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How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

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Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#21
post #11

As per Wikipedia: >Qualtrics reported revenue of $190.6 million in 2016 and $289.9 million in 2017 representing year over year growth of 52%. In 2016, Qualtrics reported an overall net loss of $12 million with free cash flow of $3.4 million. In 2017, Qualtrics reported a $2.6 million net profit with free cash flow of $21.3 million Is it normal for companies to be bought at 30x their revenue or am I missing something…

I heard that what you have to pay for a company is something like what the company will be able to make in 20-30 years. Not sure if you couldn't build it your own for that kind of money.

3 years was the standard for a long time. It still is the standard outside of tech as far as I have heard. Tech gets different/higher valuations because of the expected hockey-stick growth pattern, which makes future revenue non-linear, so you pay a higher multiple if you have that level of growth.

Even so, Qualtrics got a really good exit here.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#22

Can someone please genuinely explain the need of such software products to me? I work in VLSI engineering and such things sound like a total superflous bullshit-bingo to me (stats, dashboards, metrics, "value proposition", "targeting", "customer segmentation") I suppose I think so because I am a total layman in these fields. I'd greatly appreciate if someone could explain - is this a thing that acutally helps with so…

I'm not so keen on the marketing fluff either, but there are definitely needs being met. The cases I'm most familiar with are in psychological research, which consists of having people fill in a lot of questionnaires (asking about mood, stress-levels, or testing cognitive skills). Qualtrics provides a service to easily build these questionnaires, send them out to respondents, and collect their response (and export the data for later analysis in packages like SPSS). With a little bit of extra work, you can even do highly interactive tasks like Stroop through Qualtrics. For the average psychologist this would simply be undoable without this type of software.

Similarly, class-action lawsuits often require sign-in through filling in some sort of questionnaire. Previously, these questionnaires would be handled through live phone interview, which is obviously very intensive for both the interviewee and interviewer. The questionnaires are often quite interactive, with different questions being asked dependent on answers to previous questions, or aggregates of previous questions. It would take skilled interviewers a while to learn to interview for any one questionnaire. Qualtrics (and similar survey software) makes this process much, much simpler.

You then also have your regular marketing research, the value of which can be debated... but it is obvious people are willing to pay for the creation and distribution of such questionnaires.

Beyond this, I'm sure there are a bunch of other applications of the software.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#23

As per Wikipedia: >Qualtrics reported revenue of $190.6 million in 2016 and $289.9 million in 2017 representing year over year growth of 52%. In 2016, Qualtrics reported an overall net loss of $12 million with free cash flow of $3.4 million. In 2017, Qualtrics reported a $2.6 million net profit with free cash flow of $21.3 million Is it normal for companies to be bought at 30x their revenue or am I missing something…

It's not normal for stable companies to be bought at 20x their stable revenue.

However, if the revenue is $190m followed by $290m followed by $400m, then that shows that the expected future revenue (which matters for the valuation) likely is much larger than $400m, so it takes a much smaller, more reasonable multiplier to reach $8B.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#24

Can someone please genuinely explain the need of such software products to me? I work in VLSI engineering and such things sound like a total superflous bullshit-bingo to me (stats, dashboards, metrics, "value proposition", "targeting", "customer segmentation") I suppose I think so because I am a total layman in these fields. I'd greatly appreciate if someone could explain - is this a thing that acutally helps with so…

There's a few things involved, and they're not all BS!

You want to build a couple new features. You have 60 person-hours at your disposal. Which one do your users want?

Build two quick prototypes and see which one people actually use more.

You need to convince people to give you money (aka "get customers"). You're not sure what the best way to convince them is. Try 3 different approaches (Landing page with tech details? Youtube ads with customer stories? etc) and see which one works before you spend all of your budget on something nobody uses.

Out of a thousand people walking down the street, only one _might_ be interested in what you do. How do you make sure you focus your efforts on that one person?

Or "we have a million f2p video game players. 99% of them will never spend a dime. 0.1% of them will buy a $100 package once. 0.01% of them will buy a $9.99 package three thousand times. When should we present this package to them? Will we sell more $100 packages if we ALSO have a $200 package? Will we sell more $100 packages to Jane Doe who takes the bus to college at 8:45 AM and plays for 34 minutes 5 days a week?" (obviously that one gets a bit more troublesome)

The above comes with some severe implications re: privacy, filter bubbles, etc. but it's not there for no reason. Though there's plenty of people who just want pretty charts for their own sake; having worked in analytics the toughest question is "we have these charts.. umm... so what now?"

