Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Basic, quality food" isn't the issue. Right now we have an abundance of junk made from subsidized crops. High fructose corn syrup only came into vogue because there was a surplus of corn lying around because of corn subsidies. Food represents such a small part of the average American's budget (about 12%) that the real restraints on healthy eating are convenience (Chicken sandwich---five minutes of ordering and waiti…
Indeed. A lot of the junk food culture comes from agricultural subsidies, not just the obvious corn syrup. I recall (but can't find the link) a study showing that a really high proportion of supermarket products had traces of corn (even meat). When you cross the border you see these effects more clearly. Here in brazil, for example, for most of my childhood McDonalds was an expensive-ish place people went out to eat…
Things Economists Agree On
51–60 of 131 posts
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#52I'm curious about the "Eliminate Agriculture Subsidies" one. I don't know enough to give a good opinion, but it seems to me like that could wind up pricing basic, quality food out of the hands of the poorest people, and they'd either have problems with starvation or be forced to eat junk. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I could have sworn it was The Man that is keeping eggs down at around $3/dozen and milk around $4/gal…
Actually, you'd like federally unsubsided foods. It would mean more locally grown produce and meats. Most of the big agricultural subsidies are for corn and sugar, the really bad stuff. Agricultural subsidies are making the nutrition crisis worse, not better.
In fact, it would probably do precisely the opposite, as food could be outsourced just like the rest of our industry to areas with minimal labor laws to hamper cheap food production.
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#53(1) They have physics envy. In particular, they want to sit in a small, dark, closed room and with just pure thought, with little to no contact with any real economy, come up with some economics version of Newton's second law F = ma or Einstein's result in special relativity E = mc^2. Nonsense. Incompetent, intellectually bankrupt nonsense.
(2) With their physics envy, they want mathematical economics and to build mathematical models. E.g., for some decades after Dantzig's simplex algorithm, they fell in love with optimization. As optimization moved forward with nonlinear programming, the Kuhn-Tucker conditions, nonlinear duality, deterministic optimal control and the Pontryagin maximum principle, and stochastic optimal control, the mathematical economists continued to use such applied math to build their models. A shockingly large fraction of the Nobel prizes in economics are from just such nonsense. The math is rock solid; there are occasional good applications to particular, small problems, e.g., the climb, cruise, and descent of an airplane or what mix of refined products should come today from an oil refinery; an application to a real economy is nearly always just total BS.
(3) To keep their models relatively simple, they make a lot of assumptions. E.g., in finance, they assume perfect information and f'get about the guy on a motorcycle at an airport who asked the guy on the ramp where the plane was going (as in the movie Wall Street), naked shorting, etc. E.g., they make a lot of Brownian motion assumptions that then say that the LTCM disaster was wildly improbable, which it was not. They make assumptions about which workers are more productive and feed that into their optimization looking for some case of a non-inferior solution or Pareto optimality as if Chinese women had 20 fingers on each hand so could sew buttons much faster than women in South Carolina.
Going Wrong. They take their assumptions of their simplistic models and the corresponding conclusions and say that a real economy SHOULD be like that. So, they want to bend the real economy to their Procrustean bed of simplistic assumptions and conclusions. If physical science had done such a thing, then they would still be saying that the planets should move as Ptolemy said, that falling bodies should still move like Aristotle said, and that we should still be looking for flogiston.
This economic science is intellectually both incompetent and dishonest; it's contemptible, and dangerous.
Once I went through Samuelson's college text: I found NOTHING that made any sense at all except for his chapter on the Federal Reserve; in that chapter, he just described what the laws had established and was clear. All the rest of the book was total BS disconnected from any real economy. E.g., if we buy more transistors, then the price of each transistor has to go up. Right: Transistors used to cost several dollars each, and now, after buying many billions, maybe trillions, of transistors, we can buy a few hundred million for less than $100, retail. Wheat: For years 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, and 2000, take the quantity in bushels of wheat produced in the US and the price per bushel of wheat, corrected for inflation, see that the quantity has gone way up and the price, way down. Similarly for iron, steel, chickens, and pork. We're talking total suckage. The very first things in academic econ, the supply and demand curves, just do not work in any meaningful way in a real economy; real economies mostly just don't work that way, guys. Total BS.
