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Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

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Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The writing is on the wall — Texas will turn blue sooner than later. Dallas is a liberal stronghold in Texas, and in absolute numbers turns out more for Democrats than any other city in the state, including Austin (percentage-wise Austin wins by +5%, I believe). Unlike Austin, which is gerrymandered in the state legislature, every single state/county/city official in Dallas is a Democrat. Dallas is also a gay rights…

I am in Dallas at least once per year. A couple months ago I was there, and around my wife's parents' house, almost every yard had a Beto sign. So I can verify that this is true, at least for some parts of Dallas.

Anecdotal too, but everywhere in Dallas I see Beto signs — even in the affluent white neighborhoods. Hillary even won the conservative neighborhoods in 2016, and Sessions, a staunch conservative incumbent in the House of Representatives, could very well lose his seat — Hillary won his district by two points.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#72
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crystal City is a nightmare from a commuting perspective and an awful place to live. Its more or less a ghost town since BRAC moved out a bunch of agencies and contractors a few years ago. This had the effect of hollowing out what little independent retail / dining there was there as most of it catered to the office lunch crowd. From a commuting perspective, its right across the river from DC which makes it very diff…

> Its more or less a ghost town since BRAC moved out a bunch of agencies and contractors a few years ago. This had the effect of hollowing out what little independent retail / dining there was there as most of it catered to the office lunch crowd. That seems to match south lake union in Seattle, which used to be warehouses and car dealerships.

True, but the location was always central rather than peripheral.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#73
post #36

Ruth Graham, a writer for Slate, commented on this this morning[0]: " A sword was brought & Bezos said “Cut HQ2 in half. Each of you can have part of it.” “Please don’t split HQ2,” the true host city screamed. “Go ahead, cut it in half," the other city said. Bezos pointed to the first city. “This is the real host. Put the headquarters here.” " It makes me wonder if this is another negotiation tatic by Amazon to get t…

I suspect you are correct; this is a way to make the two cities compete to please / to accommodate / to benefit Amazon and get the headlines that they are Amazon's choice for X, Y, Z reason. Amazon's gravity is quite strong, and its tactics very honed.

I wish all cities competed for residents in this way.

I think it would drastically improve our government if there was an actually significant risk of people leaving when the government messed up.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#74
post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

Trying to find cheap engineering is not a last ditch effort Amazon is going to resort to because there is a recession.

They have already expanded their engineering foot print in India and have continued to look beyond the US market when it comes to talent.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#75

I’m biased, but I’ve had a feeling in the beginning it was always going to be Dallas in some capacity: 1. DC area may have three potential cities, but Texas is the only other region that has two cities being considered 2. DFW airport is one of the US’s busiest airports, and American Airlines is headquartered there, so you can get a direct flight to anywhere in the country in 3 hours tops. Amazon already has multiple…

> Public transit, continued investment, world class museums, and honestly a pretty hip city with a lot of activity in the center, not unlike Seattle. Also lots of millennials moving there for its low cost of living and ample jobs. Minus museums, this could be said of plenty of other cities that are in places with less wacky politics. Museums don't mean a thing. Low cost of living as a requirement means a relative low…

What an unnuanced and dare I say prejudiced comment. Whatever happened to liberals? We used to be the open-minded ones.

Even if you're just coming at it from a place of power politics.. you think MORE packing of liberals into fewer and fewer areas is going to swing it for us? If tech companies were serious about liberal politics, they'd be opening big offices in TX and OH. Could solidify the blue wall for a generation with a few 10k people.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#76
post #62
post #4

I was hoping for a significant cooling of the Seattle housing market with a full fledged hq2, but it appears it will be seattle first for quite a while I’d guess.

The Seattle housing market is already cooling faster than anywhere in the country, and has been for a while (newspapers tend to be a few months behind in this type of news): https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-ho...

Its got a very high perch to cool down from. There's definitely a seasonal element to the current slowdown - price drops are happening, but prices are still up 5% YOY. I'm hoping for a correction or at least 0% for a little bit.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#77
post #7

I’d bet money on the two being Crystal City, VA and Denver. The DC suburb makes sense for an East Coast hub, and it’s smart to be near the capital for DoD contracts. And Denver is a nice, growing tech city with an attractive lifestyle.

I'd place that bet on Northern Virginia as guaranteed and Chicago, Atlanta or Dallas as the other most plausible, with Toronto being a slight possibility since they're going with two. Colorado is nice, but it's nothing compared to the Texas population and economic boom. 28m people in Texas, versus 5m in Colorado. Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense b…

I agree with some of your other points... however

> Texas is also building high-speed rail, which will end up linking all of their major cities, an immense bonus.

Denver already has light rail connecting the airport, Boulder, and Golden as well as other metro areas, as well as amtrak, shuttles, and other public transport to the mountain regions for skiing and other recreation. It's also among the most bike-friendly cities I've seen in the US, with routes extending extremely far and having a vibrant cycling culture. Workers commute with all of these options every day.

For being a smaller metro, Denver-Boulder's tech scene is much more vibrant than DFW's. Amazon _already_ has tech offices in both Boulder and Denver.

Among Texas cities, Dallas also doesn't have the tech talent pool and established network of transplanted tech companies that Austin already has, let alone the politics that many west coast tech workers (and Bezos) find attractive (although that point is kind of moot, because either way it's still Texas).

I don't really think it's going to be Denver, either. I'd be really disappointed if it's Dallas. I expect Chicago, Boston, DC, or Atlanta.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#78
Can't speak for the other cities but there's been a steady expansion of Amazon in Toronto.

I suspect in the end they'll keep expanding in a quiet and steady pace while never officially declaring a "HQ2" at all whilst the cities feud over who gets the title and keep handing out incentives.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#79
post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

"There is a recession coming in the near future, which could result in Amazon looking for cheaper developers globally." It's dangerous to post speculative things with such certainty. The future is never guaranteed.

Re: Amazon Plans to Split HQ2 Evenly Between Two Cities

#80
post #56

Amazon is playing cities like chump. I had a sense in the beginning of this process that Amazon doesn’t really want to build a HQ2. They just want to open another office. Most large tech companies have large campuses across multiple cities. This exercise is no different than that. But Bezos branded it HQ2 to maximize handout. I also predict that they will end up hiring far less than the 25k projected. There is a rece…

Don't just about all big corporations with some "weight" behind them do this though? A company employing tens of thousands floats the idea that they might leave the city/state due to some new proposed corporate tax legislation or something, and then the city/state exempts them from the increases to get them to stay since they're such a "big employer?" Isn't this just "negotiating from a position of strength?"

This happens in Oregon all of the time with Intel. We don't have a sales tax - we have an income tax and property tax. Everytime we want to raise property taxes, Intel makes a big stink and we give them presents to appease them.

https://www.oregonlive.com/hillsboro/index.ssf/2014/08/intel... https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/09/us/fighting-sprawl-oregon...

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