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#25
> After college, Ryan said he wanted adventure and went to South Korea to teach English. One of his early lessons in entrepreneurship came there. While most foreign tutors were scraping by on next to nothing, he decided to try private tutoring by putting flyers offering his teaching services in mail boxes.

It's illegal. That's why not all English teachers in Korea are doing it.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#26

As per Wikipedia: >Qualtrics reported revenue of $190.6 million in 2016 and $289.9 million in 2017 representing year over year growth of 52%. In 2016, Qualtrics reported an overall net loss of $12 million with free cash flow of $3.4 million. In 2017, Qualtrics reported a $2.6 million net profit with free cash flow of $21.3 million Is it normal for companies to be bought at 30x their revenue or am I missing something…

MongoDB has a similar 20x ratio.

I won’t argue if this is warranted, but companies like this have:

- Very high gross margins once you take out fixed costs. (80+%) This implies massive profitability once you exceed fixed costs.

- Negative net churn. (Their existing accounts grow more than they lose) This implies if they got rid of their sales force, they could still grow.

- Their payback on sales investments is quick, usually less than a year. This allows them to heavily invest in topline growth.

When you do all this, the math works at 10X in a low interest rate environment, or if you project a very long growth period. Perhaps 20X is Fear Of Missing Out?

The stock market’s reaction to SAP (Knocking off 5 non in value) suggests that 8-10X is more reasonable.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#27

I used this service as a psychology student, to my dismay if I may add. To the dismay of other students, I'd always code up my own surveys :D I wonder though, how is there space for: Qualtrics, Survey Monkey, Wufoo (back in the day) and a lot of others that I presumably don't know about. I feel most of these survey engines provide the same thing.

May I know what was your needs that required you to code your own survey?

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#28

As per Wikipedia: >Qualtrics reported revenue of $190.6 million in 2016 and $289.9 million in 2017 representing year over year growth of 52%. In 2016, Qualtrics reported an overall net loss of $12 million with free cash flow of $3.4 million. In 2017, Qualtrics reported a $2.6 million net profit with free cash flow of $21.3 million Is it normal for companies to be bought at 30x their revenue or am I missing something…

I'm not very familiar with IPOs or buy-outs, but for going concerns it's usual to look at the price-earnings ratio rather than the price-revenue ratio.

Ford, for example, has revenue of $37.67B last quarter but net income of only $991M. With a market cap of $37.31B, that means a price to earnings ratio of 9.5.

Microsoft had less revenue, at $30.08B last quarter, but net income of $8.87B. It has a market cap many times that of Ford, at $841.08B both because it has so much higher earnings and because it has a PE ratio of 23.9, which implies that the market things those earnings will grow at a good clip.

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#29
post #22

Can someone please genuinely explain the need of such software products to me? I work in VLSI engineering and such things sound like a total superflous bullshit-bingo to me (stats, dashboards, metrics, "value proposition", "targeting", "customer segmentation") I suppose I think so because I am a total layman in these fields. I'd greatly appreciate if someone could explain - is this a thing that acutally helps with so…

I'm not so keen on the marketing fluff either, but there are definitely needs being met. The cases I'm most familiar with are in psychological research, which consists of having people fill in a lot of questionnaires (asking about mood, stress-levels, or testing cognitive skills). Qualtrics provides a service to easily build these questionnaires, send them out to respondents, and collect their response (and export th…

thank you, that was very informative. this is really hard to understand all of this, when on a landing page of the product you see only markitng BS :)

Re: How one family built Qualtrics to an $8B exit

#30

I used the service in college. It was prettt powerful. I did some demand estimation and some work for local businesses with it. I didn’t find it 8 billion dollars amazing but who knows it could be much better than other tools out there — it was just free through my university. Kudos to them for avoiding VC money for so long.

Please remember that Skype was bought by MS for 8.5 Billion (yes, crappy Skype). Of course it was bought for it's prevalence and big existing audience(i'm guessing). Certainly not for it's great UI/UX and Communication capabilities (I hate Skype).

https://www.wired.com/2011/05/microsoft-buys-skype-2/

So anything marginally better could certainly be worth much, much more (as in this powerful Qualtrics products suite).

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