E.g., the econonuts argue for free trade based on simplistic nonsense. Their idea is that, for some global benefit or some Pareto optimality for the world, it is better if the production is where it is most efficient. So, yes, grow teak wood in Thailand, grow rubber in Viet Nam, mine tin in Indonesia, and pump oil in Saudi Arabia. Fine. Then, sew buttons in China? Sure, if the Chinese women had 20 fingers on each hand. But they don't. And a sewing factory in China has to struggle with bad situations for each of suppliers, legal system, transportation system, communications infrastructure, information technology infrastructure, etc. Still, the econonuts want to conclude that China is more efficient at sewing buttons. No they aren't: Instead, the Chinese government understands what the econ profs don't: China takes their young women and makes each of them "an offer they can't refuse", work for pennies a hour under whatever conditions, or else, period. It's not a matter of being efficient. So, businesses, careers, lives, and communities in South Carolina are ruined. So, we pay the former textile workers to do nothing or just let them die. I know: A few of the textile workers get to serve BBQ. From such destructive nonsense, instead of textile workers, I have a better suggestion for who deserves to die. They are doing it, and we should say so: The academic econ profs are KILLING Americans.
Then there's US competitiveness: In the 1950s the US had a great economy. Except for some points of information, biomedical, and materials technology, it's not clear that our standard of living is as high now. Our imports were meager, maybe some tin from Indonesia, etc. We didn't buy much from outside because the other industrialized economies were devastated and, thus, had little to sell us. But we did sell some products: Telephone systems, construction machinery, airplanes, etc. Then the idea is that since we could sell at what were astoundingly high prices, especially for the buyers, that is why our economy was doing well: NONSENSE. Total 100% nonsense: So, Joe went to work at, say, Caterpillar, and made great machines which we shipped to, say, France. France paid us in silly paper which we converted to gold. So, we accumulated a lot of gold. What good did this do Joe or the US? Next to none: In particular, Joe's labor got consumed in France instead of the US. Econonuts are confused. It is easy to see why, say, Japan, Saudi Arabia, or Jamaica needs foreign trade. But the US was doing just fine, thank you, as essentially a self-sufficient economy in the 1950s and, with foreign trade, is doing worse now. We are shipping our going businesses, market position, education, technology secret sauce, and intellectual property overseas, and the econonuts conclude that this is good. Total BS.
Now, sure, we want to import some oil: Saudi Arabia has oil and needs national defense, wheat, construction expertise, water and sewer systems, information technology, cars, etc., so we can swap. Fine.
So, why did we give away major parts of the US economy? Sure: Some econonuts had excuses for why this was optimal, and the Foggy Bottom types wanted to save the world by exporting the US economy. Meanwhile, back in the US, the citizens got it in the rear. US citizens were killed, and are still dying.
So, several large US industries got shipped to Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, and China, and whole states in the US had their economies devastated. There is a loss the econonuts don't count: The human capital that gets written off. Or, the econonuts assume that the textile workers and metal bending manufacturing workers can, of course, just move to Redmond and write software for Microsoft, which has so far likely never happened even once, to sell to China, which, of course, steals software and doesn't buy it.
The econ profs conveniently f'get about market manipulations we learned about in the US in the 1890s -- predatory marketing practices, etc. And they f'get about the assets of a going business, technology secret sauce, market position, etc. The simplistic econ models just don't count such things, so the econonuts assume that we shouldn't think about such things in the real economy and, thus, just give them away.
In school, I knew the applied math MUCH better than the econ profs, and their nonsense and its intellectual dishonesty were infuriating. After the first lecture, I asked the econ prof, nicely, what he was assuming -- continuity, differentiability, continuous differentiability, convexity, pseudo convexity, quasi convexity, or what. Then within an hour he had called my Ph.D. advisor and got me OUT of his class. That was not my intention but was GOOD.
Academic economics has NOTHING important to do with any real economy and is from irrelevant, incompetent, dishonest, and contemptible down to seriously dangerous.
We're talking ordinary crooks way down to the lawyers way, way down to bucket shop operators and from there way, way, way down to the politicians and from there, far, far down where just can't see at all, the econ profs. I know what we should export next: If all the econ profs were lined up on a cargo ship, it would be a good thing. And still better if the ship sank far out at sea.
The real economy is IMPORTANT, way, WAY too important ever to be touched by anything like econ profs.
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#54The fair market price for young and unskilled workers would be lower than the minimum wage, yes. Is this a good thing? For young workers, if young is less than 18 (ie, still in school), then this is OK. But, for unskilled workers? That entire class would be in poverty, as if they aren't on the edge of it now.
