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Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

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Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#141
post #114

Two points: * We have no idea of how to measure intelligence, and we have no way of deciding whether thing X is more or less intelligent than thing Y. (The article makes this point.) Therefore, superintelligence is perhaps a bogus concept. I know it seems implausible, but perhaps there can never be something significantly more intelligent than us. * Nevertheless, mere human-like intelligence, if made faster, smaller…

> I know it seems implausible, but perhaps there can never be something significantly more intelligent than us.

The human brain is easily overwhelmed by complexity. You can present a problem with sufficiently many interacting parts even to a very intelligent person and at some point they are completely stunned. Obviously it's difficult to judge this from a position in which you suffer from the same problem, but objectively this situation is similar to a problem one would present to an animal to test its intelligence. We can easily "see through" the complexity, but the animal just cannot even combine two or three interacting parts to find a solution to the problem.

Although we have no real objective measurement for intelligence, this does not mean that there is no way to rank the intelligence of objects that are sufficiently far apart in terms of dealing with complexity. A human is clearly smarter than a dog.

People have developed tools that allow us to deal with this complexity, but we are still severly limited in dealing with very complex problems simply because our brains haven't evolved to deal with complexity.

Theoretically there is absolutely no reason to think that a computer or another organism that is capable of much more raw processing power and uses it in a way that is similar to how we process information, could not exist. I find it sort of arrogant to claim that we are the pinaccle of intelligence when we are so clearly limited in an ability that we understand to be one of the core components of intelligence.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#142

Maybe it is our destiny to create an entity that is better than we are. If humans die off or are pushed aside as a result, will that be so bad? Artificial superintelligence is only a dystopia from our current perspective.

This sounds like an extreme form of moral relativism. If we die out, there can't be an "our" perspective anymore that could make this fact a utopia, or even okayish.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#143
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, if you are talking about something truly human-like rather than what people usually mean when they say AI these days, I think there are other limits. We're running up against limits on feature-size in our integrated circuits. If you invent an AGI that can make smarter copies of itself... it's pretty likely those same physical limits will continue to apply, meaning that each iteration will be better than the last,…

What you say is true for silicon, but Turing complete molecular machinery is already out there, we just have yet to master its intricacies. The nightmare AGI scenario likely involves molecular computing using a chemically optimal code-base and engineered lifeforms a version or two up from current DNA microcode. This is most likely to be created by a human-AI collaboration, which will be innocuous enough in itself....…

That's more worrying than silicon AGI, which I think is a non-starter.

The basic problem with AGI is that software is ridiculously brittle and ad hoc, with no useful heuristics for general - as opposed to task-oriented - self improvement.

We can't even make bug-free web pages. So the idea that we can engineer a bug-free self-improving AGI is unconvincing.

Moving to neo-biology doesn't necessarily change that - but it does mean we could end up with buggy systems that chase you around and eat you, as opposed to crashing your ad blocker.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#144

> The penultimate premise is if we create an artificial intelligence, whether it's an emulated human brain or a de novo piece of software, it will operate at time scales that are characteristic of electronic hardware (microseconds) rather than human brains (hours). I never understood that argument, why would that be true? If I train a state of the art convnet it takes days on the most efficient hardware I can efford,…

The argument as I understand it is more about speed limits. Human thought is limited to the speed at which the underlying chemical reactions in neurons can happen. But a simulation of a neuron is only limited by the speed of the computation involved. If you can perfectly model a neuron at 100x the speed of the physical world, it becomes just a question of resources whether you can think at 100x the speed.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#145
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Complex Motivations. Maybe, but if not we are screwed. And this is the key: we need to get lucky every time. If we're wrong even once and a 'bad AI' gets created and obtains the ability to copy and modify itself, we've unleashed the most dangerous virus ever and putting it back in the box will be near impossible.

Not really. ML systems are not created in isolation by a single team; they form an ecosystem with many players. I'm sure the current crop of cybercriminals would like an army of bots which manipulates people into giving away all their money, and are, in fact pursuing this goal. Likewise, I'm sure there are teams of security researchers already using ML to counteract such systems. Both sides will evolve together as an…

You're assuming we can keep control of the countermeasures.

That "arms race" is part of the danger.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#146
post #60
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Complex Motivations. Maybe, but if not we are screwed. And this is the key: we need to get lucky every time. If we're wrong even once and a 'bad AI' gets created and obtains the ability to copy and modify itself, we've unleashed the most dangerous virus ever and putting it back in the box will be near impossible.

you are pretty optimistic about your AI's ability to deal with novel situations.

I've seen humans deal with novel situations. The only assumption needed is that humans and AI are subject to the same laws of nature (that is, that there is no supernatural / outside element to human intelligence)

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#147

This idea that we’re close to some runaway superintelligence has been a theme through the history of AI. I look at AI today and I see some powerful techniques for optimization and categorization. There’s still an enormous leap we need to make before we’re making something that has the autonomous intelligence of a fly. We’re at least 20 years away from the first signs of real intelligence—the biggest problem is that w…

The Waymo self driving cars seems more intelligent than some flies I've known. At least I hope they don't keep crashing into windows unable to figure their way out.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#148
> The danger of computers becoming like humans is not as great as the danger of humans becoming like computers.

