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Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

theguardian.com

151–160 of 165 posts

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you pointed out, one of the issues is special interests. But in a rational world, it is obvious that people will use whatever tools at their disposal to improve their chances. So by definition, any sentient and rational society will have lobbying - anywhere in the universe. So this is not a bug but a feature. In theory these lobby groups will be dragged to a stale mate by counter lobby groups, but practically the…

I am not sure I agree with your insistence on using the word rational. What is rational depends entirely on the perspective of the agent observing and is not a useful assumption, in my opinion. I want to touch on what you said about lobbies and give you my take on it. The characteristics of successful lobbies have three key properties. Within any dispute/issue the most important quality that determines influence of a…

Great points on lobbying. I believe there’s an economics paper on the effects of lobbying out there, so it might be of interest to you. Sadly I don’t know it’s name :/.

By the way, If the issue is with my tone or perceived attitude, please note that this is my question- what precisely is the path to success?

I don’t get the issue with the term rational, I mean it in the same way you define it.

Locally solutions may not result in a global solution to the climate problem (because of externalities). What the issue with rational in this case ?

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#152
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you banned the pesticides, it would do a lot of good, but now consider how many more acres would need to be farmed in order to keep the overall yields the same. How many acres would be cleared that would not otherwise be cleared? The argument above, if I'm not mistaken, is that we should produce less food, and so if that is the objective, we can farm the same acreage with a lower yield per acre just fine. Less s…

What about the humans who eat that food ? Should we kill them now or just let them starve ? (there's only a few percent more food than needed, so ...)

In first world countries, e.g. US and Europe, the amount of food wasted is massive and if there's anybody still starving in these countries, that's not because of a food shortage.

Also the wasted food cannot be shipped to countries that need it, like Africa, without a high cost, unless you're talking about food low in nutrients, like sugar, flour or corn, that can be stored for months or years and that does nothing to help those populations, because they need proteins, they need nutrients.

So the starvation argument makes absolutely no sense.

Also I believe that in some cases a lower yield per acre should reduce the costs. If you eliminate the waste, if you make the distribution channels efficient, if you keep the soil healthy, production costs should in fact go down.

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#153
post #92
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "50% of species" rather than "50% of population", which is a very big difference Loss of 50% of species is really bad. Population growth and climate change will only accelerate the loss. While I would welcome a decrease of the population of farm animals by 50% or 75%. https://xkcd.com/1338/ Besides, humans will never die out because of lack of "resources". Instead: - either the sun kills all intelligent life on Ear…

You're being downvoted. I too voted this post of yours down, let me explain why; sheer hubris. > Besides, humans will never die out because of lack of "resources". We are in grave danger of dying out; because of lack resources and because of our mind-boggling stupidity, sheer arrogance and our inability to deal with our tribal instincts. You might (or not) have noticed that humans don't exist outside of the ecologica…

Thanks for the clarification. I guess you did not downvote me. As always, reasonable interesting people do not downvote so easily.

> We are in grave danger of dying out;

I do not think so and there is no reason at all to think so.

Again: https://xkcd.com/

Again: I welcome a reduction of farm animals by 50% or 75%.

> because of lack resources

What resources of and on Earth are scarce in your opinion ?

Depending on skills and technology, they are not scarce for a world population of 10 billion humans or they are scarce with a world population of 1 human.

> and because of our mind-boggling stupidity, sheer arrogance and our inability to deal with our tribal instincts.

Yes, most societies worldwide are very insane. Obvious proofs: Wars and military and poverty in 2018. All elected and re-elected US presidents being evil mass murdering war criminals.

IMO, humanity is not so insane that humanity will die out. If people became vegan and current morality and practices and technology improved we could live in a biological paradise even with 10 billion people.

Improvements like cooperation instead of competition, waste treatment, recycling, no fossil fuel, no insane individual commuting every day because of flexibility, no insane transport of products, less waste of time and energy for needless production,...

I live in Belgium.

Do Belgians need butter from Ireland ? No.

Do Belgians need milk products transported around Europe ? No.

I studied agriculture at university so I know a little more than the average arrogant angry downvoter.

And I am in favor of transhumanism (e.g. machine body parts) in case somebody might read my previous comment in the future.

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#154
post #131
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using gene drives to eliminate the few insect species that cause most of the harm to agriculture, will allow to drastically reduce the amount of pesticide we have to use now.

A myopic solution. We have no idea what role these problematic insects and weeds play in the grand scheme of things. Killing them is one thing. Elimination of species is a totally different game.

I agree. We pretend we know what we are doing, but we have no clue. It really sucks that insects eat our crops, but insects need to eat something, or they die. If they die, then whatever eats them will also die. No matter how you slice it, humans need to consume every ounce of available resources to fuel not only just our population growth, but our economic growth too. We do this by vast ecosystem destruction, replacing complex food webs with our own industrialized agriculture and production needs. Whether we use chemical pesticides or turn their homes asunder and starve them to death, or "snipe" them to death with gene drive fantasies, the result is the same: we're eliminating everything that does not participate in the cartoon food web of our own creation. This will not end well.

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#155

Honestly, I think it’s too late. It’s not too late technically, we could make changes now that would save us. But it’s far too late politically because people are stubbornly doubling down on the behaviors that are killing us.

