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The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

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Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#71
post #49

I just built a home. One thing I noticed: Some builders are really stupid about reading the market and knowing what people are willing to pay. They load homes up with luxury features and then wonder why their homes sit vacant. My builder has a vacant home in my neighborhood. He ran Ethernet to all rooms, and put in other silly features, and just couldn't comprehend why his price was too high.

How expensive is Ethernet to all rooms? That decision strikes me as a no brainer for any newly built house. Even if no one actually wants Ethernet in all rooms, it guarantees that Ethernet is present in the particular room(s) that the eventual buyer will want it in. And it will still be present in the particular room(s) that the next buyer will want it in. In contrast, if a room is missing Ethernet, it would be far more expensive to add it in after the fact.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#72

I am quite convinced it would be possible to build a pleasantly-looking development of $25,000 sale-value housing at 50 or 70 miles away from the urbanized area and connect it with a fast transit rail to the main urbanization. Empty land should be cheap. Buyers should be plentiful. The reason why this does not happen, is because the bureaucracy prevents it. There seems to be a strong political necessity to make accom…

I think if this was the case, wealthier people would swoop in and buy them up by the dozen, then rent them out for triple their mortgage. They would all be sold in bulk before the builder broke ground. Capitalism is very kind to those who already have capital.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#73

I am quite convinced it would be possible to build a pleasantly-looking development of $25,000 sale-value housing at 50 or 70 miles away from the urbanized area and connect it with a fast transit rail to the main urbanization. Empty land should be cheap. Buyers should be plentiful. The reason why this does not happen, is because the bureaucracy prevents it. There seems to be a strong political necessity to make accom…

You describe the history of American suburban sprawl, ignored the fact that it's wholly unsistainable (as documented in may articles posted here, suburbs go bankrupt in 50-100 years when the maintenance bills and bond payments come due, unless they can force cities to subsidize them), and ignored the fact that is already exists all over the nation.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#74
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you just described a boom. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/housi...

I guess it's a boom for sellers, not for buyers.

A boom for buyers means prices are increasing too, a boom is a boom.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#75
post #25

Fed lowers interest rates with QE and home buying goes up. Fed raises interest rates and home buying goes down. Imagine that. Almost as if this could have all been predicted[0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory

Of course it's been predicted. Economists have predicted 9 of the last 7 recessions.

But besides that, the Fed doing exactly what is was chartered to do and constantly issues press releases about is not a shocking revelation of hetereodox economics.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#76
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Federal Reserve (which orchestrates interest rates to manage inflation and achieve full employment [two of its mandates]) is not (edit: a branch) of the US government, and does not set government policy. Edit: This is incorrect. The Board Of Governors who set interest rates is a part of the federal govrnment as an agency (accountable to Congress), the individual Federal Reserve Banks are not.

> The Federal Reserve (which orchestrates interest rates to manage inflation and achieve full employment [two of its mandates]) is not part of the US government Yes, it is. It's established by US statute, its board of governors is appointed by the President, and its personnel are paid by the US government. It is not considered part of any of the usual three branches of the US government (legislative, executive, judic…

To be fair you are both right. The board of directors is appointed by government officials and the bank was established by the Federal Reserve Act.

The bank is also privately owned and not by any government. I learned this because a technology director at the Dallas bank works with me in our side job.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compounded with the fact that median wages haven't increased that much the last 30 years. Median income has gone up by about 150% (to 2.5x) in nominal terms between 1986 and 2016. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N

Why look at nominal though? Inflation adjusted makes a lot more sense to me, especially when we're talking about household income. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N The story here is quite different - only a 19% increase, and much more unstable over the years. Most of the increase happened before 2000. Almost no change since then.

I ran across an interesting proposal that one of the reasons for poor wage growth is health insurance costs -

Health Care and Other Benefit Costs

As nonwage benefits are beefed up by U.S. employers, such as expanded paid leave and performance-based bonuses, fewer dollars in their total rewards budgets may be available for salary increases.

But health care benefit costs are a prime suspect.

"The rise of health-care costs is the most important reason wages have not increased more for U.S. workers," Nobel economics laureate Edward C. Prescott and Lee E. Ohanian of the Center for the Advanced Study in Economic Efficiency at Arizona State University, wrote in the Wall Street Journal in 2018. "The extra compensation is swallowed up by health-insurance premiums."

A new white paper provides evidence that "the rising values of fringe benefits, such as health insurance, may have offset potential wage gains for middle-income workers" despite falling unemployment. The authors, Jeff Larrimore of the Federal Reserve and David Splinter of the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, contend that when factoring in the cost of health coverage, "total compensation may be higher than previously believed, also implying that employer-sponsored health insurance benefits may represent a larger share of employee compensation."

Economics columnist Robert J. Samuelson wrote in the Washington Post:

    The problem is plain: We'd all like both cheaper health insurance and higher wages, but the way the health-care system is operating today, we might get neither. As insurance premiums get more expensive, inflation-adjusted ("real") wages will continue to stagnate or decline.
https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensatio...

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#78
post #5

Doesn't surprise me, younger millenials won't have a home to sell and will thus have a hard time affording a home in an inflated market. Compounded with the fact that median wages haven't increased that much the last 30 years. Prices have to fall for that group to afford a home.

I really feel like this is it. Debt was introduced to parents of millennials. But it took some time to become institutionalized. Now millennials are in debt right as they get out of college. No matter what college you leave, you can have debt if your parents didn’t pay for your tuition. On top of that, wages have been stagnant. Then there is the credit card debt that is very easy to accumulate is you aren’t careful w…

A home should be about 3x salary at most, so down paymeny is 0.6 years' salary. Did you mean 5 years worth of savings?

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#79

Things have also cooled off in the Palo Alto area. I've seen houses dropped by $400k in the last few months, typically from nearly $2.5M to a bit under $2M. At first I thought it was just to get a bidding war started, but the homes then sold for not much over the lowered price. This is still a far cry from "affordable", but it's a change of pace from the last six years.

I've toured a couple of houses in Palo Alto in the past month. The agents were practically begging us to make an offer below asking price. I thought it was really weird. Of course, even then the prices would still be about double what I would consider reasonable.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#80
post #25

Fed lowers interest rates with QE and home buying goes up. Fed raises interest rates and home buying goes down. Imagine that. Almost as if this could have all been predicted[0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory

And the saddest part of your entire comment is that no one will listen when the economic facts are obvious and stop the madness.
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