-- Konrad Zuse

What eats me is trajectory we are on as humans. Runaway actual intelligence, even if it destroys humanity, wouldn't worry me as much, I'd wish it good luck, IMO even a totally random dice roll is better than what we're aiming at. But AI is more a meme than even an honest intent. It's like saying "I really really want blueberry pie", but then when you ask what that is, they it gets real murky real quick, but that doesn't stop the hype, as if wanting something a lot makes up for not knowing what it is. But that doesn't prime a person to make blueberry pie, it primese them to get lured by what they think is the smell of blueberry pie.

Here's something to note, as the length of a discussion about "AI" grows in length, the probability of things getting explained via something they saw in a movie or read in a book or saw on TV, glossing over 99.9% of the "details" those left out, approaches 1. You may say we make this fiction because of our achievements, or may point to things that actually did come to pass (of course, compared to the stuff that didn't, even from the same authors, it's nothing). And I love using examples, too, and I sure love quotes.

But still, I think when we are this steeped in variations of the same thing over and over and over, of course we'll "consider it" at some point, and the moral or philoshopical depth is drastically reduced by already being primed. We're like people who don't see what we build with our hands, because we wear VR googles that show us movies of our childhood or some console game.

What I can see us realistically making are are "idols" with eyes that do not see, with audio output, perfect speech synthesis, that does not convey meaning, incredibly fast analysis that is not thought. From the get go, starting with the Turing test, it was more about how what something seems from the outside, than what it is to itself on the inside.

Furthermore, we might make human level AI no problem, EZ PZ, but not by making AI so smart, but my making humans dumber. We're already training ourselves to select what we consume and think from discrete pre-configured options. We notice and complain about the effects of in all sorts of smaller areas, but it's a general trend, and I think it's not so much about creating something "better" than humans, but about removing human agency.

> The frightening coincidence of the modern population explosion with the discovery of technical devices that, through automation, will make large sections of the population 'superfluous' even in terms of labor, and that, through nuclear energy, make it possible to deal with this twofold threat by the use of instruments beside which Hitler's gassing installations look like an evil child's fumbling toys, should be enough to make us tremble.

-- Hannah Arendt

Meanwhile, there's this idea that humans becoming "superfluous" means we'll all be free from "bad" work, and free for fun work and leisure. How we would get from an increasing concentration of wealth in fewer hands to some commnuist utopia? Is that some kind of integer overflow, where enough greed and power wrap over to sharing and letting others live and decide their own fate? We're connected to that (like Michael Scott is to the baby of his boss,) by delusion, the path we're on doesn't lead there.

Throw away a word here, do something that "everybody does" there, adapt to "how the world is" some, and there you go, a blank nothing that can be deprecated without guilt or resistance. The desire to control human agency is met more than halfway by our desire to shed it, to abdicate responsibility, become a piece of floatsam flowing down the river of history to the ocean of technotopia, enter the holy land of holodeck, where we can consume endlessly. We digitize, we sample, that's how we make things "manageable", and at high enough resolution we can fool ourselves, or have something "good enough to work with".

And just like children that get too much sugar too early tend to not liking fruit as much, because they're not as extremely sweet, our abstractions lure some people to prefer them over the dirty, fractal, infinite real world, or the exchange of emojis and pre-configured figures of speech over real human contact, silence that isn't awkward, thinking about what you're trying to say, or even coming up blank and that being okay... just like we go "posterized, high contrast" in all sorts of ways aready, I hve no problem supposing that we will come up with a form of alienation like that, but for thinking, I just no clue how it will look like.

We already have it with language of course, but I'm sure we can take that to the next level, maybe neural interfaces. If we can't read and transmit thoughts in their fullness and depth, then hey, just reduce our thoughts to the equivalent of grunts, that might work. Become like a computer, 0 and 1. Convince yourself that's that just what humans have been all along, remember Star Trek wisdom, don't be so proud and consider your brain more than a "meat machine", don't deny Data his quest to become human! Cue super emotional music swelling up.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#149
> If Einstein tried to get a cat in a carrier, and the cat didn't want to go, you know what would happen to Einstein. > > He would have to resort to a brute-force solution that has nothing to do with intelligence, and in that matchup the cat could do pretty well for itself.

Wouldn't it be better to simply motivate the cat to get in the carrier with a can of tuna fish?

This is a very simple form of modeling the cat's mind, using that model to predict its behavior and choosing a course of action that results in the desired outcome. We do this for other humans all day and most of us never resort to brute force. I think it is pretty fair to imagine an AGI that is both better at modeling human minds and better at evaluating possible actions and their outcomes.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People (2016)

#150
post #61
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to say "he made a Rick and Morty reference, Serious Adults don't make Rick and Morty references". That'd be dumb. I mean that he points to a robot in Rick and Morty that was sad about being programmed to pass butter, and attempts to infer from this that real robots would refuse to intelligently pursue arbitrary goals, and therefore that the orthogonality thesis is false. He's treating a thing that happen…

The serious statement he makes is that humans have complex motivations, and he thinks any superintelligence would as well--in fact it might be a defining feature of intelligence. The Rick and Morty reference was just a humorous example of what might happen, not an actual argument. The subheading was "the argument from complex motivations", not "the argument from Rick and Morty", so let's try and focus on the serious…

But the orthogonality thesis isn't just some idea that may or not be true. It follows directly from Hume's Guillotine, discovered in 1739: no amount of superintelligent reasoning about facts will allow you to derive goals.

No artificial intelligence will ever spontaneously develop morals, because the questions "what can I do" and "what should I do" are eternally separated by Hume's guillotine.

The motivations will always have to be provided by the people who make the machine, and we have been seen in the past that artificial intelligences are very good at finding loopholes in their moral code. Here are some real examples: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vRPiprOa...

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