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A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

bbc.com

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Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#81

Post by nradov »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #75
mikeash wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not require other nations to defend Ukraine from a non-nuclear attack.

While not required in a legal sense they certainly might do so anyway. Ukraine is as entitled to it's sovereignty as any other nation. Just letting the Russians steamroll Ukraine is equally irresponsible. Germany, France, etc are going to (rightfully) have a very, very hard time tolerating (i.e. not coming to the aid of Ukraine) that kind of belligerent behavior in Europe.

No country is entitled to sovereignty. Sovereignty isn't given, it's taken by force. What Russia did by invading Ukraine was terrible, but the Ukrainians essentially let their own country disintegrate and failed to maintain even the slightest deterrent. Coming to their rescue now would create a huge moral hazard: other countries in the region might think they no longer have to defend themselves against Russian aggression because if they get into trouble them NATO will ride in to save them.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#84

Post by m-i-l »

Not mentioned in the article, and almost certainly not known to NATO authorities at the time, but Able Archer 83 came a few weeks after the "1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident"[0]. See also "Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who averted nuclear war, has died"[1].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15273228

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#85

Post by ddalex »

jdlyga wrote: post #83

Everyone really needs to stop with any actions that could be misinterpreted. This is how World War 1 started, a war which no one wanted.

> a war which no one wanted

History would like a word with you: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/world-history/first...

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#86

Post by pseudolus »

interfixus wrote: post #8

1983. The screaiming height of the nuclear scare. I remember it all to well. A very clear and present danger, a daily threat we lived under, some of us aware, most people probably not really. I saw The Day After in a Copenhagen cinema at what I believe was its European premiere, also exactly 35 years ago one of these days. Going home, my young impressionable self was even more spooked than usual: The thing was real,…

If you want to relive the terror I suggest reading the Pulitzer Prize winner "The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy". While its focus is on the Cold War it's still relevant today.

https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Hand-Untold-Dangerous-Legacy/dp/...

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#87

Post by js8 »

graeme wrote: post #78
js8 wrote: post #28

My takeaway from this is that governments do not always act rationally, and therefore MAD doctrine, which assumes that the actors are rational, is a dangerous nonsense.

What's the alternative to MAD? We still have it. People have calmed down, but it remains. I always took it to be a description of the state of play once nukes exist.

The alternative to MAD is slow, painstaking process of nuclear disarmament. Mutually-assured disarmament, if you will.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#88

Post by Stratoscope »

michaelt wrote: post #13

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

Mobile-readable quote:

> But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered.

> “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains.

> [...]

> It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “Soviet intelligence did not act rationally.”

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#90

Post by nicolas_t »

varjag wrote: post #55
lmm wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). And if the US had argued for invading Iraq on that basis, maybe we'd've supported it. But of course we're going to oppose an invasion when its proponents are basing their arguments on a blatant lie like the 45 minute claim. (If the US/UK thought there was a…

Indeed, if we look back France committed 18,000 troops for the first Gulf War that was widely considered a just cause. Similarly most of the NATO allies supported the USA in Afghanistan. But that going into a war on a false pretext is morally corrupt, and fortunately most Western governments were above that.

Not to mention that the French total had a cosy relationship with Saddam Hussein's government after they negotiated in 1997 for access. It was really not in the interest of France to have a war in Irak
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