Live data from Hacker News

A List of Open Questions

gwern.net

81–89 of 89 posts

Re: A List of Open Questions

#81

>Why did Jean Calment live so many more years than other centenarians, breaking all records and setting a life expectancy record which decades later has not just not been broken, but not even approached? > she requested to be woken at 6:45 am and started the day with a long prayer at her window thanking God for being alive and for the beautiful day which was starting, sometimes loudly asking the reason for her longev…

I'm sure you probably realize this, but it's hard to believe that she would be the only one to have this type of routine. It seems fairly common...

Re: A List of Open Questions

#82
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if the claim is not that my marginal vote is worth 0, but rather that the worth of my marginal vote is very small - so small that the marginal cost of driving to the voting booth and waiting in line is overwhelmingly higher. What mathematical or logical argument can you use to convince someone that is convinced by this weakened line of reasoning? Even in my own state, which has a relatively convenient vote-by-ma…

That's a bit different. I can buy on principle that it's possible the value of your time is so high it doesn't make sense for you to e.g. vote red in a blue state. But if we ground this back in reality, most people do not hyperoptimize their time based on marginal utilities because it would be nearly impossible to achieve that kind of efficiency. So I'll buy it principle, but I'd need some convincing it applies to an…

It's not really hyperoptimization if the cost of voting is prima facie higher than the value. I think it's on the "get out the vote" side to prove that voting is worth it - and I don't think the average American would be swayed by a statistical argument proving that the value of voting is greater than 0.

Re: A List of Open Questions

#83
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on your last paragraph, we're in (apparently violent) agreement. I would not call you a fool for playing a lottery where you pay nothing to have a nonzero chance of winning $6,000. Voting does not cost the voter anything, but it has a non-negligible chance of gaining the voter an upside.

I think you missed my point. When I vote, I'm paying $6000 to play a lottery where I have a nonzero (but very small) chance of affecting policy.

When you put it that way, I don't think I understand your point. When you vote you actually don't pay anything.

And if you have a nonzero chance of affecting policy with your vote, your vote definitionally matters. We're in agreement on this. We can quarrel about the normative of whether or not there's a marginal cost that outweighs the benefits of voting, but it's functionally free and materially meaningful.

Re: A List of Open Questions

#84
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a bit different. I can buy on principle that it's possible the value of your time is so high it doesn't make sense for you to e.g. vote red in a blue state. But if we ground this back in reality, most people do not hyperoptimize their time based on marginal utilities because it would be nearly impossible to achieve that kind of efficiency. So I'll buy it principle, but I'd need some convincing it applies to an…

It's not really hyperoptimization if the cost of voting is prima facie higher than the value. I think it's on the "get out the vote" side to prove that voting is worth it - and I don't think the average American would be swayed by a statistical argument proving that the value of voting is greater than 0.

It is hyperoptimization, because most people do not do a rigorous cost benefit analysis of all their behavior based on the marginal costs and utility of their time. Most people barely do any kind of optimization, in fact. They might decide not to vote because they're cynical or lazy, but that's (strictly speaking) different from rationally choosing not to vote because you consistently avoid doing things which are a net negative in value compared to your time.

I've already proven for you that a single vote matters. You can reject that proof, just like you can reject a proof that the square root of 2 is irrational, but you wouldn't be doing so on a logical basis. That covers the positive question of whether or not your individual vote matters - any argument against this basically boils down to, "But I don't feel like it matters, because so many other individual people are voting."

As for the normative case of whether or not to vote - again, I'm open to your time being so expensive you shouldn't vote in principle. But in practice, I'd be pretty skeptical of most people trying to make that claim. If Jeff Bezos and homeless people alike are willing to vote, a plea to the value of your time isn't that compelling, even in the ivory tower of game theory. If such a person spent (cumulatively) an hour or two without deriving any productivity from their time on election day, they should have voted if they were otherwise capable of doing so.

Re: A List of Open Questions

#85
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely. I don't understand why you're getting down-voted without actual refutals. I guess it generates some internal/psychological discomfort, but I expected better of HN readers. Indeed, the only animals suffering from obesity and modern civilisation diseases (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's and other degenerative or systemic diseases) are humans and those animals of other species unfortunate enoug…

This might be true but is very surprising (since Omega 6 polyunsaturated fatty acids are found poultry, eggs, nuts etc... which I thought to be rather "healthy" in general) I found this [1] abstract which supports your point. Is there more evidence? Also what's the relation between inflammation and obesity? [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610056

The amount of omega-6 PUFAs in eggs is almost negligible compared to MUFAs and SFAs [1, table 1]. Assuming that a single egg yolk is around 20 grams, that's less than 1 gram of omega-6 per egg. One would have to eat an absurd amount of eggs daily (think >50) for it to matter.

Some nuts and seeds do contain high amounts of omega-6. Sunflower seeds and peanuts especially. That is why non-high-oleic sunflower oil is so bad for health. Almonds, hazelnuts, macadamias and others have much better fatty acid profiles.

In general, all industrially extracted vegetable oils are rich in pro-inflammatory omega-6 fatty acids. Replacing them with animal fats or cold-pressed vegetable oils (olive, avocado or coconut, all of them relatively low in omega-6) is a very easy dietary intervention that should have a profound effect on health, similar to cutting sugars.

Here is a non-comprehensive list of studies and articles if you want to dig a bit deeper:

- https://openheart.bmj.com/content/1/1/e000032

- https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jnme/2012/539426/

- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10988...

- https://openheart.bmj.com/content/openhrt/5/2/e000898.full.p...

- https://breaknutrition.com/omega-6-fatty-acids-alternative-h...

- https://www.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/ajpheart.00480.20... (especially interesting as it points to a possible synergy of omega-6 fatty acids and carbohydrates)

I hope that helps.

[1]: https://academic.oup.com/ps/article-pdf/79/8/1168/8203403/po...

Re: A List of Open Questions

#86
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This might be true but is very surprising (since Omega 6 polyunsaturated fatty acids are found poultry, eggs, nuts etc... which I thought to be rather "healthy" in general) I found this [1] abstract which supports your point. Is there more evidence? Also what's the relation between inflammation and obesity? [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610056

The amount of omega-6 PUFAs in eggs is almost negligible compared to MUFAs and SFAs [1, table 1]. Assuming that a single egg yolk is around 20 grams, that's less than 1 gram of omega-6 per egg. One would have to eat an absurd amount of eggs daily (think >50) for it to matter. Some nuts and seeds do contain high amounts of omega-6. Sunflower seeds and peanuts especially. That is why non-high-oleic sunflower oil is so…

Uh this sucks peanut is my favorite thing in the world :( Thanks I'll check those links.

Re: A List of Open Questions

#89
post #45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MMA is new, historically speaking. BJJ is the best fighting style that fits the rules of MMA. Change the rules a bit and a different style will work better.

Whats the minimal change in the rules that will bring a striking based martial art to the top?

Allow for more than one attacker.
Post reply on HN