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Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

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Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#81

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jsonne wrote: post #12
ProAm wrote: post #6

This plus the news that Waymo is starting its autonomous ride-share service next month is a one-two punch for Uber this week. Might be one of the largest unicorns to die in our generation.

You don't get to the size they do and simply die. They'll be acquired and vertically integrated in a way that lets them be competitive on price. You can break even on the ride if you make it up in harvesting data, showing in car advertisements, having sample products placed in cars, and a million other "fremium" style revenue harvesting techniques.

> You can break even on the ride if you make it up in harvesting data, showing in car advertisements, having sample products placed in cars

From what I recall, Uber is profitable in New York and San Francisco. Uber failing would probably involve them being bought by a private equity firm and cut back to servicing those cities.

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#82

Post by kevstev »

keyle wrote: post #4

Side note, I'm getting fed up with Uber... I'm a decent user, I use it 1-2 a week. Drivers have become worse. They used to have clean cars and were of all ethnicity. There also used to be a lot of women drivers. Now it's basically taxi drivers with their mate's cars. Cars are now often dirty, greasy interiors, dirty outside and bad smell. And as soon as you have a 'usual' route, or you use the app a lot, you get char…

> What about that '3 mins away'? They're always 3 mins away for 10 minutes. Unless they fly close to a black hole it's just lies and horrific UX.

This is my personal peeve with Uber that drives me nuts. When Uber first came out, the wait was typically a bit longer, but they were honest and upfront about the wait. I had no problem with that. If the wait was 15 minutes, I might order a beer and enjoy the wait at the bar. Or if I am leaving from home, enjoy my couch as opposed to standing outside my building's lobby.

I feel like they bait you now by always saying a car is 2-3 minutes away. Then that wait turns to 8, which turns into 8 minutes where the car just sits at an intersection, then it starts counting down. It infuriates me, but hearing about the rest of their business practices, I guess its not surprising. I have adjusted my behavior by not cutting whatever I was doing short until they are a block or two away, but it just makes for such a worse experience- my original pitch to my friends when Uber was new was "now you can have a beer inside the bar and let the cab come to you instead of going outside and fighting for a cab." Its definitely better, but I now feel like I am fighting with the app/algorithm...

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#83

Post by IanCal »

conanbatt wrote: post #53
babygoat wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they were sincerely trying to acquire new customers, why wouldn't they do anything to combat their shit reputation?

Their shit reputation has paved the ground for all the other apps that showed up afterwards. I dont think people appreciate how the ride-share revolution would not have happened without Uber's aggresive brand. Look at lyft, stuck in markets where uber is already there. Meanwhile, Uber fought legal battles and city governments all around the world: their staff often jailed and persecuted. What brand do you want to hav…

Why do people call it ride-sharing? It's not about sharing rides, it's just a taxi firm with an app.

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#84

Post by mikeash »

buzzdenver wrote: post #73
mikeash wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shows the price after the Confirm button, on the screen where you select what type of car you want.

Oh, Confirm doesn't mean "send me a car"? Inflammable means flammable??? What a country!

Yeah, it’s not exactly clear. I figured it must not be the “send me a car” button since it doesn’t have all the info it needs yet, but I can totally see why you’d get stuck at that point.

Interestingly, it only uses the “Confirm” label for airports. Other destinations say “Set Destination” which is about eight thousand times more clear.

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#85

Post by nopriorarrests »

goobynight wrote: post #78
nopriorarrests wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They need 1 billion per quarter in "fremium" revenue to get breakeven, though. Thats _plenty_ of in car ads.

That's if they want to continue with every cost they currently incur, which includes some expensive R&D.

Assuming 300-400mln out of 1B is R&D and we cut it completely, they need to make ~600mln per quarter -- which is, as comparison, in the same ballpark as the quarterly revenue of Twitter.

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#86

Post by tyre »

buzzdenver wrote: post #70
buzzdenver wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason I'm reluctant to use Lyft is that they do not say beforehand how much my ride is going to be. Edit: I stand corrected. Their UI mislead me because for airport rides the price is only shown after you hit a Confirm button, but that does not order the car as I thought, only takes you to the next screen.

I stand corrected. Their UI mislead me because the price is only shown after you hit a Confirm button, but that does not order the car as I thought, only takes you to the next screen.

