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Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

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Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#61

South of the Bay Area in Santa Cruz is Natural Bridges State Beach, through which monarchs allegedly migrate. I was around that area for around two years and I can't remember ever seeing one.

They were there a couple of weeks ago, and should be there now (they winter in the eucalyptus grove). Thousands of them.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#62

This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density below which population of frogs and birds and what not w…

I don’t think the insect apocalypse is getting its attention stolen by climate change.

I just don’t think enough people care. I mean, look at France. They are having violent riots because the gas prices were increased to fight climate change.

I know that it’s easy for me, a relatively wealthy Scandinavian, to not worry about gas prices, but even if these people are struggling to make ends meet, they are right now, actively fighting to kill the future of their children.

How the hell we going to change anything when the status of the world is like this?

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#63
post #20

My father, who lives on the NC coast, has monarch caterpillars all over his milkweed right now. It’s very late for them to be there. Let’s hope they make it before the weather gets too cold!

I live in the migration path in Texas and we cut our milkweed to the ground in mid fall after the first cold front. It supposedly discourages monarchs from overwintering so they keep migrating.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#64
post #11
post #9

If the pesticides were banned, how fast would their population be replenished? Or do they persist, akin to CFCs?

>This year’s steep drop is probably due to extreme weather, at least partly resulting from climate change. Late rainstorms in March, as well as an intense, extended wildfire season across California, have battered the species. The state’s forests have yet to recover from the record-breaking drought stretching from 2011 to 2017.

I read the article; I was just assuming that pesticide use is only thing we are likely to affect in the near future. Habitat reclamation seems unlikely? I'm relatively clueless in this regard and was just inviting comment.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#65
post #12

This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density below which population of frogs and birds and what not w…

You're assuming that's just due to insecticides. Insects are exposed to multiple stressors. One of them also happens to be global warming. Others are habitat loss, insecticides, invasive species, etc. In fact the researchers measuring the loss of insect biomass in puerto rico rainforests attributed it primarily to climate change since the other factors do not apply there.

“Lots of insects are dying” and “insecticides kill insects” does make it very easy to reach that conclusion.

I know nothing of the relevant biochemistry. Are these insecticides well targeted or highly generic in what they kill?

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#66
post #39

This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density below which population of frogs and birds and what not w…

> All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. I am not aware of any scientific publication showing a causal link. Let's be a little careful about this. By increasing crop yields and reducing deaths from insect borne diseases, insecticides have greatly reduced human suffering over the past century. It's possible that insecticides are the cause, and if so, something has to be done, but such decisions need to be bas…

Of mice and honey bees

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29635013

http://www.pnas.org/content/115/41/10305

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#67

This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density below which population of frogs and birds and what not w…

I don't think it's alarmism fatigue so much as the culture war having smashed lots of people's trust in institutions and elites. It's hard to care about pressing real problems when society's energy had been spent on nasty, petty, and vicious disputes that don't matter much, but that for the participants, feels like the apocalypse. What is everyone going to do when the real apocalypse shows up?

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#68
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironclad facts, science, studies, & research are great. However, if we are facing imminent collapse of pollinator populations (which would lead to a lot of human suffering) the precautionary principal starts to look interesting. In other words, if we run the risk of population collapse within ten years, and population collapse will lead to crop failure and mass starvation & death, but rigorous studies on cause will t…

For the most part, our calorie crops do not rely on insects. For example, corn is wind pollinated and wheat, soy, rice and potatoes are self pollinating. Having reduced access to things like almonds and apples is gonna suck, but even with 0 insects it's still going to be reduced access, as hand pollination is quite a fast process.

I have an ominous feeling when I think about how the changes in the topsoil's mycology could affect the crops we rely on.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#69
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The variations in surface temperature we have seen in the modern era are nothing compared to what we've seen in the recent geological record. Moreover, insects are very sturdy throughout the geological record, so it's very difficult to believe that less than 1C change in a century could cause this (the end of the last glacial period saw a 7C swing in just a few hundred years). It's pretty clear that climate change is…

> it's an extremely complex system about we have shockingly little information in the grand scheme of things (30 years' worth of satellite data!), You should stop making that argument as it's too much like a well-refuted talking point that climate change denialists use. We have many different lines of evidence. “Global Warming in an Independent Record of the Past 130 Years“, for example, shows that the temperature ch…

The commentator to whom you're replying isn't denying climate change. He's proposing that the insect die off is happening on too short a time scale to attribute it entirely to climate change. That you're attacking him as if he were a climate denier is an example of the sort of behavior that creates climate deniers.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#70
post #65
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming that's just due to insecticides. Insects are exposed to multiple stressors. One of them also happens to be global warming. Others are habitat loss, insecticides, invasive species, etc. In fact the researchers measuring the loss of insect biomass in puerto rico rainforests attributed it primarily to climate change since the other factors do not apply there.

“Lots of insects are dying” and “insecticides kill insects” does make it very easy to reach that conclusion. I know nothing of the relevant biochemistry. Are these insecticides well targeted or highly generic in what they kill?

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