Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision • Hacker News Board

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#141

Post by toyg » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 8:35 AM UTC

yodsanklai wrote: post #80

colmvp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. I mean, I get it, football has a huge pitch and it'd probably be ridiculous to have guys exhausted, barely able to jog at the 150th minute. That said, one of the things I love about NHL playoff hockey is that without compromise, it's first goal wins overtime, where players are willing to do ever…

> It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. Even without the shoutouts, football is a very random game (compare with something like Tennis). And this is amplified by the tournament format. I like how experts take this game so seriously and come up with deep analysis when there's so much randomness in the result.

Some of the public analysis can be qualified as theological debate, yes; but behind the scenes, in professional clubs, there is a lot of actual tactical work and preparation, which really removes a lot of the “randomness”. The best team doesn’t always win a game, but it usually wins a league and it often wins a cup, and that’s not by accident.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#142

Post by skgoa » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 8:38 AM UTC

colmvp wrote: post #66

gojomo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might spice-up the whole match to have this final-someone's-gotta-win tiebreaker before other tiebreaker matches, and then hold the result "in case it's needed". That'd be in the same spirit as this recommendation to have Soccer penalty-kick shootouts before overtime. https://slate.com/culture/2016/06/how-to-fix-the-penalty-sho... That is: you know who will win if all other tiebreakers draw, giving the side which…

It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. I mean, I get it, football has a huge pitch and it'd probably be ridiculous to have guys exhausted, barely able to jog at the 150th minute. That said, one of the things I love about NHL playoff hockey is that without compromise, it's first goal wins overtime, where players are willing to do ever…

The problem with excessive overtime (and the now abolished Golden Goal) in football is that the quality of play decreases dramatically as the players get ever more exhausted. Going to 120 minutes already doesn't lead to one team clearly outplaying the other in almost all cases.

The big difference to e.g. american football is that football is a low scoring game even at the best of times. Tired attacking players will score even less, since a succesful offense relies on outrunning and outplaying the defense, while the defense typically can deny a lot of goalscoring opportunities by simply being in the correct positions. If no one can score by minute 120, it really doesn't make sense to make the game go on even longer.

I agree that a penalty shootout is close to a coin flip most of time and that this isn't a satisfying way to decide a winner. However there are teams (e.g. the german men'sn ational team) that consistently outperform on penalties. That's because penalties are far less about technique than they are about psychology. It's all about performing under pressure. That pressure is even higher in a penalty shootout at a big turnament. This plus the sheer drama of it make penalty shootouts one of the most thrilling events at a big turnament.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#143

Post by hardmath123 » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 8:38 AM UTC

StanfordChess wrote: post #136

Hi all, for those planning to watch tomorrow's rapid/blitz tiebreakers live, Stanford Chess team will be livestreaming analysis and commentary at https://www.twitch.tv/stanfordchess and https://lichess.org/@/StanfordChess . Our team captain is GM Daniel Naroditsky, one of the top blitz and bullet players in the world, who regularly beats Magnus in the LiChess Titled Arena. And our coach is NM Jordy Mont-Reynaud, a ~2…

Can folks at Stanford come by and watch live? (This is the first I've heard of the Stanford Chess Club…)

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#144

Post by toyg » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 8:42 AM UTC

amoorthy wrote: post #115

BurningFrog wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In hockey, players rest most of the time, and can keep playing much longer. Also skating takes much less effort than running. A soccer player must first of all be a decent mid distance runner: They run an average of 7 miles per game! In soccer, I think the longer they play, the more tired people get, the more it rewards defense, and you'd just see very few goals after 120 minutes. You could imagine things like removi…

I've played both hockey and soccer for a long time (not super-competitive though). Hockey is far more tiring even with short 60-90s shifts in a 60 min game vs. full time for a 90 min soccer game. I'm not sure why but for me at least the short shifts mean I'm flat out when on the ice and never quite get a rhythm like I do in soccer where I eventually settle into a steady pace... like a long distance runner. Anyway, ag…

It really depends on the individual. I’m like you, I prefer regular running over sprints, and could happily run a full football game, but I’d be dead after 5 minutes of full-court basketball. Some of my friends are the opposite, they could kill it on the court for ages but wouldn’t last 30 minutes in football. Some of it is due to conditioning, but like all athletic performances there is also an element of genetics.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#145

Post by Gatsky » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:02 AM UTC

gregorymichael wrote: post #6

tl;dr after 11 draws, Carlsen offered a draw from a superior position in the final game to head into the short-format tiebreaks, where: > he is ranked No. 1 in all three formats (classical, rapid, and blitz). Caruana is ranked 10th and 18th in rapid and blitz respectively. Critics are appalled that he didn't fight for the win out of sense of honor. I don't see how this is different than, for instance, fouling at the…

My theory is this - obviously they are closely matched. Losing in the 12th game would make Caruana very hungry to come back again and again.

