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The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

economist.com

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Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#21

Post by rmason »

colordrops wrote: post #3
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

> A senior marketer for a large American bank says Facebook has made mistakes on measuring engagement, reach, views and other data for no fewer than 43 products. All of the mistakes, he notes, worked in the social-networking giant’s favour. “If these were true errors, wouldn’t you expect at least half to benefit marketers?” he asks. He expects to reduce how much his firm spends on Facebook and predicts that other mar…

This is like bank errors, which always seem to be in favor of the bank...

Love how Wells Fargo is running commercials that highlight how great they were after the SF earthquake in 1906. They don't have a single example after 1906 where they did well by their customers? Here in the Midwest they're selling their banks, reducing their geographic footprint.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#22

Post by rmason »

King-Aaron wrote: post #16
Lordarminius wrote: post #15

Facebook is dead. It's just taking a long time for this to become apparent.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#23

Post by bennyelv »

MagnaEterna wrote: post #18
King-Aaron wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

They are all old. Facebook will probably still be functioning for the next 40 years until it's users finally die and then it's over.

But Instagram users aren't, and there's nothing stopping Facebook from buying whatever the next generation of youth start using to replace Instagram when its time comes.

The question is can they make enough cash to make the model perpetual.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#24

Post by King-Aaron »

rmason wrote: post #22
King-Aaron wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

What matters is the DAU or daily active users. I'd be willing to bet that number is dropping.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...

I honestly don't know the quality of data that statista produces, so take it with a grain of salt. The curve does appear to be dimming towards the end of Q3 '18, but it certainly doesn't appear to be as dire as people make it out to be.

I think there's a heavy dose of IT-industry echo chambering going on here to be honest.

Point of interest: I severely dislike facebook, so not trying to justify anything on their behalf. I just don't see the idea that "facebook is dying" among any peers in any social circles I'm part of. I do wonder if it's different in the United States.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#25

Post by celrod »

colordrops wrote: post #3
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

> A senior marketer for a large American bank says Facebook has made mistakes on measuring engagement, reach, views and other data for no fewer than 43 products. All of the mistakes, he notes, worked in the social-networking giant’s favour. “If these were true errors, wouldn’t you expect at least half to benefit marketers?” he asks. He expects to reduce how much his firm spends on Facebook and predicts that other mar…

This is like bank errors, which always seem to be in favor of the bank...

I found this article fascinating:

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.130...

The jist is, people are extremely bad at basic logic. Unless it's really in their best interest within the context of the story (ie, catching someone cheating you) to be good at them. It makes the difference between 90%.

Presumably, everyone wants to get these logic puzzles correct. It just so happens that we're conveniently hard-of-reasoning except when it suits us.

For reference, the "logic puzzle" is Wason's selection task: which pieces of information do you need to test "if A then B"? The choices (choose exactly as many as needed):

(1) A => ?, (2) !A => ?, (3) ? => B, (4) ? => !B?

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#26

Post by King-Aaron »

MagnaEterna wrote: post #18
King-Aaron wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

They are all old. Facebook will probably still be functioning for the next 40 years until it's users finally die and then it's over.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/376128/facebook-global-u...

> They are all old.

It doesn't appear to strictly be the case.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#27

Post by abhinav3103 »

tokai wrote: post #14
kilroy123 wrote: post #8

From reading some of the stuff Yahoo put out back in their prime. I always got the sense that they thought they would never fall and were maybe a bit invincible. I think Zuckerberg and Facebook in general, are very aware that Facebook is on the decline, they need to diversify. That's why they bought Instagram and used it to flight Snap. That's why they spent such an insane amount on WhatsApp. Zuckerberg knows they ne…

>Zuckerberg knows they need to create or acquire the next big thing to make it in the long Isn't that exactly what yahoo did?

Well! They are not just buying but improving it as well. Whatsapp and Instagram are the best example.

Yahoo could not keep up the quality of any product that was acquired by them.

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#28

Post by TekMol »

SCdF wrote: post #20
King-Aaron wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's around 2.23 billion active users you might want to pass that message on to.

Active users as a statistic reminds me of employment rate. It sounds useful, but it's not really that useful, because it's not really measuring the interesting thing, it just sounds like it is. For example, I think the stat you're quoting is monthly active users. If everyone used to engage with FB 20 times a day but now does so once a day (or once a week, or once a month) the active user count will stay the same, but…

Look at the daily active users then:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#29

Post by SCdF »

TekMol wrote: post #28
SCdF wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Active users as a statistic reminds me of employment rate. It sounds useful, but it's not really that useful, because it's not really measuring the interesting thing, it just sounds like it is. For example, I think the stat you're quoting is monthly active users. If everyone used to engage with FB 20 times a day but now does so once a day (or once a week, or once a month) the active user count will stay the same, but…

Look at the daily active users then: https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...

I get that's closer, but it's still not that useful, because it doesn't actually capture how people use the software and whether that's changing.

People communicate with me via FB messenger, and I respond to them. Otherwise I don't use the app. Am I an active user?

Once a day I open it, realise it's shit and vacuous, and importantly my SIL (the only person I still use it to keep up with) hasn't made any useful updates, so I close it 20 seconds later (this one is me, fwiw). Am I an an active user?

I don't post anything, I just scroll through the same 200 friends I'd had for 10 years, with no movement or differing usage. Am I an active user?

I don't use facebook as a social tool, I have no friends etc, but facebook groups are used in my area to buy and sell things. The second people move to another site I'd happily move. Am I an active user?

Re: The new Yahoo? Facebook should heed the lessons of internet history

#30

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

Being compared to the tobacco giants is one of the business world’s more toxic insults, but it is not the only unflattering analogy circulating. A lower blow is the suggestion that Facebook may become like Yahoo, the once high-flying internet firm that plunged.

The article is by The Economists, but I tend think the societal costs outweigh the financial to shareholders and employees.

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