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Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

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Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#131

Post by andrestan »

rburhum wrote: post #121
standerman wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts w…

Stock market "correction" != recession.

It's also not even remotely clear to me that a plot of 500 of the largest corporations in the US SHOULDN'T be growing extremely/exponentially fast.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#132

Post by zjaffee »

rburhum wrote: post #121
standerman wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts w…

Market corrections and recessions aren't the same thing, the chart you posted clearly shows Black Monday as not being a result of a recession. A rebalancing of the stock market at large doesn't necessarily result in mass unemployment, followed by mass foreclosure and so on.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#133

Post by jakelarkin »

jhayward wrote: post #128
sct202 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have low taxes in comparison to other states, partially because they can rely on taxes and licensing fees on mineral extraction (oil) to fund things that other states would have to fund thru other taxes.

Texas is one of the highest tax states in the union. Simply because there is no income tax does not imply low taxation. For instance, property taxes in Williamson County (Austin suburb, extremely conservative, are at 3.08% for new construction homes. Compare that to any other state.

... that's compared to +1.5% in SF/Alameda on houses 2-3x the cost and worse size/quality (and up to a 1.5% transfer tax in some cities).

California has the highest state income tax, near top sales tax rates and if you are a recent home buyer some of the highest absolute property taxes (thanks to the price dynamic described above). Plus you get screwed on federal SALT caps, mortgage interest deduction and maybe AMT.

I'll gladly take your 3% if there were more options for interesting places to work and it was not 110 degrees in the summer.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#134

Post by rmason »

dmode wrote: post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

So are the two cities going to cut their economic package in half considering they're getting half the jobs? Bet you they're not.

This is unfair to cities not making the list like Detroit. If Detroit was judged on only having to provide half the jobs would it not have been disqualified? Amazon changes the rules mid-stream.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#135

Post by akhilcacharya »

bradchris wrote: post #61
chrisco255 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ft. Worth, right next door, is not though. I don't see this happening, by the way. Abbott is up by 15-20 points in the polls this year. And Texas is just different, culturally, than these other states. You can have your LGBTQ anti-discrimination and TX still remain red, BTW. They're not mutually exclusive.

Fort Worth is the largest non-Democratic city in all of the US, yes, but if you also look at every election you can see it too is turning bluer and bluer. Also, the government race is not a good indicator. Lupe Valdez has made mistake after mistake in her campaign — I’m liberal, and even I wasn’t enthusiastic about voting for her. She’s doing so bad that she’s polling less than the percentage of registered Democrats…

>Hillary did better in Texas than any Democrat since Reagan. Also, Texas last had a Blue governor in 1994. Texas hasn’t always been red — only for the past two decades — and it won’t stay red forever.

In terms of margins she did better than any Democrat since Bill. Bill had a 3 point and 5 point loss respectively thanks to Ross Perot.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#136

Post by monocasa »

woofyman wrote: post #90
monocasa wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be Atlanta. They didn't even hook up public transit to the new Braves stadium because it would, to quote the county commissioner, "attract a certain type of person". The MARTA there is known as Moving Africans Rapidly Through Atlanta by that crowd.

That’s not Atlanta. That’s Cobb county.

Which is such a part of the metro that the Atlanta Braves' stadium is there.

Like it's only not annexed by Atlanta because they made a ten foot wide city called Chattahoochee Plantation on the border of the county.

EDIT: It's like saying that Arlington isn't part of DC, which while technically true, misses the whole point. Atlanta proper is only about 1/10 the population of the metro.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#137

Post by bsder »

kodablah wrote: post #130
jdeibele wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, you and I couldn't see things more differently. Sports teams are doing this to cities constantly. Build us a new sports stadium at your expense that will be used 8-10 times a year. We'll take the concession revenue, the parking revenue, etc. Maybe we'll let you have a tax on food. Maybe we'll move away before the city is done paying for the stadium. See St. Louis and the Rams. It's rare that a city like San Dieg…

These items go to a vote. I, like the commenter you're responding to, appreciate this mobility and community choice. That a smaller set of citizens can choose abatements at their own expense is much better than it being done in a capital far away. Many times it's great that self-determinism, be it propositions, bonds, sports teams, taxes, etc, is welcomed at the community level and is always scary when curbed by larg…

> These items go to a vote.

And they get voted down. And the moneyed interests jam them through anyway.

I was stunned when the Chargers finally got told to get lost out of San Diego and it stuck.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#139

Post by cwal37 »

kevinconaway wrote: post #9
nextstep wrote: post #7

I’d bet money on the two being Crystal City, VA and Denver. The DC suburb makes sense for an East Coast hub, and it’s smart to be near the capital for DoD contracts. And Denver is a nice, growing tech city with an attractive lifestyle.

Crystal City is a nightmare from a commuting perspective and an awful place to live. Its more or less a ghost town since BRAC moved out a bunch of agencies and contractors a few years ago. This had the effect of hollowing out what little independent retail / dining there was there as most of it catered to the office lunch crowd. From a commuting perspective, its right across the river from DC which makes it very diff…

Crystal City is a nightmare from a commuting perspective only if you're dead set on driving, and even then it depends very much on where you're coming from. I've lived on the Yellow/Blue lines south of DCA, now I'm in west Arlington, and I've done plenty of commuting along that corridor by bus/train/bike/car (Mt. Vernon/4 mile run/ W &OD trails for biking/running as a commute is very effective).

Also there's a relatively high concentration of metro stops as is for a section that's not urban/DC core, and Potomac Yard is finally coming in in a couple years as well. Plus a pretty high commercial vacancy and a bit of marginal land that can still be developed. I mean, the dream would be they come in there and somehow spur additional transit down Columbia Pike, but that's probably a bit too much to hope for.

It's also already not easy at all to buy a home there (speaking as someone who bought a place in Arlington a few months ago), so it must not be too awful to live there.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#140

Post by TomMarius »

Kephael wrote: post #104
fipple wrote: post #47

HQ2 was never going to be a true second HQ but now it’s not even going to be close. Cities just fellated Amazon for a satellite office.

The only HQ is where the CEO sits.

What if the CEO has a standing desk?

Just kidding. What about completely remote companies, or companies where the CEO is remote?

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