Now, consider what happens if Carlsen crushes Caruana in the rapid or blitz rounds - this sends the message "you will never beat me at rapid or blitz, and no amount of preparation will save you". Caruana will never forget this. This will be in his his head the next time they play, and the pressure to avoid the tiebreaker rounds will be huge.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#146

Post by StanfordChess » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:06 AM UTC

hardmath123 wrote: post #143

StanfordChess wrote: post #136

Hi all, for those planning to watch tomorrow's rapid/blitz tiebreakers live, Stanford Chess team will be livestreaming analysis and commentary at https://www.twitch.tv/stanfordchess and https://lichess.org/@/StanfordChess . Our team captain is GM Daniel Naroditsky, one of the top blitz and bullet players in the world, who regularly beats Magnus in the LiChess Titled Arena. And our coach is NM Jordy Mont-Reynaud, a ~2…

Can folks at Stanford come by and watch live? (This is the first I've heard of the Stanford Chess Club…)

NM Jordy Mont-Reynaud will be live streaming from the CoHo at 7am. All Stanford students and affiliates are encouraged to join for commentary + banter! Normally we have a room reserved at Tresidder Old Union, but we got a bit of a late start on this so we're winging it for tomorrow.

Slack group open to Stanford students/alums/faculty: https://stanfordchess.slack.com

FB page for general public: https://www.facebook.com/stanfordchessdotorg/

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#147

Post by brohee » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:17 AM UTC

Foobar8568 wrote: post #138

mdnormy wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about Golden Goal. Soccer already have that from as long as I remember. Then it was "downgraded" to Silver Goal. Only both to be abolished later on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_goal Wiki mentioned "The golden goal and silver goal were widely perceived as failed experiments" but I'm in the opposing camp. Golden Goal is freaking exciting as a spectator.

I remember a lot of bitching over the French national teams wining by the Golden goal in 98 world cup and 2000 European one. And I had forgotten the old term of sudden death.

It was only European cup. World Cup was a very clean 3-0.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#148

Post by freyir » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:34 AM UTC

Santosh83 wrote: post #120

freyir wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leela is an inferior chess engine, and Leela and Stockfish were given equal time. In the human match, Carlsen and Caruana are closely matched and Carlsen had a significant clock advantage. The engines are playing out the position here: https://www.chess.com/computer-chess-championship

Why do you say Leela is an inferior engine? Genuinely curious. Is it just a matter of the neural net not up to speed (and thus a matter of time before Leela is on par with Stockfish), or something else that will always handicap it?

I should say, it's presently inferior. It has repeatedly placed behind Stockfish in recent TCEC and CCCC tournaments. I imagine it will surpass Stockfish at some point.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#149

Post by _ph_ » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:42 AM UTC

thrower123 wrote: post #107

colmvp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. I mean, I get it, football has a huge pitch and it'd probably be ridiculous to have guys exhausted, barely able to jog at the 150th minute. That said, one of the things I love about NHL playoff hockey is that without compromise, it's first goal wins overtime, where players are willing to do ever…

I fervently believe that soccer would be a much more entertaining game if the substitution rules were significantly loosened. When I played in high school, substitution was allowed on any dead ball situation, and we effectively used something like a hockey line shift, with midfielders shuttling in and out every five minutes. The result was that you could play at a much higher tempo than if you had to conserve energy…

There was a very good rule change recently: if a game goes to overtime, all teams can do one more exchange. This allows teams to safely use up their regular 3 changes without having pressure to save one change for a possible overtime.

But watching "friendship" games between national teams where often there are much relaxed change numbers (these games are the one opportunity for the national trainers to experiment widely with the team setup), they tend to be pretty bad. Changing the compositon of a team strongly has a huge potential to be very disruptive. This shows how much football is actually a team play.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#150

Post by ctchocula » Wed, Nov 28, 2018, 9:59 AM UTC

pilpulpitbull wrote: post #132

slowmovintarget wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is why there needs to be a separate women's tournament. It's chess, not football. Edit: I suppose that makes sense to encourage more women to play if that was an issue. (I'm used to more casual clubs where membership requires only interest and showing up.)

We are a sexually dimorphic species. Physical differences between men and women are not limited to muscle mass.

Citation needed.

In lieu of such data, a simpler explanation is that boys are more encouraged to play chess from a young age than girls. This results in more teenage boys playing chess, a deeper talent pool, and thus better top ranked players.

This is similar to what is seen in soccer. Even though China has much bigger population than Holland by almost 100x, the number of Chinese kids playing organized soccer is less than Holland by at least 10x.