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Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

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Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#61

Post by mrec »

Hydraulix989 wrote: post #48
bryanlarsen wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mark these words. In 10 years time we'll still be hearing the same comments about Waymo & their competitors because there still will be certain combinations of passenger, route & conditions that Waymo will refuse to take without a safety driver along. But since Waymo will handle the vast majority of rides we'll just tune out those comments. Handling all rides & conditions is a very hard problem and it'll take decades…

An oft-repeated adage in the self-driving engineering circles is "the last 10% is 90% of the work"

Isn't that just the 90-90 rule?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety-ninety_rule

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#62

Post by [deleted] »

GeorgeO84 wrote: post #49
anticensor wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That car would probably be called Windows Car (not to be confused with your car's windows), stop irregularly at weird places to allow for mandatory updates, and report your height and weight to Microsoft.

Critical Update. You have 2 minutes to close all the windows and leave the car.

[deleted]

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#63

Post by luhn »

spuz wrote: post #15
talawahdotnet wrote: post #3

> Waymo One is rolling out in the Metro Phoenix area first. Over time, we hope to expand to new places and more people. You can sign up to express interest using the form at the bottom of this page[1] (asks for your gmail address, zip code and type of phone). P.S. Why is the mobile experience on Medium so frustratingly bad? Between the permanent heading plus the "please download our app" heading I find it maddening.…

Don't worry, Medium on desktop is equally bad. Two persistent banners bottom and top plus a "pardon the interruption" popup. I really wish companies wouldn't use Medium as their blogging platform.

It's also started pushing entries into my browser history as I scroll past headings, stopping my back button from doing what I expect. Really gets my goat.

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#65

Post by dsfyu404ed »

GeorgeO84 wrote: post #56
jbob2000 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't matter, it's not self-driving if you need a driver. And when that driver takes control of the vehicle away from the AI, it's going to be at a startling and dangerous moment when the AI makes a really bad decision, like directing the car towards a barrier or a stopped bus.

If the driver has large uneventful periods of time where he/she has nothing to do. He/she will not react in time for an emergency.

If the software driver is bad enough that the safety driver will feel compelled to pay attention at all times but not quite take control unless the car does something actually warranting it. It'll be like teaching a 16yo to drive but without them actually getting better (because the software will need to be tuned to keep the driver on edge). Doing it that way is kind of a backhanded approach but it would force the backup driver to pay attention.

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#67

Post by Ajedi32 »

Fricken wrote: post #29
gniv wrote: post #2

The link at the bottom of that article is pointing to another Medium post with details of the launch: https://medium.com/waymo/riding-with-waymo-one-today-9ac8164... Notably, "At the start, Waymo-trained drivers will be riding along to supervise our vehicles for riders’ comfort and convenience." Edit: Re-reading my comment, it sounds negative, so I want to acknowledge that I think this is a big deal. No matter how "s…

The milestone to mark is the day when you or I can, at least theoretically, download the the fricken app and request a ride in an autonomous vehicle that has no safety driver.

I think that line is going to a bit more blurry than you think. Waymo has already done fully driverless testing during the early rider program, with plans to roll that out to Waymo One in the future[1]:

> We’re never done learning, and our early rider program will continue as a way for a select group to give us ongoing insights. They’ll help test early features before those new capabilities graduate to Waymo One. For example, we’ve already offered fully driverless rides to some of our early riders.

And the number of people with access to Waymo One is going to steadily increase over time[1]:

> We’ll first offer Waymo One to hundreds of early riders who have already been using our technology. Over time, we hope to make Waymo One available to even more members of the public as we add vehicles and drive in more places.

So with that in mind, let's imagine if, for example, at some point in the near future 10,000 people have access to Waymo One and 1% of Waymo One rides are being completed without a safety driver. Would that satisfy your milestone? What about 100,000 people with 10% driverless rides? If Waymo eventually reaches a point where 95% of rides are fully driverless, and 1 million people have access to the app, would Waymo opening the app up to everyone _really_ seem like that significant of a milestone anymore?

[1]: https://medium.com/waymo/waymo-one-the-next-step-on-our-self...

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#68

Post by sanarothe »

rsync wrote: post #59
cromwellian wrote: post #47

Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year or more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers is what I'd call a very responsible choice. IMHO, to do less would be reckless showboating that could do unimaginable damage to the AV industry, as well as end up endangering lives. In the tech industry, we don't like to wait, we like moving fast, taking risks, shi…

"Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year or more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers is what I'd call a very responsible choice." A whole year! Truly sage-like wisdom from the MoveFastBreakThings generation of technical development. It is simultaneously comical, exasperating and sad to watch this tragedy unfold. We will slowly build our own, moder…

Having recently trusted that intuition and nearly being T boned, human drivers can currently do anything...

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#69

Post by njarboe »

rsync wrote: post #59
cromwellian wrote: post #47

Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year or more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers is what I'd call a very responsible choice. IMHO, to do less would be reckless showboating that could do unimaginable damage to the AV industry, as well as end up endangering lives. In the tech industry, we don't like to wait, we like moving fast, taking risks, shi…

"Keeping the safety drivers in the beginning, scaling up, and getting a year or more worth of actual real world use, before slowly scaling back the drivers is what I'd call a very responsible choice." A whole year! Truly sage-like wisdom from the MoveFastBreakThings generation of technical development. It is simultaneously comical, exasperating and sad to watch this tragedy unfold. We will slowly build our own, moder…

I'm not sure where you live but in my country (USA, where these companies you are mocking operate) when a vehicle approaches the road and I am going highway speed, I get a bit nervous, cover the brake, and feel a nice sense of relaxing stress when I pass by. That other vehicle could do anything. 40,000 deaths a year and over a million world wide.

Re: Waymo One: The next step on our self-driving journey

#70

Post by beamatronic »

c2h5oh wrote: post #57
GeorgeO84 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Critical Update. You have 2 minutes to close all the windows and leave the car.

More like "critical update is being installed" signaled by the car hitting the breaks hard until full stop in the middle of a highway.

You would be sailing along at highway speeds and the steering would stop responding for a few minutes.
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