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No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

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Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#341
post #45

And still, even on HN, the discussion of cryptocurrency is oscillating between totally different axioms? Some of us speak as prophetic market analysts and bring up "nails in coffins" and other crystal ball bull shit, and some of us wonder about the technology itself and understand that the price against the dollar only matters to gamblers.

Has anyone come up with a use case for blockchains yet, that isn't buying illegal drugs or money laundering? I keep seeing pie in the sky hypotheticals like "supply chain trust" from people who think farmers are etching their cucumbers with serial numbers, but I've yet to see any use case presented for a blockchain that has real utility and isn't better solved by existing processes or systems.

I'll go out on a limb and say that if we expand "buying illegal drugs" to "buying anything", or more accurately, "sending money securely, reliably over the internet in a censorship-resistant fashion" then that seems like a sufficiently interesting use case.

Even treating Bitcoin as a settlement layer, and saying that we have "an electronic bearer currency that is deterministically produced and cannot be forged" is pretty powerful as a use case.

I'm a huge skeptic on the remaining uses of "blockchain" such as it is. If we define "blockchain" as a one-sided Merkle tree, then we have things like git that qualify, that are very useful in their own right. Similarly log-based database updates are also chains of blocks that are used to represent immutable updates that can be combined into a mutable view of the present, and those are also useful in databases and filesystems. But a bitcoin-like blockchain is not novel or interesting in this regard.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#342
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also the result of the federal governments of the world, the US in particular, choking off all the fiat crypto exchanges with their expanded and draconian know your customer laws. As an anecdote, I didn't buy my monthly bitcoin purchase early this month because I've been (and still am) locked out of my ~5 year old coinbase account I use constantly because they are being required to require new forms of ID and…

I broadly agree with this. My sense is that KYC hurts individuals who value their privacy and maybe catches some mid-level crooks. The big criminals bypass it without much difficulty. The recent case of Dankse Bank confirmed my opinions about this. Here's a forbes piece: https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/09/30/the-b...

> KYC hurts individuals who value their privacy

If you care about privacy, use cash. Only your income will be reported.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#343
post #338
post #308

Having seen four of these major wipeouts over the years, here's the pattern for this highly cyclical spectacle: 1. Nobody cares about Bitcoin. If you tell anyone you bought it, they either shrug or laugh. 2. Bitcoin refuses to die. The long-predicted technology show-stoppers never happen and the network keeps chugging. A small but dedicated group of users continues using it on a regular basis. 3. Speculators who had…

You'll notice that absent from this cycle is any kind of productive use or innovation with bitcoin. Its all cyclic hype.

Bitcoin is a solution, that is still looking for a problem.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#344
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about $35 and $250?

At $250 I was explaining to my parents what bitcoin is. At $19,000 I was overhearing Starbucks baristas talk about it.

At 330 shoe-shine boys were buying into the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It went down to 42. It's at 24,581 now.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#345
post #332
post #308

Having seen four of these major wipeouts over the years, here's the pattern for this highly cyclical spectacle: 1. Nobody cares about Bitcoin. If you tell anyone you bought it, they either shrug or laugh. 2. Bitcoin refuses to die. The long-predicted technology show-stoppers never happen and the network keeps chugging. A small but dedicated group of users continues using it on a regular basis. 3. Speculators who had…

The brake on the cycle that I see coming is that eventually, surely, everyone that can take part in steps 3 and 6 has already taken part in one of the cycles and quite a lot of them got burned. Or more succinctly - surely sooner or later you have to run out of naive speculators?

250 people are born every minute. Some of them are bound to be suckers.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True ownership of scarce digital assets is something that blockchains excel at, particularly decentralized blockchains (because true ownership means no individuals have the power to control your asset) - there are still endless questions about what this means and how this plays out in practice, but it’s a real use case with a fascinating future that will live independently of the get rich quick fantasies of most bloc…

What "scarce digital assets" exist other than blockchain-backed cryptocurrencies? You've invented a problem for your solution.

> What "scarce digital assets" exist other than blockchain-backed cryptocurrencies?

Other digital collectibles predate cryptocurrency (a fact pointed to be the name of a prominent, and now famously defunct, early Bitcoin exchange.)

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#347
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technology doesn't just 'happen'. Someone has to foot the bill (sign at the bottom).

The point is that these things are free already. There is nothing to invest. Linux took the creativity and hard work of several people. Nobody involved in it actually got richer as you might imagine people did with shitcoins... People are investing into cryptocrapto like it is some fintech.

"Linux took the creativity and hard work of several people. Nobody involved in it actually got richer as you might imagine people did with shitcoins..."

Not necessarily true. Both RedHat & VA Linux gifted Linus Torvalds with stock during the dot-com boom, enough for him to become independently wealthy.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#348
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about $35 and $250?

At $250 I was explaining to my parents what bitcoin is. At $19,000 I was overhearing Starbucks baristas talk about it.

Memorably when it was at $15K+ I was on the phone with my dad (who still uses MapQuest and pronounces CD-ROM with a heavy emphasis on ROM) said "well I think it's time for me to put my money into Bitcoin."

Thankfully he was joking.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#349
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the risk of sounding overly flippant... should we (the general non-bitcoin holding public) really care whether a 51% attack happens or not?

I don't believe it would affect USA's financial system. There are certainly a number of individuals who hold BTC who would get wiped out in such an event, but it seems like it'd be relatively isolated. It looks like some countries where BTC is more popular may take a bigger hit under such a doomsday scenario. In effect, a 51% attack would cause the attacker to scam a lot of money from people in a short period of time…

> So even if a 51% attack were possible, the people who could do it would never torpedo the coins that the own.

So, BTC is popular in large part for offering the ability to evade state controls (both regulation of supply and transfer, and taxation) that fiat is effectively subject to (whether or not they theoretically also apply to BTC), and to avoid control of the banks, but it is unthinkable but that an incumbent nation state, or set of banks, or combination of one or more of the former with or without the latter, would sacrifice the resources to thoroughly discredit BTC?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#350
post #4

That's what happens when you screw over the general public in a giant pump and dump. There is just no more money left to steal. First time was for the early adopters at $1000, second time was for the late majority at $19,000. You're not going to see that happen again.

At maybe $10k on the way up, my 70ish y.o. dad (40 years as SWE) said that all the young guys in his department were talking about something called Bitcoin.

I said, dad, you better not.

He said, don't worry, I won't.

At $10k on the way down, I asked him if he did. He said he didn't, but a bunch of those young guys did.

(I don't remember the exact value. Probably actually more like 12 or even 15.)

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