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The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

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Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#51

Post by gammateam »

bradleyjg wrote: post #11

For the nation as a whole it's a bad deal, in a prisoner's dilemma if everyone cooperates the payoff matrix is globally optimal. But for New York City it's a good deal, and those claiming otherwise refuse to look at the math and instead want to go with how the deal makes them feel. $150,000 x 25,000 = $3.75B/year. At NYS + NYC effective tax rate of around 9.25% at that income level that's around 350MM in income tax a…

I posted similar math on reddit several days ago too, and didn't receive a response when I asked to counterpoints to that specifically

Most people's counterpoints are about what ifs related to corporate and human welfare, and will go on a tangent about that, emboldened by headlines about the dollar amount each new york tax payer would have contributed to the subsidy.

Taxpayers got a good deal.

Their corporate and human welfare argument will hold true whether there were subsidies or not, at any arbitrary salary figure, at any arbitrary number of jobs. So it is a total red herring to this deal, which is profitable whether 24,999 people get minimum wage and 1 person gets $100,000,000 annually, as long as they are taxed by New York in some capacity. (income, sales tax, property tax via direct ownership or rent paid to someone else that pays income and property tax)

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#52

Post by oculusthrift »

gammateam wrote: post #50
oculusthrift wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> those claiming otherwise refuse to look at the math and instead want to go with how the deal makes them feel. its more than a little immature to accuse this of those who disagree with you. your model relies on the fact that this would all be additional tax revenue that wasn't collected earlier. While a lot of these jobs can be people who already work in NY and simply switch jobs. In addition, it neglects the cost…

thats true whether there are subsidies or not. these are higher paying jobs than current averages no matter how the average is done, using less space than average, and the subsidies pay for themselves. so............... thats why the model can exist in a vacuum

right but how do you factor in longer commutes for existing residents? or current residents having to move or have their children go to different schools? What is your dollar value on that? and before you say that isn't relevant, thats the exact mindset that brought us trump. valuing the dollar value over quality of life of existing people. it also outsources alot of the quality of life to visa holders instead of residents.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#53

Post by rockarage »

bradleyjg wrote: post #11

For the nation as a whole it's a bad deal, in a prisoner's dilemma if everyone cooperates the payoff matrix is globally optimal. But for New York City it's a good deal, and those claiming otherwise refuse to look at the math and instead want to go with how the deal makes them feel. $150,000 x 25,000 = $3.75B/year. At NYS + NYC effective tax rate of around 9.25% at that income level that's around 350MM in income tax a…

Do you expect more automation in the workplace from Amazon or less? Cause the numbers only work if the jobs are created, however Amazon has about a decade as a cushion. A few years from now, Amazon could conclude that it may not be worthwhile to create all the 25,000 jobs and the better option is to return the government's money in year 10, this will be a loss for the city.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#54

Post by gammateam »

oculusthrift wrote: post #52
gammateam wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats true whether there are subsidies or not. these are higher paying jobs than current averages no matter how the average is done, using less space than average, and the subsidies pay for themselves. so............... thats why the model can exist in a vacuum

right but how do you factor in longer commutes for existing residents? or current residents having to move or have their children go to different schools? What is your dollar value on that? and before you say that isn't relevant, thats the exact mindset that brought us trump. valuing the dollar value over quality of life of existing people. it also outsources alot of the quality of life to visa holders instead of res…

and you think ANY of that is a relevant argument for Long Island City's 3-year residents? LIC is the perfect place to build this. A lot less contrived than when Google bought a block of lower Manhattan for $1 billion back in 2011.

> and before you say that isn't relevant, thats the exact mindset that brought us trump.

is this post copypasta?

I feel like you would recycle this post as a counterpoint for any form of upward mobility in an area.

The model exists in a vacuum because the subsidies make a profit and create minimal overhead.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#55

Post by TheCoelacanth »

rockarage wrote: post #53
bradleyjg wrote: post #11

For the nation as a whole it's a bad deal, in a prisoner's dilemma if everyone cooperates the payoff matrix is globally optimal. But for New York City it's a good deal, and those claiming otherwise refuse to look at the math and instead want to go with how the deal makes them feel. $150,000 x 25,000 = $3.75B/year. At NYS + NYC effective tax rate of around 9.25% at that income level that's around 350MM in income tax a…

Do you expect more automation in the workplace from Amazon or less? Cause the numbers only work if the jobs are created, however Amazon has about a decade as a cushion. A few years from now, Amazon could conclude that it may not be worthwhile to create all the 25,000 jobs and the better option is to return the government's money in year 10, this will be a loss for the city.

This is not an upfront payment. Amazon gets the money once they have actually created the jobs.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#56

Post by egypturnash »

jhall1468 wrote: post #43
throwaway2048 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can hate the players that rig the game, thanks.

And in doing so you become part of the problem. Amazon never rigged the game. The game has been the same for long before Amazon existed, they are simply playing by the rules.

Personally I think it's cool to hate the players and the game. If you make the choice to play an odious game, you're still responsible for the results of you following the rules.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#57

Post by throwaway2048 »

intopieces wrote: post #36

Eh. Everyone is acting like $3B is some massive some of money. The State of New York recently sealed a budget for ~$168B and and the economy of the state itself is somewhere around $1.2T. Hell, Amazon itself has a market cap of nearly 800B. As of 2017, "[m]ore people are leaving the New York region than any other major metropolitan area in the country": https://nypost.com/2017/04/01/people-are-fleeing-new-york-at...…

The tide of people leaving because NYC is becoming completely un-afforable if you make less than 60k a year.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#58

Post by BonesJustice »

bradleyjg wrote: post #11

For the nation as a whole it's a bad deal, in a prisoner's dilemma if everyone cooperates the payoff matrix is globally optimal. But for New York City it's a good deal, and those claiming otherwise refuse to look at the math and instead want to go with how the deal makes them feel. $150,000 x 25,000 = $3.75B/year. At NYS + NYC effective tax rate of around 9.25% at that income level that's around 350MM in income tax a…

What is with all these posts that just assume that 25,000 new humans are going to be plopped down in NYC?

Has Amazon come out and said that they’re going to be relocating 25,000 employees here? If not, then I suspect a solid majority of those hired will already be living and working in the greater NYC area. In those instances, any gain in income tax revenue will be meager.

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#59

Post by CharlesW »

bilbo0s wrote: post #31
booleandilemma wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet I just heard that the MTA is raising prices again this year. How many Fortune 100 companies need to move here before we get a working subway system?

To be fair, you do have a working subway system. If you didn't, no one would care that they raised prices. You guys have the best subway system in the US if we're being honest here. That's part of the reason why you get things like Amazon's HQ2 instead of anyone else.

> You guys have the best subway system in the US if we're being honest here.

The biggest (in the US), certainly. "Best" depends on your perspective. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/18/nyregion/chicago-l-train-...

Re: The New York Hustle of Amazon’s Second Headquarters

#60

Post by jhall1468 »

egypturnash wrote: post #56
jhall1468 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in doing so you become part of the problem. Amazon never rigged the game. The game has been the same for long before Amazon existed, they are simply playing by the rules.

Personally I think it's cool to hate the players and the game. If you make the choice to play an odious game, you're still responsible for the results of you following the rules.

Yeah, well when the outcome of the game is riches and the outcome of not playing it is being able to pat yourself on the back I think those patting themselves on the back are going to find they are in an extreme minority.

And odious is just hyperbolic. They are getting tax allowances, not sacrificing babies.

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