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What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

economist.com

91–100 of 112 posts

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#91
post #7

Some Brexiteers favour a radical response: get rid of all tariffs on imports, as Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have done. Extravagant assumptions about the benefits of this explain why some pro-Brexit economists see no deal as much less damaging than most of their colleagues. But tariff abolition would have huge effects on agriculture and some types of manufacturing. The government has no plans for such an extirpati…

How's the farming community doing in Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore?

It is sort of ok. Graduate even said it is hard work but earn more than the salary working in office.

But HONG kong is of different scale and no major industry. Part of UK will be ok but other part like car,airbus... may be not. Not sure about clearance but you can be a Euro centre not in Eu as Rmb is very active here. Hence it is a shift not impossible.

May be a total zero tariff is an option. may say the other side is not. But then a lot of tourist will come to shop.

It is the change that is hard.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#92
post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Once the UK is out, it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#93
post #73
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The referendum should have never have been specified with a simple majority rule.

There should never have been a referendum, without a party in power having a policy to leave. The big problem we have is that Brexit was not the policy of any political party, so who is responsible for implementing it? May is our legal, rightful Prime Minister selected by due process, but she was a remainer. The only right way to do this would be for the people to elect a party with implementing brexit as policy, and…

That is what I feel listen to the bbc debate. Odd. The exit guy Boris even dare to stand up and ask question.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#94

Please, I come to HN to get away from Brexit. This is a flame war topic, can we ditch it please mods?

It is a reality you have to face. We have to face. I read and so far the argument is great and informative. You can exit by closing this tab. But discussion is just text. No reason to stop.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#95
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Depends on what you define as net benefit... Self-sufficiency, especially regarding basic supplies like food, is hugely important for any independent nation. Personally, tariffs on/protectionism of food industry are what I support the most. Broader picture, net benefit doesn't mean just economic benefit. I support Trump's tariffs on China and hope EU would do the…

Only if the tariffs were clearly linked to polluting and tax-evading. Otherwise they provide no incentive to stop. I don't believe Trump has linked his tariffs to pollution or tax-evasion. He's been talking about China's industrial subsidies, monetary policy and intellectual property theft. Simply sanctioning bad countries isn't good in itself, unless it forces them to become better.

Indeed, but most nations/governments are so deeply entrenched in "free trade" that they can't just transition directly to "fair trade" (for some definition of "fair"...) without going through the "no free trade" stage first. Anyways, let's hope it continues in this direction and doesn't derail along the way.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they come from Chile then there is likely no tariff into the EU due to the FTA. Perhaps you could drop the FUD? https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/25/brexit-mps-tweet-about-foreig...

I didn't bring up Chile, my parent did. Replace "Chile" in our comments with "arbitrary country X" if you prefer.

arbitrary country x, apart from all the ones that already have FTA with the EU I suppose.

It is complete FUD

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#97
post #92
post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Once the UK is out , it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.

> the whole membership process again

Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it.

The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ECJ is ruling on whether the EU members can stop the UK withdrawing it's notice. The EU members will of course be bound by this, if Britain withdraws it's notice to leave it will still be in the EU so of course it will be bound. You have a habit of jumping on these EU threads j? It feels like trolling to me.

The reason I comment a lot in these threads is because lots of other people post things in these threads that appear (to me) obviously wrong. There seems to be this notion that governments are what makes the world go round, and people going about their daily lives do so only by the governments' blessings. I don't believe that is the way the world works, or is even a useful way to model how the world works. I believe…

> abolishing tariffs

Like by having a single market and customs union? Many FTA. Abolishing tariffs is what the EU does. 1 standard, no tariff, less government.

>abolishing immigration restrictions

Free movement of labour is one of the four freedoms of the EU. The main reason Teresa May is citing for leaving the single market is so she can increase immigration restrictions

The EU does not increase government. It sets common standards that mean trade is much easier, and encourage the rest of the world to abide by those common standards and to enjoy the same freedoms. Instead of every country having customs rules with each other, a country outside the EU can make a deal with one authority and then trade with all of the countries.

Chile is a good example. I imported from Chile in my last job. It was a doddle, because Chile have a FT deal. I apply Common Customs Tariffs of 0. Before the EU a small South American producer would have had to have worked out a deal with each of the 27 states, each with their own standards.

If you want to license medicines in the EU, one process covers the whole EU. That is less government! If you want to sell electronics, again the CE mark covers all of Europe and many other countries. If you match EU standards in any area you get equivalent treatment to a local producer. That is less government.

The UK is working out how it is going to replace all of those agencies with new ones. That is more government doing the exact same thing.

On the contrary, all I hear about on the news about the US trade is about Trump and his trade war with China (this time). When he tried the same with the EU, he was dealing with a much larger market for US goods, and the EU took the sting out of it. Lower tariffs and less government.

I cannot for the life of me see how having more independent nation states with their own trade deals will create anything other than more different tariffs, protectionist regimes and more government.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#99
post #58

I think at this point we can safely say that the Brexit was a protest vote against immigration that got out of hand (in that it got >50% of the vote) and the UK is now left to pick up the pieces. Look into this for even a few minutes and you'll come to a conclusion that leaving the EU is a ridiculous idea. - The Good Friday agreement gives the UK the obligation to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland…

> The UK wants a deal like Norway or Switzerland. The EU, who wants to not encourage further separation, will fight against this

I don't understand that argument. The EU is a voluntary-membership organisation. There should be no consideration of 'punishment' in the face of leaving.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#100
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the UK is out , it's not so easy to get back in on the same terms. They'd have to go through the whole membership process again.

> the whole membership process again Again? The UK never joined the EU through a membership process, the EU evolved around it. The terms would be different if the UK joined the EU by proper mechanism, but perhaps we shouldn't want to be in a club which has different rules for old vs new anyway?

I'm not sure I follow. Once the UK is out, it's out. In that case, to rejoin it would have to follow the process to join, no?

I mean, if it was 3 weeks later and no laws had changed maybe not, but past a certain point regulations would have diverged etc

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