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There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

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Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#71

Housing prices are artificially high because of debt and finance. If loans/debt/financing/mortgages were made illegal, then these artificial high housing prices based on the credit line one can obtain rather than what one can actually afford, prices would come down to fair market value. I know people will claim credit is based on what one can afford but that is mental gymnastics (foreclosures, student loan defaults,…

Credit allows people to purchase things beyond their current wealth but rather within their future means to pay (their future productivity and trustworthiness). This is particularly useful for those who aren't born into wealth: Credit is practically the only way for normal folks to access productive capital, such as a home that allows you to avoid paying rent, or an education that in theory makes you more productive…

>This is particularly useful for those who aren't born into wealth: Credit is practically the only way for normal folks to access productive capital

Look at studies on credit it results in bias against minorities. It’s one of the reasons behind the deregulation’s leading to 2008 real estate crisis, the fact that these biases were showing up in home ownership and they tried increaseing homeownership amoung minorities.

That “experiment” greatly failed proving your point, that in a credit based system, a credit rating based on factors such as assets, income, existing liabilities is necessary in determining how much to lend and the risk/interest. I definitely don’t dispute the way the system works, just I think it’s a bad system.

For every rich person who benefits with access to capital they can manage and payback, or normal person who gains a house they struggle with paying for 40 years or more; the otherside, is indebtedness an evil of society (put the 1M defaulted student loan people in this category - the will effectively be paying for that house for 40 years only not for an asset that at least historically will appreciate, but a sunken cost) and what I mentioned before which is a statehood of nearly second class citizenship where one will never gain access to banking services much less credit.

I see your point baby/bath water...why get ride of the system instead of fix the problems. I’d say the credit system creates those problems, and that’s definitely not to say the same bias in homeownership rates/percents wouldn’t show up in more of a cash/capital based system with no credit. But at least those unnecessary and IMO evil classes of society (bad credit/no credit) wouldn’t exist. At minimum I’d be curious about two such systems in the US side by side, and with all the talk/interest in startup cities maybe a non credit based city could be tried - though I can’t solve how it could be created fairly within the existing national system of credit.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#72

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

Do you have any experience with real estate or bonds, or is this just your pet theory.

While this sounds great to people who love to hate on anything financial, it is entirely wrong. You're basically arguing that more risk (larger loan) is cheaper.

But of course, if you were right, you could point to good data in this. (Remember to properly adjust for credit quality which is probably proportional to housing price.)

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#73
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual action doesn't matter. If you're only willing to spend 30% of your take home pay on rent, whereas your sociodemographic twin is willing to pay 50%, they'll outbid you. Incidentally I currently spend 47% of my take-home on rent in London. At 32, buying a property is still out of my reach. There are statistics on this in this related BBC article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42179119

I don’t think they’ll outbid you, they’ll buy a more expensive house.

They will when supply is constrained.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#74

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

The thing to think about is convexity. If everyone is maxing out their budget when rates are 2%, it causes a huge problem for their personal budget when rates go up to 4%. If the rate was originally 10% like a few decades ago, each rate increment would matter a lot less.

Yes, we could be in for a lot of pain if inflation and interest rates rise over the coming years.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#75

Housing prices are artificially high because of debt and finance. If loans/debt/financing/mortgages were made illegal, then these artificial high housing prices based on the credit line one can obtain rather than what one can actually afford, prices would come down to fair market value. I know people will claim credit is based on what one can afford but that is mental gymnastics (foreclosures, student loan defaults,…

Credit allows people to purchase things beyond their current wealth but rather within their future means to pay (their future productivity and trustworthiness). This is particularly useful for those who aren't born into wealth: Credit is practically the only way for normal folks to access productive capital, such as a home that allows you to avoid paying rent, or an education that in theory makes you more productive…

Those that aren't born into wealth - controlled by rents or controlled by debts. Those with capital - can control others by rents or control others by credit. What great options.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#76
post #9

The price of houses is driven by market rents compounded with access to financing. If lenders are willing to finance an investment with 3% yield, then house prices will jump to 33x their annual rent value - it goes without saying that's only possible in low interest markets. The rent itself however is controlled by supply and demand - there needs to be a real person there earning a paycheck and he must have no other…

Years ago in the UK there was a considerable quantity of council owned properties, these were nice places to live with nice rents to pay. There was no shame in living in a council house, but you wouldn't be buying it, so it was not yours. You wouldn't be evicted either or forced to pay through the nose. This worked as a baseline, if you had more money or wanted to live in a posh area (or just the countryside) then yo…

Not only this but there have been other problems caused by making social housing just for the needy rather than ordinary working people. You end up with a concentration of poverty that is hard to escape from, people with no role models and hence gangs and violence.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#77
post #51

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

It's crazy how this isn't more common knowledge that the Economist needs to write an article about it. We're also seeing the same thing recently with tuition prices. There is more money available for student loans so schools just jack up the tuition to meet the supply of money available.

I read an article where they did a supply/demand analysis of tuitions, and found that tuitions might simply be responding to demand. Obviously, there are a lot of factors to consider. But they looked at broader economics for demand (jobs, unemployment) and existing college sizes (instructor and class volume) and found that pricing were correlated with supply/demand changes, with loans playing only a minor role in education costs. It wasn't definitive, but now I view the "loans raise tuitions" crowd as holding an overly simplistic ideological position.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#78
post #21

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

Not everyone is mortgaged - quite a lot of the price rises are driven by foreign capital flight. A few places have figured this out and decided to tax it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/british-c...

I've noticed this annecdotally when trying to buy a home on separate occasions in the New York and LA metro areas. I'm not sure it's foreign capital, but the majority of winning bids were all cash offers above the asking price.

I'd love to see a retrospective analysis on Vancouver's protective measures to see if they did actually help, or if buyers found loopholes, or it wasn't Chinese buyers to begin with.

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#79
post #21

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

Not everyone is mortgaged - quite a lot of the price rises are driven by foreign capital flight. A few places have figured this out and decided to tax it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/british-c...

I mean, yeah, some people don't borrow money to buy a home, but the vast majority (87%) do. A few years ago it was as high as 93% of homes were purchased with a mortgage.

https://smartasset.com/mortgage/what-is-the-typical-down-pay...

Re: There is more to high house prices than constrained supply

#80

Home prices vary inversely with interest rates. Here's how that works: 1) person tells bank they'd like a mortgage to buy a house. 2) banker asks for info on income, expenses, etc. 3) banker estimates persons maximum monthly payment. 4) banker figures out max loan amount based on #3 5) buyer is encouraged by everyone to spend the full amount from #4 Everyone - the seller, their agent, your agent, the bank, and maybe…

I expected this was true for the same reasoning when buying a home, but when I sampled the historical numbers, there was no strong relationship. Bankrate came to similar conclusions: https://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rising-rates-lowe... I think your reasoning is valid, so best I can figure it's because home prices and interest rates are both directly correlated with economic activity. So if the economy is h…

Lowering interest rates increase prices. Rising interest rates reduce volume until inflation catches up. People are unwilling to sell homes when they lose value because there is so much leverage
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