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Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

towardsdatascience.com

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Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#41
post #32
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give some examples of both?

Statistics being used for prediction: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-march-madness-p... Statistics being used for inference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stephen-curry-is-the-re...

As others have pointed out, in statistics the goal is understanding something. Once you have understood it you can predict its behaviour. However the reverse is not true.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#42
Quote:

“One of our assigned projects was to implement and train a Wasserstein GAN in TensorFlow. At this point, I had taken only an introductory statistics class that was a required general elective, and then promptly forgotten most of it. Needless to say, my statistical skills were not very strong. Yet, I was able to read and understand a paper on a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model...Yet, if you had asked me, or most of the students in that class, how to calculate the variance of a population, or to define marginal probability, you likely would have gotten blank stares. ”

I agree that the GAN might be implementable without much stats knowledge, but I would be very surprised if someone who did not know population variances and marginal probabilities would be able to follow the Wasserstein GAN paper. Just see for yourself: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.07875

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#43
post #13

Here's one way I think of it: in statistics vs. machine learning, there's a difference in your goals, which is reflected in a difference in your models. - In statistics, the goal is to explain something. The models have few variables, and each variable should mean something, like the influence of the person's age or sex on the outcome. - In machine learning, the goal is to make something work. This is apparently bett…

I completely disagree, and this is a notion that seems to have become popular but is completely off base. For some reason, people seem to believe that statistics is for inference, and machine learning is for prediction, as if statistics hasn't been concerned with matters of prediction for hundreds of years.

Machine learning is closer to being a subfield of statistics, in which methods tend to be non-parametric, have an emphasis on automation, and tend to require (but not necessarily) large amounts of data.

I think the entire reason for this notion is due to CS folks wanting in on the field of predictive analytics, but not wanting to admit that they don't have even minimal understanding of statistics or probability theory. But if they call it machine learning and insist enough that it is a completely different discipline, then they can feel better about themselves and their models that they threw together.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#44
post #41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistics being used for prediction: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-march-madness-p... Statistics being used for inference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stephen-curry-is-the-re...

As others have pointed out, in statistics the goal is understanding something. Once you have understood it you can predict its behaviour. However the reverse is not true.

This isn't true though. There are ton's of uninterpretable model methodologies in classical statistics that have little to no ability to allow for understanding but are aimed entirely at accurate predictions. Where is this narrative that statistics is only interested in understanding coming from?

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#45
What a silly/confused article. To say it’s not stats because someone can implement a GAN without deep stats knowledge is ignoring everything that’s lead to that point. It’s like arguing there’s no assembly in programming because I can write and understand hello world in Python. Your fancy GAN is not coming from a vacuum. It’s been built on top of a ton of math+stats, and then you end up implementing it in tensorflow which itself is a bunch of abstractions done for you.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#46
I don't love the term 'mansplaining', but if there is a term that describes essentially the same idea but in the context of academic fields, its exactly how I would describe the central thesis of this blog post and a trend I've encountered frequently in the last couple years. There is a rising tide of CS people who have just latched onto the hype of data science, and now go around letting statisticians know that no, they aren't actually interested prediction, they don't actually know how to work with large data, and don't actually work with non-parametric methods. It certainly comes as a shock to all of the statisticians in the world who have indeed been working on these types problems for a long time now.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#47
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others have pointed out, in statistics the goal is understanding something. Once you have understood it you can predict its behaviour. However the reverse is not true.

This isn't true though. There are ton's of uninterpretable model methodologies in classical statistics that have little to no ability to allow for understanding but are aimed entirely at accurate predictions. Where is this narrative that statistics is only interested in understanding coming from?

> Where is this narrative that statistics is only interested in understanding coming from?

You may have heard of this guy called Fisher he might like to have a few words with you. He says he fathered modern Stats, that he connected what was a bag of recipes to math. Many seem to agree [0] despite the fact he does not seem to be the most pleasant bloke around. The British queen seemed awfully impressed with him though, YMMV.

[0] "a genius who almost single handedly created the foundations for modern statistical science" -- Hald, Anders, A History of Mathematical Statistics.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#48
post #34

Machine Learning is not just statistics. David Donoho spells out the history of the whole thing in his 50 Years Of Data Science: https://courses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2015/docs/50YearsDataSc... The clearest statement of the difference I've found is Leo Breiman's "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures:" https://projecteuclid.org/download/pdf_1/euclid.ss/100921372... The abstract has a succinct explanation: > Abstract.…

The premise of the abstract is flawed though. Who says statisticians aren't using algorithmic models? Perhaps the author doesn't but random forests, clustering, PCA, gaussian processes, and even neural networks are standard fare for many statisticians.

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#49
post #34

Machine Learning is not just statistics. David Donoho spells out the history of the whole thing in his 50 Years Of Data Science: https://courses.csail.mit.edu/18.337/2015/docs/50YearsDataSc... The clearest statement of the difference I've found is Leo Breiman's "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures:" https://projecteuclid.org/download/pdf_1/euclid.ss/100921372... The abstract has a succinct explanation: > Abstract.…

The premise of the abstract is flawed though. Who says statisticians aren't using algorithmic models? Perhaps the author doesn't but random forests, clustering, PCA, gaussian processes, and even neural networks are standard fare for many statisticians.

I mean, the author certainly used random forests, seeing as he invented them:

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2005/07/07_brei...

Re: Machine learning is not just glorified statistics

#50
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't true though. There are ton's of uninterpretable model methodologies in classical statistics that have little to no ability to allow for understanding but are aimed entirely at accurate predictions. Where is this narrative that statistics is only interested in understanding coming from?

> Where is this narrative that statistics is only interested in understanding coming from? You may have heard of this guy called Fisher he might like to have a few words with you. He says he fathered modern Stats, that he connected what was a bag of recipes to math. Many seem to agree [0] despite the fact he does not seem to be the most pleasant bloke around. The British queen seemed awfully impressed with him though…

I'm sure you were attempting to make a point, but you failed. But if you are trying to claim that R.A. Fisher only cared claims that statistics is only about inference, the point is moot because:

1. R.A. Fisher isn't the Almighty Statistical God just because he did laid a lot of foundations in early statistics.

2. Fisher has a long history of seriously stupid personal-beliefs including but not limited to: refuting anything and everything relating to Bayesian statistics, attempting to discredit the studies done showing a link between smoking and lung cancer, and advocating for eugenics and the idea of superiority/inferiority between races.

So just because Fisher may have claimed something doesn't make it so.

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