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No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

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Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#281

Post by mindfulplay »

all2 wrote: post #274
mindfulplay wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is pretty silly. There is no technology to bet. Nobody bet money on Linux or Android. They just happened. These things are not money problems... They are people problems: greed, stupidity and thinking they are better than the average Joe or Jane.

Technology doesn't just 'happen'. Someone has to foot the bill (sign at the bottom).

The point is that these things are free already. There is nothing to invest.

Linux took the creativity and hard work of several people. Nobody involved in it actually got richer as you might imagine people did with shitcoins...

People are investing into cryptocrapto like it is some fintech.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#282

Post by tialaramex »

jeletonskelly wrote: post #34
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

Trading volume has dropped significantly over the last 6 months. Large holders have been patient waiting for new money to enter the market. Eventually, when the only activity is a few automated traders and the exchange liquidity provider, large holders are faced with opportunity costs of investing in something else and the limited liquidity the market can absorb as they exit. It's a domino effect as they see each oth…

Yup. Liquidity isn't something you need to care about if you trade something listed on an exchange, at reasonable volumes (neither very tiny nor enormous). If nobody else wants it the market makers will automatically take the other side of any trade at the listed buy/sell price, and keep the difference, that's their job.

But Bitcoin, BBS stocks, weird instruments that aren't listed anywhere, those you can only sell if you can find a buyer, if there is no buyer (or no buyer at the volume you care about) then the "price" doesn't mean anything at all.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#283

Post by natmaka »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #194
xiphias2 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With BTC this is just normal volatility. The usual drawdowns that are happening every 1-3 years are about 75% - 95%. If the price of BTC goes under $1000 that will be something new. I can't speak of other coins as they are a very different market (and I'm a Bitcoin maximalist).

By "Bitcoin maximalist" I assume you mean you want to see it enter widespread use as currency? Any thoughts on the extreme environmental downside of BTC?

Existing (non crypto/legal tender) also has environmental downsides. Is there a serious study comparing the environmental downside of currencies (crypto and not crypto)?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#284

Post by tim333 »

simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

Speculating here but if you look at the price graph this year it looks like someone was trying to prop it up and keep it above $6000. Maybe tether/bitfinex or the Chinese miners, dunno. But anyway this would require $17m or more coming in to the market each week to cover the mining rewards. Maybe that dried up and the buyers ran out of money, then once it broke people tried to sell out before it got worse?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#285

Post by brazzy »

quickben wrote: post #92
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

> could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop It has to decline, I was giving it 2-5 yeas, but it seems it dropped much faster: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15760415 As for the faster than usual now, my guess is few things. Main contribution is NVidia that had their earnings report, they told the planet flat out gpus aren't selling as well, so the gig that everybody is increasingly mining was…

> Main contribution is NVidia that had their earnings report, they told the planet flat out gpus aren't selling as well, so the gig that everybody is increasingly mining was called up.

So... you know absolutely nothing about Bitcoin, do you?

There is zero connection between Bitcoin and GPUs, except maybe indirectly via other cryptocurrencies, but then those would show the effect stronger.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#287

Post by dplavery92 »

airstrike wrote: post #193
softawre wrote: post #178

Just curious, do you guys throw a bit of your retirement portfolio into BTC just to diversify? I do, I keep maybe 3% of mine in BTC just in case.

Just curious, do you guys throw a bit of your retirement portfolio into roulettes at the casino just to diversify? I do, I gamble away maybe 3% of mine just in case.

I get the gag here, but it's not a very apt comparison. The expected return from a roulette spin is really well understood: a loss of about 5% of your bet, albeit with high variance. The future of these investments is less understood. Again the variance is high, but its performance over time is also really good. Perhaps you have plenty of reasons to doubt the future performance of BTC, but it's not like it's a known bad bet.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#288

Post by jonknee »

criddell wrote: post #245
emerongi wrote: post #23

Bitcoin still has a $77B market cap. This is bigger than many well-known and long-living companies. Let's be real - Bitcoin still has a long way to drop.

> Bitcoin still has a long way to drop. Is there a way to short Bitcoin?

The safest way is probably to sell futures on CBOE or CME (those are the exchanges, but you'd do the transactions through your broker). I say safest because you don't have to worry about counterparty risk from a sketchy offshore Bitcoin exchange. The futures are cash settled based on the price of bitcoin, much like SPX or similar equity indexes.

Obviously there's a ton of risk involved, there's no reason it can't double for a dumb reason and you get caught owing a fortune.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#289

Post by mikestew »

simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop

One could probably write pages on the topic, but here's my one sentence summary: reality didn't match the hype, and markets are coming to that realization. Corollary: hype-driven price goes up much more slowly than reality-driven drops.

Simplistic though it might be, it's the reason for most big drops in equities markets. That biotech that might be on to a cure for prostate cancer? Up and up she goes...until the FDA trial says it doesn't work. New battery tech company says they'll have batteries that can drive you SF->NY and a full charge takes 30 seconds! Buy, buy! Oh, BTW, the batteries will cost $10K/kWh. New way of paying for things that will eliminate cash, and all the geeky kids are into it? Those nerds know what they're doing, right? 'cuz I sure don't, and I don't want to miss out! Oh, all I can buy are illegal drugs of unknown quality, and I can lose all of my money if I forget my password or make one tiny mistake and the hackers get it? I bought in at $19.5K, why isn't it still going up? Be glad it's only down to $4500.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#290

Post by agumonkey »

strasse86 wrote: post #50
overcast wrote: post #4

That's what happens when you screw over the general public in a giant pump and dump. There is just no more money left to steal. First time was for the early adopters at $1000, second time was for the late majority at $19,000. You're not going to see that happen again.

"You're not going to see that happen again." I've heard that during the last 4 bear markets. Give it some years it always comes back stronger to absorb fresh money

I know the feeling, but at one point you gotta stop repeating the same thing forever. Bitcoin is not a new thing that will repeat 1000% growth.
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