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#55Here's one broad way Mankiw and company are going wrong. I start with three preliminary points and then point to the going wrong: (1) They have physics envy . In particular, they want to sit in a small, dark, closed room and with just pure thought , with little to no contact with any real economy, come up with some economics version of Newton's second law F = ma or Einstein's result in special relativity E = mc^2. No…
Among your many colorful examples, I'm going to call out your transistor and grain market examples, because they seem to be a misrepresentation of supply and demand. S&D doesn't say that "if we buy more transistors the price will go up", that's a misrepresentation of the theory. The whole point of S&D is that there is a relationship between the two and you can only predict price shifts (and quantities purchased) by seeing how both behave, not just one, and certainly not by just looking at quantity purchased. So demand for transistors has picked up over the decades, but the supply side has responded at an even greater magnitude, owing to improved technologies bringing the cost of supplying transistors down. This is the reason price has shifted down while quantities have risen. If anything is pretty unassailable in micro, it's S&D in a fair market with commodified goods. The numbers there actually match reality fairly well, once you have data on the shape of each curve (ah, econometrics). And it is totally legit for either curve to evolve over time; that's part of how you assess how people will react to taxes, supply shocks, etc. I would fix your examples for this point, the others seemed more legit.
Silly ASCII diagram for the transistor market:
P P
|\ /S -->+4 | \ S
| \ / | \ /
| X ==time=> | \ /
| / \ | X
|/ \D -->+2 | / \D
---------Q ---------Q
++demand, ++++supply
=> quantity purchased increases
=> price goes down
As for how economics treats technology, one of the more interesting conclusions of Mankiw's macro syllabus is that in the long run, only greater efficiency can increase the rate of growth of GDP. Simply increasing the growth of labor supply, growth of money supply, or capital investments, or decreasing rate of aggregate consumption has no long-term effect. Efficiency is essentially output per worker, so things like education and research are apparently the best effectors for accelerating GDP (and therefore the most important to preserve long-term). I can't argue with the sensibility of that result ;-)Re: Things Economists Agree On
#56I find it rather strange that even predictions that should be fairly clear-cut and straightforward (e.g. "A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available.") only get around 9/10 agreement. As a non-economist, I would have thought that a seemingly simple (and testable!) question like that would be like polling physicsts with the question "Does F = ma?". And I would sure hope that more than 93%…
Assumptions, assumptions! They plague everybody, not only economists. F = ma only in the non-relativistic limit with a constant mass.
Before you say "of course we are thinking in the non-relativistic limit", be mindful most of the rest of the universe, moving around at sizable fractions of c compared to us, disagrees with you.
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#57Interesting that all economists seem to be pro-business, anti-tax, anti-worker rights. You would almost think that most economists worked at banks or for university business schools. In other research naval officers believe in a larger navy with lots of ships
Yep, many economists do work for those institutions. And yep, all of them have /some/ particular axe to grind (everyone does -- I do, you do, etc). That doesn't mean that what they're saying isn't correct. - Businesses are, in fact, what generates most of the wealth and innovation in a country - Taxes, whether personal or corporate, are not economically efficient. Government can be compared to an electrical grid -- t…
wealth and innovation are not the only things worth optimizing , nor are they the most important.
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#58I'm curious about the "Eliminate Agriculture Subsidies" one. I don't know enough to give a good opinion, but it seems to me like that could wind up pricing basic, quality food out of the hands of the poorest people, and they'd either have problems with starvation or be forced to eat junk. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I could have sworn it was The Man that is keeping eggs down at around $3/dozen and milk around $4/gal…
Agricultural subsidies are one of the weird parts of countries economic policies. Simply put, nearly every single developed country has them. And nearly every country agrees that 'in the long run we should probably get rid of them', but then also agrees 'realistically, nothing will budge, so we'll ignore it as much as we can at every WTO (previously GATT) meeting' And the reason why they continue to exist, and will p…
Sigh. Here in Sweden we had finally managed to totally do away will all subsidies in the early 90's. Then we entered EU and got more subsidies than ever. :(
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#59I am not an economist, but I think economists have been doing a lot of catch up lately. Traditional economists have tended to see people as rational agents, whereas more recent behavioral economists are showing how people are pretty universally irrational. Sure, in an idealized economic simulation we would consider every possibility and only choose the most optimal one. It only stands to reason in such an environment…
I suspect economists might phrase it more guardedly, along the lines of "people don't always behave in a totally-rational manner."
Re: Things Economists Agree On
#60Here's one broad way Mankiw and company are going wrong. I start with three preliminary points and then point to the going wrong: (1) They have physics envy . In particular, they want to sit in a small, dark, closed room and with just pure thought , with little to no contact with any real economy, come up with some economics version of Newton's second law F = ma or Einstein's result in special relativity E = mc^2. No…