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Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

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Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#51
post #39

Facebook? What about Youtube then? http://www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?section_id=715&#... Reality is Yahoo wasn't going to make revenue after time, FB and YT probably will.

True, Youtube is also questionable. BUT, Youtube got bought by Google, and Google does generate massive revenue, so it's a different story.

Google probably also has some of the lowest costs for bandwidth and infrastructure in the industry; very important for youtube, as it uses so goddamn much.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#52
post #49

"Not because of revenue they're actually making"? HUH?! Estimates for 2010 are 1-2 BILLION in revenue for Facebook. Fueling this revenue are companies like Zynga and Groupon - hardly bubbly companies... These guys are making real/sustainable revenue. Facebook is smack dab in the middle of social gaming and stands to be the AppStore of that world (WIN). Their targeting marketing has proven to be a huge driver of compa…

You're right about revenue, but I'd contend that Zynga and Groupon are incredibly bubbly companies.

I'd agree that groupon (unless their CEO's statements are to be trusted) is not entirely sustainable, but i don't think they are going to disappear completely. Additionally I don't think social gaming is going to go away either. It might look completely different as browsers, and users evolve, but its going to be here for a while. There is always going to be a social platform, and right now its facebook.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#53
post #49

"Not because of revenue they're actually making"? HUH?! Estimates for 2010 are 1-2 BILLION in revenue for Facebook. Fueling this revenue are companies like Zynga and Groupon - hardly bubbly companies... These guys are making real/sustainable revenue. Facebook is smack dab in the middle of social gaming and stands to be the AppStore of that world (WIN). Their targeting marketing has proven to be a huge driver of compa…

You're right about revenue, but I'd contend that Zynga and Groupon are incredibly bubbly companies.

Hrm, maybe. I think social/casual gaming with virtual goods are here to stay (they've been growing like crazy in asian countries for years and years). Groupon isn't particularly defensible, but the model seems to scale infinitely, and restaurants.com has been doing it with less splash for years. Groupon's 50% margins will get trimmed over time and certain types of merchants will realize that it's a pile of fail for their business... But why won't Groupon and it's ilk always be a great deal for businesses like restaurants and spas (especially if they start allowing for blackouts on weekends?).

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#54
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about revenue, but I'd contend that Zynga and Groupon are incredibly bubbly companies.

I'd agree that groupon (unless their CEO's statements are to be trusted) is not entirely sustainable, but i don't think they are going to disappear completely. Additionally I don't think social gaming is going to go away either. It might look completely different as browsers, and users evolve, but its going to be here for a while. There is always going to be a social platform, and right now its facebook.

Pets and toys never went out of style either, but that didn't stop bubbly companies specializing in each from blowing up. I think Zynga is better positioned, but they are a very shady company and that makes me pause. It feels like a pump with VC and dump to IPO like the dot com era gave us.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#55
post #43
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, Youtube is also questionable. BUT, Youtube got bought by Google, and Google does generate massive revenue, so it's a different story.

I'm sorry but Youtube questionable? Youtube is the next logical step for advertisement from TV. Also they're close to being profitable, and if Google TV actually gets some market it will propel Youtube into profitability.

Questionable, meaning it's interesting to question their business model.

The answer might seem obvious to you, but it's interesting to question non-the-less.

I for one, am not so sure their business model is sustainable.

My point was, it's a different question.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#56
post #44
post #25

I don't work for Facebook and have no inside knowledge, but here's what I think. It helps to step back and take a look at the big picture. Companies have a certain number of advertising dollars. Companies that are really big in the consumer space spend large chunks of their revenue on advertising: consumer goods (soap, etc.), durables, autos, pharma, etc. This money is not going away anytime soon. Now, if you're an a…

Thanks! That's a very well thought out argument :) The idea that facebook knows alot about me is somewhat scary :/ The problem I see is, people don't come on facebook to find stuff, they come to checkout what their friends are doing. According to this link http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme , the ad revenue is coming from people "experimenting" with FB Ads. Soon they'll all realize that it doe…

"The problem I see is, people don't come on facebook to find stuff, they come to checkout what their friends are doing."

I think I addressed this in my comment. I don't think there's much value in advertising on FB itself (which is what I meant when I wrote the "bazillions of pageviews" sentence). You are right, people who are on FB don't care much for the ads.

The real value is in FB becoming an ad provider (or filter), and supplying ads to 3rd party sites. Because they know so much about you, and the quality of what they know is so high, they will be able to command a huge premium for using this information to pick the right ads for you.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#57
post #55
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but Youtube questionable? Youtube is the next logical step for advertisement from TV. Also they're close to being profitable, and if Google TV actually gets some market it will propel Youtube into profitability.

Questionable, meaning it's interesting to question their business model. The answer might seem obvious to you, but it's interesting to question non-the-less. I for one, am not so sure their business model is sustainable. My point was, it's a different question.

Youtube's business model being questionable means that you think that it dubious at best and and the authority of the claim of its profitability is disputable. Eric Schmidt already said Youtube is very close to profitability, and should actually become a big revenue stream for Google in the coming years.

You need to have in mind that Youtube gets 2 billion views per day, and has advertisements directly on the content they serve. That's huge! I'd say that it's even bigger than Facebook's current advertisement model by a mile, even though Facebook obviously has a much higher number of views per day.

As the years roll by hardware, bandwidth, and manpower requirements for Youtube will invariably go down exponentially. If Youtube is close to being profitable now, in two years not only will it's revenue stream grow, but it's expenses will be diminishing also. Youtube was probably one of the smartest acquisitions on Google's portfolio, and it will no doubt be a source of revenue for them.

In any case, Youtube's profitability and sustainability might not be written on stone yet, but they have been far from being 'questionable' a long time ago.

Re: Ask HN: Is Facebook benefiting from a ponzi scheme? a bubble?

#58
post #44
post #25

I don't work for Facebook and have no inside knowledge, but here's what I think. It helps to step back and take a look at the big picture. Companies have a certain number of advertising dollars. Companies that are really big in the consumer space spend large chunks of their revenue on advertising: consumer goods (soap, etc.), durables, autos, pharma, etc. This money is not going away anytime soon. Now, if you're an a…

Thanks! That's a very well thought out argument :) The idea that facebook knows alot about me is somewhat scary :/ The problem I see is, people don't come on facebook to find stuff, they come to checkout what their friends are doing. According to this link http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme , the ad revenue is coming from people "experimenting" with FB Ads. Soon they'll all realize that it doe…

I've "experimented" with Facebook ads and found they work very well. I'll be using them again (and I'm not the only one).

The targeting is really good, the ads are cheap, and you can choose CPM or CPC. What's not to like?

(I think you'll find that a lot of people who say things like this are also the kind of people who can't believe people click on Google ads.)

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