I just opened the Lyft app and tried it. After entering a destination, I was taken to a screen showing the prices for the various options.

There was no confirm button Or anything else hiding prices.

(This was on iOS)

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#87

Post by conanbatt »

IanCal wrote: post #83
conanbatt wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their shit reputation has paved the ground for all the other apps that showed up afterwards. I dont think people appreciate how the ride-share revolution would not have happened without Uber's aggresive brand. Look at lyft, stuck in markets where uber is already there. Meanwhile, Uber fought legal battles and city governments all around the world: their staff often jailed and persecuted. What brand do you want to hav…

Why do people call it ride-sharing? It's not about sharing rides, it's just a taxi firm with an app.

Sure, a sleek modern taxi company that got employees in jail by city governments, and has an aggressive rep to fight back.

How many people got jobs and faster and cheaper commutes because Uber took a hit themselves to disarm local morally bankcorrupt governments?

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#88

Post by zhobbs »

Androider wrote: post #30

Uber doesn't have much of a moat or lock-in effect. I just switched one day from being a frequent Uber rider to 100% using Lyft, simply because I don't like Uber's behavior as a company. The prices are so close it doesn't make any practical difference to me. Anecdotally, among my friends I also see Lyft becoming the default, and sometimes price-checking with Uber. If Waymo or whoever came out tomorrow with a cheaper/…

Agree that the lock-in is weak compared to other markets. Their strategy has been to incentivize drivers and riders to not split usage between other apps.

Uber drivers who do a certain number of hours or rides per day/week often get bonuses, so they'd have to forego these bonuses to split time with Lyft.

On the rider side, they're pulling a play from the airline playbook, with their version of frequent flier miles and status: https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/14/uber-rewards/

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#89

Post by adventured »

marinman wrote: post #39
asteli wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a strange world we live in when people speak poorly of 38% revenue growth. To me, that seems like a staggeringly huge growth rate. I looked up the numbers independently to double check, and yep. 63% revenue growth between Q2'17/Q2'18, 38% between Q3'17/Q3'18. If my own 9 year old company was growing 38% YOY I think I'd be very very happy.

"Highly valued companies typically grow quickly or generate big profits -- and great ones do both. In the fourth quarter of 2005, Amazon.com Inc. had about the same revenue as Uber’s today -- just under $3 billion, not adjusted for inflation. Yet, Amazon earned $199 million in profit and was worth about a fourth of Uber’s $76 billion valuation." I think this graph neatly summarizes the concern at this point. There ar…

> I do wonder if the ride-sharing business will wind up like the airlines business: valuable, booming but very, very tough to consistently make large profits.

Rather, how the airline business used to be, before it consolidated down enough (in the US). Now it's a goldmine of consistent profit compared to what it used to be.

Delta - the world's most profitable airline - generated $24 billion in operating income over the prior four fiscal years; $3.3b in the last two quarters. Not impressive compared to certain tech giants, however still excellent operating profitability given the history of airlines. The major US airlines are of course domestic focused, so the corporate tax cut took them all from ~35-40% rates down to closer to 20%, further bolstering their bonanza.

It's why Warren Buffett bought ~10% of all of them (Berkshire owns 9.2% of Delta, 9.7% of American, 9.8% of Southwest, 9.8% of United). He perceived that the market had permanently shifted due to consolidation. The airlines have become more like the modern railroads, going from brutal competition to stable oligopoly and consistent profit machines.

Last four years operating income:

Delta: $24b, American: $23b, United: $17b, Southwest: $14b

Re: Uber Revenue Slows as Quarterly Loss Surges to $1.1B

#90

Post by ProAm »

jsonne wrote: post #12
ProAm wrote: post #6

This plus the news that Waymo is starting its autonomous ride-share service next month is a one-two punch for Uber this week. Might be one of the largest unicorns to die in our generation.

You don't get to the size they do and simply die. They'll be acquired and vertically integrated in a way that lets them be competitive on price. You can break even on the ride if you make it up in harvesting data, showing in car advertisements, having sample products placed in cars, and a million other "fremium" style revenue harvesting techniques.

I honestly think they will eventually license and lease their platform and technology to others and just rake in money (every cab company would pay for this type of access to customers, Uber Eats is an indication other delivery services could likely license it too for a reasonable price). That is where their true value is at.

Being acquired is still a long ways off when they still have this insanely high imaginary valuation.

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