in price much better than hard drives at small sizes; there's no cost advantage to making a HDD with less storage than a single platter, or about 1/5 to 1/8 (in the case of helium drives) of the largest on the market. Eventually, an SSD with cost parity with a low end HDD will be big enough, after which there's no reason for the low end consumer market not to switch over.…

"Eventually, an SSD with cost parity with a low end HDD will be big enough, after which there's no reason for the low end consumer market not to switch over. The high end will have already as well (I certainly will never buy another laptop containing a HDD)." Reliability and mean time between failures figure in to the equation as well -- at both the low end and the high end. Data centers don't want to be swapping out…

Maybe an SSD under a heavy datacenter I/O load is indeed less reliable than an HDD.

But in a laptop, a device that you lug around, move around while working, and sometimes even drop, a precise mechanical device has a much larger chance to misbehave, to my mind. Its I/O load is way lower than in the datacenter, too.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#158
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things do get more expensive as demand increases. Have you not bought enterprise SSDs up until 6 months ago? https://cdn.pcpartpicker.com/static/forever/images/trends/tr... This is the average price of a 256GB SSD. In May 2017 they were just above $100. Soon after that demand pushed that near $175. Just recently that price has dropped as new processes have increased inventories. > why wouldn't someone undercut the cu…

Sure, that's the economical aspect of it. On the other hand it means the technology is established and people prefer to buy SSDs over HDs. Speaking of myself, I wouldn't consider buying an HD laptop ever again. This means companies can invest in very long-term endeavours to transform their HDD production businesses into SSD production businesses. The costs are high but the risk is low, lower or at best equally high o…

The article below has a graph showing the number of "Client SSD vs HDD units" shipped by Samsung over the last 6 years. Given current trends, the SSD shipments will very likely exceed HDD in the next 12 months.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/23/ssd_market_q3fy18/

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a completely different issue. Yes, it's important to do disk accesses right. That was even more true when I started doing this stuff in 1990 than it is now, because disks back then didn't have big caches or fancy controllers, and RAID wasn't a thing. My point is that even if you do everything right it's getting harder and harder for a disk-based system to keep up with I/O demand. That means more and more gyrat…

I get it, but take RAID for example. It always presumed weird things. That you either have enough performance and not enough load to be able to check disks or rebuild it without much degradation or that you are able to copy an entire disk in like a few hours or that an error means you need to replace the disk. These assumptions break if you don't forget that capacity increases, but seek time stays the same. Obviously…

I'd say it's a lot more complexity. The first way most people became aware of the capacity/performance gaps is that a backup couldn't complete before the next one was scheduled. Ah, the good old days. That was the easy case. The system I work on today has a dozen such maintenance activities going on all the time. Making sure they all complete in reasonable time, without affecting the endless stream of new user I/O too much, requires increasingly sophisticated scheduling as the gap gets wider. That's a lot of complexity right there. On top of that, there's this little formula:

  load = warmth * capacity
Warmth is effectively constant for relevant time scales, so increasing capacity means increasing load. Scaling out doesn't help in this case, not even with perfect linear scaling, because every bit of added capability brings added capacity and load with it. Until you run out of users, I guess, but those seem to be infinite. ;)

Thus, systems with the same basic architecture get more and more overloaded as per-disk capacity increases, until they become useless. The only escape is to change the architecture, inevitably toward greater complexity (e.g. cache layers and burst buffers). None of this would be necessary with a better capacity/performance ratio. Believe me, nobody wants to make these systems more complicated. But every time that gap gets bigger, there will likely be a new increment of complexity to deal with it

I don't see how that's "proper" or "where it belongs" or any such. It's not that all such systems were poorly designed for the hardware as it was when they were developed. It's that even the best designs have to keep adapting. The demise of Moore's law and the ever increasing number of cores per die or per system have increased complexity in the compute domain. The capacity/performance gap is the storage equivalent.

Re: Seagate Announces 16TB HDD

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get it, but take RAID for example. It always presumed weird things. That you either have enough performance and not enough load to be able to check disks or rebuild it without much degradation or that you are able to copy an entire disk in like a few hours or that an error means you need to replace the disk. These assumptions break if you don't forget that capacity increases, but seek time stays the same. Obviously…

I'd say it's a lot more complexity. The first way most people became aware of the capacity/performance gaps is that a backup couldn't complete before the next one was scheduled. Ah, the good old days. That was the easy case. The system I work on today has a dozen such maintenance activities going on all the time. Making sure they all complete in reasonable time, without affecting the endless stream of new user I/O to…

Cheap cold storage will find its use. So I think it's reasonable to expect the gap to increase for like 10x more in the future, before SSDs overtake storage completely. Have to plan at least for that.
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