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PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

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Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fire insurance, like earthquake and flood insurance, does not work because of the scope of damages. Insurance works by pooling risk and taking income from low risk areas to pay for high risk ones. Due to the scope of wildfires, fire insurance is untenable. The solution to this fire is absolutely to blame pg and e and its custoners (yes this includes me). This is the logical conclusion. The only thing preventing us fr…

Can you explain why wild fire insurance is not tenable? Here in Canada all home insurance include wildfire insurance. All insurers have to do is to pool risk and diversify across geography. No way only California has homes near forests? There’s also reinsurers to pool even more risk.

> All insurers have to do is to pool risk and diversify across geography.

Not all insurers are nation-wide.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#32
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

Fire insurance, like earthquake and flood insurance, does not work because of the scope of damages. Insurance works by pooling risk and taking income from low risk areas to pay for high risk ones. Due to the scope of wildfires, fire insurance is untenable. The solution to this fire is absolutely to blame pg and e and its custoners (yes this includes me). This is the logical conclusion. The only thing preventing us fr…

The insurance business model is not about distributing costs from high risk customers more evenly with low risk customers, but in distributing costs more evenly between unlucky customers and lucky ones [1]. After all, most insurance companies will access the risk of their customers and assign premiums accordingly - your insurance premium is the expected value of payouts, plus overhead, plus profit.

Wildfires can destroy large swaths of land, and they are certain to occur every year, but not at every susceptible house. My mother has lived in a house in a high fire risk area of Northern California since the early 1980s, but her particular neighborhood hasn't burnt. Neither has the houses of my father-in-law, grandma-in-law, and two brothers, which are all in similarly high risk areas of Nor-Cal. Likewise, in March, nobody would have predicted that Paradise, CA would all but be destroyed, nor would they have predicted the damage in Santa Rosa the previous March. But we could still have concluded that those areas are at risk.

An insurance company can assign a value to your property (in fact, they probably already have), can estimate the probability of loss due to forrest fire, compute the expected value of payouts, add overhead, add profit, and sell you a policy. Damages are correlated on a local level, but not on a statewide level - that there was a fire in Paradise, CA doesn't increase the odds that Quincy or Fort Bragg will experience a fire too this year.

With fire damages in the tens billions per year but maybe only millions of insured to spread around the cost, people might not like the resulting premiums, but they can choose to lower their risks (and hence insurance premiums) or roll the dice.

[1]: And in managing the large pile of money you need to have on hand in case you end up with more unlucky customers than expected.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#33
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

If California was a nation state it would rank 6th in the world https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/american-state-bigger...

The media and Hollywood create a pretty weird perception of California, the climate, geography and economy is very varied.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#34
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fire insurance, like earthquake and flood insurance, does not work because of the scope of damages. Insurance works by pooling risk and taking income from low risk areas to pay for high risk ones. Due to the scope of wildfires, fire insurance is untenable. The solution to this fire is absolutely to blame pg and e and its custoners (yes this includes me). This is the logical conclusion. The only thing preventing us fr…

> fire insurance is untenable How do the insurance companies afford to insure places like in Florida and the lower East Coast, which seem to keep getting hammered with hurricanes year after year, getting worse year after year? And... can they keep up this pace? Apparently in 2017, fires "only" cost insurance companies ~$14B, out of ~$132B paid out. The majority was caused by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. 2017 w…

Flood insurance is provided by the Fed, and heavily subsidized by the taxpayer aka you and I.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#35
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

I lived the first 22 years of my life in Northern Virginia before moving to California. Let me tell you the things I don't miss: 1) Freezing winters with snow and ice 2) Scorching summers 3) Hours-long drive to the beach 4) Lack of vegetarian food (though that's been changing in recent years!) 5) The politics (extremely politically driven people from the entire spectrum wind up in the DMV).

Of course there's plenty I miss, but just depending on what you value the DMV is not that much better than California.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#36
post #16

If someone pours gasoline over everything, but someone else lights the match, why do we put all the blame on the match lighter? Building flammable homes right next to super dry, brush filled forests is just an invitation for disaster.

why do we put all the blame on the match lighter?

Because we know how to effectively employ "scapegoating" to hide our own misdeeds.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#37
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

Kindly keep the conversation productive - I don't tell my relatives to abandon the Florida they dearly love when hurricanes strike, even though we both know they'll just strike again and again. They have their reasons for loving and rebuilding the place they call home.

Instead, I wish them the best of luck repairing their homes and send my condolences (occasionally monetary aid).

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#38
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

This is really unrelated to anything else in this thread and it could just be trolling but... Are you kidding?

Maybe you've always grown up in nicer areas than I have and don't realize how bad it can be. Sure, rent in Michigan is cheap, near Detroit - which is appealing all the way up till there's police tape in your backyard from a shooting. You pay less taxes and you feel it every morning when you drive to work, because the roads are less maintained than the flavor of the week JavaScript frameworks from 2012, which BY THE WAY you almost certainly will need to drive to work in Michigan, since the jobs tend to be far away and public transport would be great if it were supposed to be the punchline to a joke. The restaurant scene in NorCal is not the best in the world or country, but unless you want Mediterranean food it's nearly unilaterally better than anywhere I've been in Michigan. Michigan does not have the harshest winters by far, but I'd almost rather choke to death in smoke than deal with another Michigan winter, sliding around on the ice trying not to crash my car while freezing my ass off. Speaking of which, How about Michigan car insurance? It's pretty hard to put into words how godawful the car insurance situation is, but I paid more than double for worse insurance in Michigan and that's reason enough to hate it.

Wildfires are terrible. Homelessness is bad. But the rent prices, well, they're high for a reason; it's a great place to live despite all of the setbacks. And maybe there's a better set of trade-offs elsewhere in the U.S., but I get the opportunity to work with some of the best engineers I've ever met and that's pretty hard to find anywhere else.

So yes. It is a bummer when the rent comes out of my paycheck each month, it is upsetting when I hear the death tolls and see the wildfire smoke. But, I also remember where I came from and frankly I'm choosing to stay for now.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

If California was a nation state it would rank 6th in the world https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/american-state-bigger... The media and Hollywood create a pretty weird perception of California, the climate, geography and economy is very varied.

I thought the reason Hollywood was in California is because of the wide range of climates and shooting locations. Beach, farm, desert, and alpine, all just a few hours drive away. We're a bit short on tundra, though.

Re: PG&E-friendly wildfire bill being prepared by lawmakers in wake of lethal fires

#40
post #2

It seems like an odd quirk of liability law that all of the fire damage is blamed on PG+E if the initial spark that started the fire was PG+E’s fault. Surely some blame lies elsewhere as well. I think homeowners need to be paying fire insurance costs proportional to fire risk to properly incentivize fire protection (and I say this as a California homeowner in a somewhat fire prone area). In the end, PG+E is regulated…

California the land of sky high housing & rent, insane deadly forest fires, homelessness like no other state, landslides, earthquakes... it just doesn't sound very appealing. What are the positives ... chasing and potentially realizing your creative (music/film) or tech dreams there? That can be done in other cities like Nashville or possibly close to here in a few years with Amazon building in Crystal City, VA (othe…

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