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A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

bbc.com

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Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#12
I find calling the potential deployment of nuclear missiles at this point ”world war three” slightly misleading. A war has a beginning and an end. There is no end other than the end of the world as we know it on the other side of such strikes.

As the exercise concluded in the article, ”Most of the world was destroyed. Billions were dead. Civilisation ended.”

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#13

  But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there
  was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses,
  that’s what the spies delivered.

  “These people were close to the West, they lived in the
  West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but
  they reported what they were told to report,” Jones
  explains. 
  [...]
  It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of
  the Soviet system,” says Jones, “Soviet intelligence did
  not act rationally.”
Modern western governments will do precisely the same thing; the politicians ask for a dossier saying Iraq has weapons of mass destruction they can launch in 45 minutes? Then that's what they get.

I always assumed this was seen as a feature rather than a bug - i.e. that politicians choose and instruct spy agency bosses to be politically compliant, rather than to produce reports that are unbiased and strictly factual.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#14

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

I can strongly recommend the book "The Spy and the Traitor" about Oleg Gordievsky and MI6:

https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/279/279582/the-spy-and-the-t...

It goes into quite a lot of detail about what it was like to work in the KGB at that time.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#15
post #12

I find calling the potential deployment of nuclear missiles at this point ”world war three” slightly misleading. A war has a beginning and an end. There is no end other than the end of the world as we know it on the other side of such strikes. As the exercise concluded in the article, ”Most of the world was destroyed. Billions were dead. Civilisation ended.”

Sadly a nuclear war is "highly" survivable as long as you know to duck and cover once you see the flash.

I say "sadly" because it's not as big a deterrent as we thought.

You can read how to avoid 90% of the deaths here : http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#16
On a smaller scale, that is, like michaelt pointed out, party of every government that has authoritarian figures in it. When you reel the people around you with fear, you will get inaccurate information. That is one of the reasons why, if you don't build an extensive surveillance state that works really well, such governments usually don't last long.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#17

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

I'm pretty sure they just tell them: -We need something... find it or make it, I don't care...

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#18

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

The highest level politicians that took us into Iraq knew there were no WMD. They merely needed a good enough excuse to do it.

We've got four star general - US Presidential candidate, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander right before 9/11 - Wesley Clark admitting it in public on YouTube. I'll never understand why the most important policy admission of the last 30 years is intentionally ignored in all discussion of what the West is doing in Iraq, Syria, Libya, et al. This is the Western powers - led by the US - looking to strip Russia's power out of the Middle East (or at least break it). According to Clark, particularly before China completes its rise to power (which would present a demand to dilute focus, weakening the ability to challenge Russia's strategic goals). These proxy conflicts haven't stopped for a single day since WW2. Don't take my word for it, or Clark's for that matter, just look at the powers in Syria wrestling over who gets to keep or acquire influence (the US/West v Russia).

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#19
post #12

I find calling the potential deployment of nuclear missiles at this point ”world war three” slightly misleading. A war has a beginning and an end. There is no end other than the end of the world as we know it on the other side of such strikes. As the exercise concluded in the article, ”Most of the world was destroyed. Billions were dead. Civilisation ended.”

Sadly a nuclear war is "highly" survivable as long as you know to duck and cover once you see the flash. I say "sadly" because it's not as big a deterrent as we thought. You can read how to avoid 90% of the deaths here : http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

This is misleading nonsense. In a real war most targets would be barraged by MIRVs, some of which would be ground bursts specifically designed to maximise the effects of fall out plumes across otherwise survivable areas.

One way or another, your initial duck-and-cover survival won't last long.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#20

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

The highest level politicians that took us into Iraq knew there were no WMD. They merely needed a good enough excuse to do it. We've got four star general - US Presidential candidate, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander right before 9/11 - Wesley Clark admitting it in public on YouTube. I'll never understand why the most important policy admission of the last 30 years is intentionally ignored in all discussion of what…

It's the politician's syllogism:

- We must do something

- This is something

- Therefore, we must do this.

After 9/11 the US had to do something, Afghanistan wasn't enough, so do Iraq.

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