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The American Dream Is Alive in China

nytimes.com

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Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#21

Post by sdinsn »

Jyaif wrote: post #19
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #7

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments. However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights,…

FYI, China is investing in the long run (20 years+). A couple of points that leads me to think China will dominate the world in the next decades (if it has not started already): * With the Belt and Road initiative China is building deep relationships with half of the countries of the world. * Their industry is not slowed down by regulation, so they iterate and learn quickly. For example, some people think they'll be…

Keep in mind that institutional investors don't invest much "in the long run".

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#22

Post by csense »

This isn't a surprise. Back in the day, a kid fresh out of high school in the US could get a job that supported a house with a yard, a car, children, and a non-working spouse.

Factories were both directly paying good wages for non-high-skill positions and fueling a myriad of local businesses where those workers spent their money. Then globalization happened, and those factories went to China. Entire local and regional economies collapsed and a lot of them STILL haven't recovered.

Great opportunity for Chinese people, not so good for American people.

You might think from this that I hate the Chinese, or the poor, or something. That's not true. I just think we need to find a way for regular Chinese people to have hope and opportunity, that doesn't involve taking hope and opportunity away from regular American people.

Billionaire Ray Dalio said in a recent interview that 8 of 12 times there's been a rising power situation like the current one with China, it's turned into a shooting war.

My own opinion: If people's hope and opportunity are taken away, they start to get into the mood for a shooting war with the people they think took it. Bringing hope and opportunity back to regular Americans could prevent World War 3.

How do we do it?

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#23

Post by T-A »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #7

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments. However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights,…

Exports are about 20% of China's GDP [1], and 18% of those exports go to the US [2]. So even you completely erased all of China's exports to the US, without substitution, you would only subtract 3.6% from its GDP, i.e. little more than half a year's worth of growth at the current rate of about 6.5% per year. Possibly a short recession, definitely not a crash.

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?location...

[2] https://www.thebalance.com/china-economy-facts-effect-on-us-...

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#24

Post by statguy »

dikei wrote: post #18
statguy wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least those relationships don't involve carpet bombing rich and thriving places back in to the stone age.

Not yet. As the last country to go to war with China, we know full well that they won't hesitate bombing former allies should the circumstance calls for it.

Let's reserve judgement until China actually orchestrates a Fallujah scale bombing.

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#25

Post by joefranklinsrs »

T-A wrote: post #23
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #7

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments. However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights,…

Exports are about 20% of China's GDP [1], and 18% of those exports go to the US [2]. So even you completely erased all of China's exports to the US, without substitution, you would only subtract 3.6% from its GDP, i.e. little more than half a year's worth of growth at the current rate of about 6.5% per year. Possibly a short recession, definitely not a crash. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?lo…

You forgot about the millions of jobs that disappear in China after factories leave for other countries.

You forgot about the billions of foreign direct investment that actually helped China to get to where it is today, now leaving the country.

You forgot about the real estate bubble in China deflating. The one that has the middle class of China paying for $1M house with their $1300/month income.

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#26

Post by joefranklinsrs »

Jyaif wrote: post #19
joefranklinsrs wrote: post #7

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments. However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights,…

FYI, China is investing in the long run (20 years+). A couple of points that leads me to think China will dominate the world in the next decades (if it has not started already): * With the Belt and Road initiative China is building deep relationships with half of the countries of the world. * Their industry is not slowed down by regulation, so they iterate and learn quickly. For example, some people think they'll be…

Belt and Road: Malaysian government stopped a $20B project. Maldives just called it one-sided. India refuses to have anything to do with it. So do most of the EU members. Media around the world is calling it debt trap

Regulation: deadly vaccines. deadly milk powder. Their citizens then choose to buy foreign goods only

hard work: they are at their job 60 hours a week. but only working 20.

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#27

Post by flukus »

g9yuayon wrote: post #14

One thing important that many people ignored about China is its K-12 education system. It is much better than the US in a number of ways, especially for the ordinary students, which accounts for the majority of the student body, myself included. - For starters, teachers in China are responsible. They care about the subjects they teach, and spend countless hours finding challenging problems for students as well as gra…

Correct me if I'm wrong and/or out of date, but isn't rote learning still the heart and sole of their education system? That's great if you want to churn out factory workers but it's not going to cut it if you want to lead in technology and innovation.

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#29

Post by groceryheist »

g9yuayon wrote: post #14

One thing important that many people ignored about China is its K-12 education system. It is much better than the US in a number of ways, especially for the ordinary students, which accounts for the majority of the student body, myself included. - For starters, teachers in China are responsible. They care about the subjects they teach, and spend countless hours finding challenging problems for students as well as gra…

Thanks for this effortful comment! I really appreciated your point about how the US system is good for those who push themselves. It makes me curious to consider the myth that the US system produces "creative" individuals in a way that China supposedly fails to do.

I agree that the US's academic and intellectual culture is good for the intrinsically motivated, but, speaking as a graduate student who teaches classes at a top public US university, most undergraduates arrive thoroughly institutionalized and are primarily motivated by their grades. I believe in project-based learning that gives students an opportunity to apply their skills and knowledge to problems they are personally interested in, but it is difficult to do this effectively when students have been trained to be motivated by their grades. I am not trying to focus here on criticizing the grade-based system (with which I have many qualms), but the broader culture that we see in early education. I think your point about teachers offering concrete feedback to students in terms of study skills and dedication is important. Much of the US middle class seems to expect success without feeling that they have to earn it, even as they expect others with less privilege to work harder. The US is experiencing the downside of an individualistic culture: those in secure socio-economic positions do not feel the need to work hard in order to help provide to the collective good.

Re: The American Dream Is Alive in China

#30

Post by gammateam »

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #7

These flurry of NYTimes favorable articles on China, the last few days, is....fascinating. It's almost like those with vested interests knew a huge crash is about to come to China in 2019, and is trying to unload some investments. However, the ever connected world is not blind, and can see the dramatic fall China has suffered in the last 2 years in terms of stock market, yuan weakness, capital outflow, human rights,…

That is probably a valid perspective

Regardless, There are lots of opportunities to consolidate capital and run your venture SUPER quickly in China.

Also as we are comparing China and US, there are plenty of counterpoints that you would probably trivialize as a whataboutism.

So instead of that, honestly you should look at US prohibitions as an instruction manual for what you CAN do in China. Nuanced financial stuff you wouldn't have thought of on your own, just written in plain text and available to do in any growing economy

Many billionaires are minted there because even things like stock market listing standards are much more liberal. The main country's index being comprised of companies where only 1% of the float is trading, with the other 99% being owned by 1 person. They liquidate, you know. You wouldn't see this on the Nasdaq or S&P.

There are plenty of ways to make money from nothing over there, and the barriers of entry are almost impossible in the United States for a working class person with working class friends as you'll never be able to pull off a proper Regulation D offering because nobody can invest in it. You'll never have capital to cover all the bases and scale. You have to spend too much of your life to pull of your one shot, and that has a high failure rate so its back to wage work for you. Whereas the serial entrepreneurs already have a different form of stability and take many shots. Its like playing a game the first time ever and only having 1 life, versus the person that has infinite lives. China doesn't offer any of this in an extremely egalitarian way, but there are multiple extremely high growth regions and service providers that are willing to play ball such that the opportunities are just available.

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