A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three • Hacker News Board

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#31

Post by adventured » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:01 AM UTC

varjag wrote: post #27

adventured wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

There are a couple dozen vile governments all over the world doing terrible things to their people at any given time. That alone doesn't explain why France is so aggressively interested in keeping the US in the Syria conflict. That same exact justification that you just mentioned applied equally to Iraq, Saddam had massacred and brutalized his own people for a long time.

You don't see France egging on the US to get militarily involved in Venezuela for example. What's going on there is a human disaster of a similar scale as Syria, with the Maduro dictatorship brutalizing and starving the people, and millions fleeing the country. There is rarely a shortage of civil wars and other assorted internal conflicts to get involved in around the world. So why is France specifically so amped up to keep the US in Syria?

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#32

Post by sacado2 » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:02 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #25

varjag wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, most of the Western governments don't do that. The reason "coalition of the willing" was so thin is that aside the US and the UK few bought that. France have threatened veto in the UN, so it was not put to the vote… that's also how the whole "freedom fries" idiocy took off. And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Not sure why you've been downvoted there. Regarding Syria, the same thing happened as with Iraq.

In Iraq, the US and UK said "Saddam has mass destruction weapons, we must attack him", and the French said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". USA said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. France did not support the attack.

In Syria, USA, UK and France said "Bachar use chemical weapons on his population, we must attack him", and Russia said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". France said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. Russia did not support the attack.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#33

Post by emilsedgh » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:10 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #25

varjag wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, most of the Western governments don't do that. The reason "coalition of the willing" was so thin is that aside the US and the UK few bought that. France have threatened veto in the UN, so it was not put to the vote… that's also how the whole "freedom fries" idiocy took off. And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

I think the key is "stay" (vs. initiate)

U.S. started the war on Iraq for no reason but pulling out the troops too early was a mistake that allowed ISIS to exist.

Pulling out of Syria in its current form might create a similar vacuum of power that allowed ISIS to exist.

Asking the U.S. to stay in Syria is not comparable to how U.S. started the Iraq war.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#34

Post by arethuza » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:12 AM UTC

krig wrote: post #29

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is misleading nonsense. In a real war most targets would be barraged by MIRVs, some of which would be ground bursts specifically designed to maximise the effects of fall out plumes across otherwise survivable areas. One way or another, your initial duck-and-cover survival won't last long.

It's also misleading because it's talking about a bomb 1/10th the size of the Hiroshima nuclear detonation, while today, even just India and Pakistan alone have nuclear capabilities that are a hundred times beyond that. The implications not just from the initial strikes but the infrastructural devastation that would follow are impossible to estimate.

I suspect the kind of civil defence training described on that page would probably help with a small scale terrorist level attack. However, I don't think it would achieve very much in a full scale attack and certainly not the scale of attacks likely during the 1980s and on densely populated areas of Europe.

Where I sit now in Scotland is within range of about 5 different high value Cold War targets - I don't think Duck and Cover would achieve very much.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#35

Post by sacado2 » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:13 AM UTC

varjag wrote: post #27

adventured wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

Khaddaffi (not sure about spelling) was a friend of France just a few years before he got killed. He was even invited to put his tent in the gardens of the Élysée by newly elected president Sarkozy, four years before. And back then, Khaddaffi was not especially a benevolent dictator.

And there are tons of counter examples. For example, Eritrea is recognized as one of the worst dictatorship in the world, and we have no troops over here to free the people of Eritrea.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#36

Post by mockingbirdy » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:14 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #31

varjag wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

There are a couple dozen vile governments all over the world doing terrible things to their people at any given time. That alone doesn't explain why France is so aggressively interested in keeping the US in the Syria conflict. That same exact justification that you just mentioned applied equally to Iraq, Saddam had massacred and brutalized his own people for a long time. You don't see France egging on the US to get m…

It's about the refugees. Many EU countries lack basic decency and risk to destroy EU because of Syrian refugees.

Solving the crisis there is indirectly one of the interests of the EU. The current situation also strengthens the position of Russia in the Middle East which is not in European interest.

Disclaimer: I'm from Germany. We have a shift to the right in most EU countries. One of the reasons the Britains left the EU was the refugee crisis - populists used this to scare the voters. This concept was also very successful to get votes in Germany with AfD (alternative party for Germany, right-wing).

Would love to hear other opinions instead of getting downvotes.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#37

Post by NeedMoreTea » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:16 AM UTC

jmnicolas wrote: post #15

krig wrote: post #12

I find calling the potential deployment of nuclear missiles at this point ”world war three” slightly misleading. A war has a beginning and an end. There is no end other than the end of the world as we know it on the other side of such strikes. As the exercise concluded in the article, ”Most of the world was destroyed. Billions were dead. Civilisation ended.”

Sadly a nuclear war is "highly" survivable as long as you know to duck and cover once you see the flash. I say "sadly" because it's not as big a deterrent as we thought. You can read how to avoid 90% of the deaths here : http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

If you'd left it at the first sentence I'd have read it as nicely pitched sarcasm.

If it's a single Hiroshima scale device, sure, it'll probably help some. If countries are exchanging their deterrent missiles, no, you're not going to avoid 90% of the deaths.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#38

Post by SCHiM » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:17 AM UTC

sacado2 wrote: post #32

adventured wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Not sure why you've been downvoted there. Regarding Syria, the same thing happened as with Iraq. In Iraq, the US and UK said "Saddam has mass destruction weapons, we must attack him", and the French said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". USA said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. France did not support the attack. In Syria, USA, UK and France said "Bachar use chemical weapons on hi…

How do you mean no proof? There's numerous reports by impartial agencies documenting the use of chemical weapons since early 2014.

There is no failure to provide evidence, only the usual conflicts.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#39

Post by varjag » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:17 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #31

varjag wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

There are a couple dozen vile governments all over the world doing terrible things to their people at any given time. That alone doesn't explain why France is so aggressively interested in keeping the US in the Syria conflict. That same exact justification that you just mentioned applied equally to Iraq, Saddam had massacred and brutalized his own people for a long time. You don't see France egging on the US to get m…

Iraq wasn't in the state of unrest at the time of invasion, although yes, in principle Saddam was as murderous dictator as the other two. Arab spring would most decidedly have flared up his Iraq as well.

Venezuela crisis is not anywhere on the scale of outright war in Syria and Libya. It is also well outside the reach of feasible French force projection. France however is involved in a number of conflicts elsewhere in francophone Africa, relatively low profile as the interventions have stabilizing effect.

With Libya and Syria we also had as close to A/B test in history as we get. What if we interfere in a massacre, and what if we watch from the sidelines in exchange for deal with Iran? The answer is apparently two orders of magnitude more deaths, displacement and human suffering.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#40

Post by arethuza » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 10:19 AM UTC

RobertoG wrote: post #30

arethuza wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the politician's syllogism: - We must do something - This is something - Therefore, we must do this. After 9/11 the US had to do something , Afghanistan wasn't enough, so do Iraq.

So, they choose Iraq randomly? The idea of 'doing something' about Iraq was a lot older. 9/11 was just the excuse. When you read about the subject it's interesting to realize how many people in Washington was against that war, including the Pentagon and the State Department, but powerful interest prevailed. From https://www.haaretz.com/1.4764706 : "Is the Iraq war the great neoconservative war? It's the war the neoco…

I agree, definitely not random - it was sitting on the shelf waiting for someone to find an excuse to "do" it:

"Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable."

Milton Friedman