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Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

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Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#121

Post by rburhum »

standerman wrote: post #79
dmode wrote: post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU

We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession).

If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation.

The charts was generated from here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...

Edit: FYI I did not imply that market corrections == recession. The reason I put the image is to show that there hasn't been a recession in 10 years and that we are due for one. We have had a few market corrections this year, but no recession yet.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#122

Post by jldugger »

rburhum wrote: post #121
standerman wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

I am just going to leave you with this image here that shows the SP&500 since 1928: https://imgur.com/a/JCMbIvU We have had 10 years of growth since the last recession (every gray line is a recession). If you take into account the market corrections that we have seen this year as a sign, most people in finance will agree that there will be a correction in the next three years. It is far from speculation. The charts w…

Now plot a expoential regression on it -- where _should_ we be?

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#123

Post by mrep »

didgeoridoo wrote: post #51
psychometry wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be good for a red state to get an HQ, though, since educated people will for once migrate there instead of away from there.

Except the net migration flow in recent decades has been from "blue" to "red" states, not the other way around... do you have any source for the claim that those moving are disproportionately not "educated" people? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/04/24/the_po...

Well obviously all educated people vote democratic because only uneducated people would ever vote republican \s

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#124

Post by mcculley »

I have been wondering if any of the cities that proposed will make their proposals public once the final decision has been made. My own city, Orlando, released only a redacted version of the proposal. How should cities and states manage the tension between their duty to transparency and the competitive advantage of keeping proposals secret?

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#125

Post by chrisco255 »

bradchris wrote: post #61
chrisco255 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ft. Worth, right next door, is not though. I don't see this happening, by the way. Abbott is up by 15-20 points in the polls this year. And Texas is just different, culturally, than these other states. You can have your LGBTQ anti-discrimination and TX still remain red, BTW. They're not mutually exclusive.

Fort Worth is the largest non-Democratic city in all of the US, yes, but if you also look at every election you can see it too is turning bluer and bluer. Also, the government race is not a good indicator. Lupe Valdez has made mistake after mistake in her campaign — I’m liberal, and even I wasn’t enthusiastic about voting for her. She’s doing so bad that she’s polling less than the percentage of registered Democrats…

We'll see how the Beto-Cruz vote turns out. Still think it will be closer to +10 for Cruz. Trump was a pretty unconventional R candidate. A lot of establishment Republicans (which are stronger in TX than elsewhere) were unenthused about Trump.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#126

Post by BonesJustice »

dmode wrote: post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

I was annoyed that New York was courting them. The last thing our already insane housing market needs is an influx of more highly-paid engineers.

But at least we didn't offer them crazy tax incentives like some other cities.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#127

Post by kodablah »

ilikehurdles wrote: post #77
adventured wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd place that bet on Northern Virginia as guaranteed and Chicago, Atlanta or Dallas as the other most plausible, with Toronto being a slight possibility since they're going with two. Colorado is nice, but it's nothing compared to the Texas population and economic boom. 28m people in Texas, versus 5m in Colorado. Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense b…

I agree with some of your other points... however > Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense bonus. Denver already has light rail connecting the airport, Boulder, and Golden as well as other metro areas, as well as amtrak, shuttles, and other public transport to the mountain regions for skiing and other recreation. It's also among the most bike-friendly c…

> Denver-Boulder's tech scene is much more vibrant than DFW's

I'm not sure what this is based on. Do you mean like startups? Or general tech companies? Or large companies with significant tech presence? So much of this thread has devolved into these kinds of suppositions and city comparisons. Why do these discussions always come to this, with everyone rushing to defend one metro and demonize another?

> Dallas also doesn't have the tech talent pool and established network of transplanted tech companies that Austin already has

I think this may be making the same mistake of assuming a few satellite offices of a few large companies makes a difference. Or that you hear more about startups on this site and others gives a certain impression.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#128

Post by jhayward »

sct202 wrote: post #40
xrd wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on the Texan business environment? This is often lauded by Texas politicians. What makes it different and possible, since it obviously isn't being duplicated in other cities.

They have low taxes in comparison to other states, partially because they can rely on taxes and licensing fees on mineral extraction (oil) to fund things that other states would have to fund thru other taxes.

Texas is one of the highest tax states in the union. Simply because there is no income tax does not imply low taxation.

For instance, property taxes in Williamson County (Austin suburb, extremely conservative, are at 3.08% for new construction homes. Compare that to any other state.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#129

Post by dragonwriter »

hcg wrote: post #116
yourbandsucks wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an unnuanced and dare I say prejudiced comment. Whatever happened to liberals? We used to be the open-minded ones. Even if you're just coming at it from a place of power politics.. you think MORE packing of liberals into fewer and fewer areas is going to swing it for us? If tech companies were serious about liberal politics, they'd be opening big offices in TX and OH. Could solidify the blue wall for a generatio…

Tech companies are serious about liberal politics. Part of that is ensuring they keep things as center to slightly right as possible and toss some money at social causes to keep their rep. If the democrats actually won consistently they might start to shift left. These companies do not want a strengthened left wing in the US.

> Tech companies are serious about liberal politics.

Yes, they do.

> Part of that is ensuring they keep things as center to slightly right as possible

Liberal politics are center-right.

> If the democrats actually won consistently they might start to shift left.

They might, at which point tech companies (and other big firms) would be less likely to support them.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#130

Post by kodablah »

jdeibele wrote: post #97
randyrand wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish all cities competed for residents in this way. I think it would drastically improve our government if there was an actually significant risk of people leaving when the government messed up.

Wow, you and I couldn't see things more differently. Sports teams are doing this to cities constantly. Build us a new sports stadium at your expense that will be used 8-10 times a year. We'll take the concession revenue, the parking revenue, etc. Maybe we'll let you have a tax on food. Maybe we'll move away before the city is done paying for the stadium. See St. Louis and the Rams. It's rare that a city like San Dieg…

These items go to a vote. I, like the commenter you're responding to, appreciate this mobility and community choice. That a smaller set of citizens can choose abatements at their own expense is much better than it being done in a capital far away. Many times it's great that self-determinism, be it propositions, bonds, sports teams, taxes, etc, is welcomed at the community level and is always scary when curbed by larger entities. There are levels and limitations of course, but to say the community's financial choices here should be outlawed is unfair.
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