Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
bloomberg.com
Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
1–10 of 400 posts
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#2How is it possible to write this article without mentioning MAD? The presence of nuclear self defense is what keeps nuclear armed nations from engaging in aggressive wars with other nuclear armed nations.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#3How is it possible to write this article without mentioning MAD? The presence of nuclear self defense is what keeps nuclear armed nations from engaging in aggressive wars with other nuclear armed nations.
IMO mutually-assured destruction only really guarantees that powers won't use nukes against each other.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#4How is it possible to write this article without mentioning MAD? The presence of nuclear self defense is what keeps nuclear armed nations from engaging in aggressive wars with other nuclear armed nations.
MAD is not necessarily a silver bullet preventative here. If two nuclear-armed states are fighting, for either of them to bring out the nukes would be a huge, difficult decision. It's entirely possible to imagine them settling into an unspoken "gentleman's agreement" to stick to conventional weapons only, as long as the conflict stays within certain parameters (i.e. the war doesn't pose an existential threat to either).
India and Pakistan fought a war in 1999, despite both having sizable nuclear arsenals (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War). The risk of escalation kept the scale of the fighting limited, but it didn't prevent the war altogether.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#5How is it possible to write this article without mentioning MAD? The presence of nuclear self defense is what keeps nuclear armed nations from engaging in aggressive wars with other nuclear armed nations.
Given how many close calls we had when their were only 2 relatively well-balanced superpowers and how the nuclear balance of power is becoming more unstable these days, I think the chance of nuclear war is a lot higher than most people think it is.
IMO, the chance of a nuclear war in any given year is about 1-2%. That's not very much for any particular year, but over a few decades...
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#6A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response.
I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant in certain military areas, they didn't overlap as much as they do today, so open conflict was easier to maintain. In the early 1800's France was the undisputed world leader when it came to land based combat, while the British maintained a serious advantage at sea. Today, the US is undisputed in all 3 categories, land, air, sea, and a 4th if you count space. If another country were able to take a commanding lead in at least 1 of those areas, perhaps we could see a high intensity conflict involving the US, however until that happens, there isn't much of a point.
Minor Edit: This isn't intended as support of the current situation.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#7Without the US's involvement in global trade Europe & Asia will likely erupt in war again. The US would be immune to most of the violence though.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#8A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response. I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant i…
I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#9A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response. I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant i…
I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.
No, is not for you the worrying. US is best in all the cybers.
Da, is good, comrade, is good.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#10A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response. I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant i…
I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.
The answer to the last part is "the US is probably in the lead or at least competitive to the lead."
Keep in mind that Stuxnet is generally figured to be a joint American/Israeli cyberweapon.