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What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

economist.com

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Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#101

Post by xbmcuser »

simonh wrote: post #61
jstanley wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

Let me count the ways. * All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example. * All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs. * The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example. * Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this. * Many goo…

Many of the financial services/bank s have already moved out they won't go back even if the actual brexit doesn't happen

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#102

Post by sys_64738 »

Theresa May has actually found the straight line through this brexit chaos. She knows in her head that the UK Parliament will vote it down and that provides her with the platform to say she got the best deal possible but it was rejected by the UK Parliament. She can then resign with her head held high.

I think this is her exist strategy from the PM role in the UK.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#103

Post by kyriakos »

graeme wrote: post #100
dingaling wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the whole membership process again Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it. The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?

I'm not sure I follow. Once the UK is out, it's out. In that case, to rejoin it would have to follow the process to join, no? I mean, if it was 3 weeks later and no laws had changed maybe not, but past a certain point regulations would have diverged etc

Even if laws hadn't changed the other members will use it as an opportunity to take away some of the special deals that UK had pre brexit.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#104

Post by nicky0 »

Spivak wrote: post #47
tdb7893 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if for things like joining our leaving the EU we should make them get at least 60ish percent of the vote. Simple majorities have a tendency to ping-pong back and forth so it doesn't seem optional for huge systemic changes.

I absolutely agree but that's the kind of decision that has to be made a priori. Moving the goalposts after the results are in isn't very democratic.

I'm not suggesting moving the goalposts now. I'm just saying the whole thing was misconceived in the first place.

Cameron, when he called the referendum, never beleived it would go Leave. All the polls at that time said Remain would win easily. He believed it would be a clear Remain and we would all move on.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#105

Post by nicky0 »

dash2 wrote: post #26
nicky0 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The referendum should have never have been specified with a simple majority rule.

There's no way to fudge this decision. Let's agree that if everybody wanted Brexit, we should have Brexit. And if everybody wanted to remain, we should have remain. Then, start with everyone wanting Brexit, and flip opinions towards remain, one by one. At some point the group decision flips. Political decisions are just like that. Majority rule is not to blame.

We can agree that deciding major changes on a simple majority referendum is a foolish endeavour, and a recipe for division and bitterness.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#106

Post by nicky0 »

Spivak wrote: post #21
nicky0 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently, yes.

How else do you want democracy to work? The people agreed on a system of rules order to decide between two directions and a decision was made. If the government can just decide to not carry out the will of the people (however thin the margins are) then why have a vote at all?

I want parliament to do its job we elected them to do. I want it not to use referendums to make major far-reaching decisions on simple majorities. We elect representatives to govern on our behalf not ask us what to do with a referendum at every turn.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#107

Post by vixen99 »

simonh wrote: post #68
Findeton wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK parliament voting system, you vote for the individual, not the party list. Thus MPs won't do anything that makes them lose votes. Voting for a bad deal (even though it's the best deal you'll get) will make you lose votes in the next election, even more so if the deal is actually approved. It's very easy to criticize from the fences when that gets you more votes. That's basically the reason why Boris Johnson…

I think that’s why Nigel Farage quit politics immediately. No way that /edit/ guy /end edit/ is going to risk taking any responsibility for the consequences.

That's certainly the perjorative view. On the other hand extreme pressure and death threats might cause one to wonder if the game is worth continuing. How many of us would enjoy that? Given that the whole point of UKIP (as far as I can see) was to ignite the Brexit debate leading to the referendum, the job was done and UKIP had zero chance of doing anything else. Farage failed to win a parliamentary seat so why would be subject himself to further non-profitable activities? He was a successful trader prior to his entry into politics.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#108

Post by kamaal »

Zigurd wrote: post #45
jdlyga wrote: post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

The real problem is not majoritarianism, or democracy. The problem is that the referendum should have been framed as "Start exit negotiations." If it's not framed that way, it amounts to buying the outcome of a risky multi-year process with a lot of downside risk and tens of billions in costs sight unseen. It is not antidemocratic to have a referendum on "Were the negotiations a success?" Nor does it make sense that…

>>The problem is that the referendum should have been framed as "Start exit negotiations."

Very true.

Many people thought voting for `leave` meant making the immigrants leave. They were interviewing people on BBC and people on the streets were approaching non-white people and saying `We voted leave, so you guys leave now.`

The vote should have been framed as `UK should remain in the EU`, `UK should exit the EU`.

That would have probably worked better than framing it as `Should the immigrants remain`, `Should the immigrant leave`.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#109

Post by kamaal »

simonh wrote: post #68
Findeton wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK parliament voting system, you vote for the individual, not the party list. Thus MPs won't do anything that makes them lose votes. Voting for a bad deal (even though it's the best deal you'll get) will make you lose votes in the next election, even more so if the deal is actually approved. It's very easy to criticize from the fences when that gets you more votes. That's basically the reason why Boris Johnson…

I think that’s why Nigel Farage quit politics immediately. No way that /edit/ guy /end edit/ is going to risk taking any responsibility for the consequences.

Plus his kids hold German passports: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/nigel-farag...

Pretty hypocritical to keep spouting anti-immigrant ant--EU rhetoric when you have different plans for your own kids.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#110

Post by tim333 »

simonh wrote: post #67
clarkmoody wrote: post #2

Some Brexiteers favour a radical response: get rid of all tariffs on imports, as Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have done. Extravagant assumptions about the benefits of this explain why some pro-Brexit economists see no deal as much less damaging than most of their colleagues. But tariff abolition would have huge effects on agriculture and some types of manufacturing. The government has no plans for such an extirpati…

Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have developed under their respective trade regimes. Britain has developed under another and has huge industries employing millions of people dependent on the current trade regime. Switching to a different model in a controlled way has a reasonable chance to be beneficial in the long run. Switching off the conditions under which the current system operates would be guaranteed to be cata…

Although I'm a remainer I kind of like the HK/Singa no import duties system. From a business point of view a big plus is simplicity - instead of lots of regulations you just import / export stuff. I spent a while in HK aged 19 when it was considered a low wage place (58% of UK GPD) and now they are wealthier than us.

I agree a no deal brexit would be a mess. If you were going to switch to a HK system you'd want to plan it over some years.

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