No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250 • Hacker News Board

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#91

Post by alanfalcon » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:39 PM UTC

na85 wrote: post #45

LMYahooTFY wrote: post #31

And still, even on HN, the discussion of cryptocurrency is oscillating between totally different axioms? Some of us speak as prophetic market analysts and bring up "nails in coffins" and other crystal ball bull shit, and some of us wonder about the technology itself and understand that the price against the dollar only matters to gamblers.

Has anyone come up with a use case for blockchains yet, that isn't buying illegal drugs or money laundering? I keep seeing pie in the sky hypotheticals like "supply chain trust" from people who think farmers are etching their cucumbers with serial numbers, but I've yet to see any use case presented for a blockchain that has real utility and isn't better solved by existing processes or systems.

True ownership of scarce digital assets is something that blockchains excel at, particularly decentralized blockchains (because true ownership means no individuals have the power to control your asset) - there are still endless questions about what this means and how this plays out in practice, but it’s a real use case with a fascinating future that will live independently of the get rich quick fantasies of most blockchain proponents.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#92

Post by quickben » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

> could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop

It has to decline, I was giving it 2-5 yeas, but it seems it dropped much faster: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15760415

As for the faster than usual now, my guess is few things. Main contribution is NVidia that had their earnings report, they told the planet flat out gpus aren't selling as well, so the gig that everybody is increasingly mining was called up. Normal people check out, traders can't trade if they can't short it and it's starts going downhill. So anybody that's in the business of not losing money stops the bots. But nvidia the most visible thing that creates sentiment among the crypto-evangelist population it seems.

The other reasons wound be, end of a 40 year bull run across western democracies, end of the minor cycle economy run, add to that a trade war, QT, people overexposed on the houses with HELOCs and stuff from that QT, and everybody will be pulling cash from everywhere since cash will matter fairly soon.

The rest is standard, stock market drop by 20% or much more, asset bubble deflation, etc etc. It's all fairly cyclical.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#93

Post by Hermel » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

scient wrote: post #74

superkuh wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also the result of the federal governments of the world, the US in particular, choking off all the fiat crypto exchanges with their expanded and draconian know your customer laws. As an anecdote, I didn't buy my monthly bitcoin purchase early this month because I've been (and still am) locked out of my ~5 year old coinbase account I use constantly because they are being required to require new forms of ID and…

Yeah, KYC/AML is totally bad because of trying to actually prevent money being funnelled into crime organization etc. This is why I cant stand ignorant crypto-fans.

Even according to the IRS's own estimates, laws like Fatca would never pass a cost/benefit test. The implementation costs of such bureaucratic monstrosities is in the range of hundreds of billions, whereas the benefit is a few orders of magnitude lower. The established banks do not complain much about it because the high fixed cost of compliance disproportionally affects small firms, thereby protecting them from being disrupted by innovative startups.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#94

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

tboyd47 wrote: post #69

simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

Occam's Razor - could just be a symptom of the current stock market crash.

Barring time travel, I'm not sure how a stock market correction starting in September 2018 can cause a Bitcoin crash starting in December 2017.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#95

Post by all2 » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

mrleinad wrote: post #71

booleandilemma wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $250 I was explaining to my parents what bitcoin is. At $19,000 I was overhearing Starbucks baristas talk about it.

When the cleaning lady asks if she should buy bitcoin, is when you should dump and sell everything.

"When the street gets in, its time to get out."

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#96

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:41 PM UTC

superkuh wrote: post #66

jeletonskelly wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trading volume has dropped significantly over the last 6 months. Large holders have been patient waiting for new money to enter the market. Eventually, when the only activity is a few automated traders and the exchange liquidity provider, large holders are faced with opportunity costs of investing in something else and the limited liquidity the market can absorb as they exit. It's a domino effect as they see each oth…

This is also the result of the federal governments of the world, the US in particular, choking off all the fiat crypto exchanges with their expanded and draconian know your customer laws. As an anecdote, I didn't buy my monthly bitcoin purchase early this month because I've been (and still am) locked out of my ~5 year old coinbase account I use constantly because they are being required to require new forms of ID and…

[deleted]

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#97

Post by 5trokerac3 » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:41 PM UTC

tgb29 wrote: post #83

Investing in crypto currencies because you believe in blockchain technology doesn’t make sense. Any good use case I’ve thought of doesn’t require public chain. So why invest in a specific crypto? How is Bitcoin fundamentally more valuable than Ethereum? How are either fundamentally more valuable than EOS? As a currency or store or value, each have essentially the same properties. Leaks in the ecosystem, like scam ICO…

Shhh! You'll spook the suckers... I mean new investors, with that talk.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#98

Post by ahartmetz » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:41 PM UTC

tgb29 wrote: post #83

Investing in crypto currencies because you believe in blockchain technology doesn’t make sense. Any good use case I’ve thought of doesn’t require public chain. So why invest in a specific crypto? How is Bitcoin fundamentally more valuable than Ethereum? How are either fundamentally more valuable than EOS? As a currency or store or value, each have essentially the same properties. Leaks in the ecosystem, like scam ICO…

Ctrl-F gold... This movement may answer the question whether Bitcoin will react to a bear market like gold or like oil. There are good arguments for both and no past behavior to analyze because Bitcoin appeared after the 2008 crash.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#99

Post by kamaal » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:43 PM UTC

Only a few months back, I happened to talk to a person associated bitcoin trading. You instantly get that feeling of talking to a person deep in a pyramid scheme.

He talked endlessly about how he plans to buy a luxury villa with all fancy facilities worth crores, and an expensive car, and it would all happen, and he would defy the world and rub it in their face. All with bitcoin money. He continued to justify his actions, decisions with unimaginable zeal. The closest I've seen this kind of conviction is among high religious people. It almost felt the same way.

The general feeling among this crowd is their heaven is only steps away, and will come to pass sooner. Other people will left watching, and will come to be envy of their success. And he can do all that by just investing in some coins and watch it become very big.

I was tempted to debate, but given how deep he was in fantasy, I thought it best that he be left alone, at least the guy can have fun in his thoughts while he can.

But the larger problem is with people, so many people want to do so much with one life. Many people go into wrong academic tracks, end up being accountants, or real estate brokers or whatever. And they see no bailing or escape from low paying jobs, and living working through a mediocre career, under achieving all the way. Its easy to lure such people into any thing that mildly looks to pay disproportionately with little effort. What follows next is religious conviction in such pursuits, even if they can proved totally irrational. People do like to believe miracles can happen in the face of every day mediocrity. And when ponzi schemes come along, they helpless fall for them.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#100

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:43 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #78

emerongi wrote: post #23

Bitcoin still has a $77B market cap. This is bigger than many well-known and long-living companies. Let's be real - Bitcoin still has a long way to drop.

Market cap is a silly way to look at crypto. A well-known and long-living company that went from $19k/share to $4k/share would be rightly deemed to be struggling, and folks would have concerns about its long-term potential.

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