There was never any time. We're programmed like bacteria to expand and fill the available resources until either our consumption or our waste products kill us off. The only question was the speed and ugliness of it all. After agriculture, without population control, this whole shit became inevitable. Science? Education? Democracy? Capitalism? All just ingredients into making this global society capable of mass digestion. Chewing up the Earth and shitting it out.

http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199539...

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#156
post #153
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being downvoted. I too voted this post of yours down, let me explain why; sheer hubris. > Besides, humans will never die out because of lack of "resources". We are in grave danger of dying out; because of lack resources and because of our mind-boggling stupidity, sheer arrogance and our inability to deal with our tribal instincts. You might (or not) have noticed that humans don't exist outside of the ecologica…

Thanks for the clarification. I guess you did not downvote me. As always, reasonable interesting people do not downvote so easily. > We are in grave danger of dying out; I do not think so and there is no reason at all to think so. Again: https://xkcd.com/ Again: I welcome a reduction of farm animals by 50% or 75%. > because of lack resources What resources of and on Earth are scarce in your opinion ? Depending on ski…

The problem is not of a technical nature, but of a political/social one.

> Depending on skills and technology, they are not scarce for a world population of 10 billion humans or they are scarce with a world population of 1 human.

This is very true. If organized properly we could very easily feed the 7.7 billion people that live on earth today. We could easily feed the 11 billion people that are expected to exist in about 50 years or so on earth. I do not doubt that the technological hurdles are gigantic, but the could be overcome.

Alas, I don't see that happening. Not because of the technological difficulty, but because of human stupidity or shortsightedness, our tribal instincts and the tendency towards reckless acquisition of resources that allowed our ancestors to become the dominant species on this planet in the first place.

You see, the problem is not our abilities to change the environment. The problem is our inability to change ourselves.

/If/ we all went vegan, /if/ we stopped needles, wasteful wars, /if/ we stopped consuming more than we need, /if/ ...

... then we could make it. But we don't change our behavior. We are still greedy little apes that are driven to resource acquisition to improve our social status in order to have higher reproductive success. We are reproduction machines, nothing that is changed by a few decades of wealth in some parts on earth.

It is this inability to overcome our biological imperatives that will doom us, because they prevent us from recognizing the foreigner as our sibling. And so we compete for resources, even though we've already so many resources that we die from over saturation.

So, unless all the peoples around the world start working together very soon to combat climate change, mitigate species and biomass loss, reduce the consumption of resources to a degree our planet can actually provide, I don't see how the human species will be able to survive.

It's not that we couldn't do it. It's that we're not willing to pay the cost in the /now/ to be able to survive in the /future/.

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont have fixes, I don't know where that idea crossed your mind. I see this as the likely path forward. It is not a fix, it is essentially the car careening off the cliff and people the survivors picking up and moving on. Could you let me know what was confusing in my text? I'll fix it up.

> Instead the highest probable path I see is a husk of a planet and us figuring out a way to reintroduce life after terraforming is complete. Terraforming is fantasy. Reintroducing life is a process that takes eons and is on the scale of the Gods, not of us mortals. We have a functioning planet with a well developed eco-system, we do not have a back-up and we do not have the abilities you ascribe to us. We would not…

   We have a functioning planet with a well developed eco-system, we do not have a back-up 
What is so hard for people to grasp about this concept? We have an incredible thing here, it would be impossible to engineer something like it in its vast complexity. Why would you not try to maintain this complex machinery and avoid throwing it out of kilter?

It's like watching parrots trying to run a fusion reactor.

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#158
post #156
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the clarification. I guess you did not downvote me. As always, reasonable interesting people do not downvote so easily. > We are in grave danger of dying out; I do not think so and there is no reason at all to think so. Again: https://xkcd.com/ Again: I welcome a reduction of farm animals by 50% or 75%. > because of lack resources What resources of and on Earth are scarce in your opinion ? Depending on ski…

The problem is not of a technical nature, but of a political/social one. > Depending on skills and technology, they are not scarce for a world population of 10 billion humans or they are scarce with a world population of 1 human. This is very true. If organized properly we could very easily feed the 7.7 billion people that live on earth today. We could easily feed the 11 billion people that are expected to exist in a…

First: I had missed the part of your previous reply where you wrote that you too had downvoted my comment because of "my hubris". Unfortunately I read and replied too quickly because I had to leave. Now it is too late to correct my reply.

Second: Fortunately only few people need to introduce or enforce change to make big changes for all. Modern societies would have never happened if change was not imposed by a few on all.

Unfortunately climate change is a bad problem because it is also a political problem because appropriate technology might not be available and imposed soon enough. Politics are determined by the stupid ignorant democratic majority. Even in dictatorships like China because a dictatorship must be tolerated by the democratic majority.

Fortunately, the stupid ignorant democratic majority could die and leave the surviving elite (not a money based elite of billionaires) with a better society. Natural evolution.

IMO, relatively few humans will die because of climate change but many more other species will die out.

https://theconversation.com/capitalism-is-killing-the-worlds...

> One tweet, posted in response to the WWF publication, retorted that “we are a virus with shoes”, an attitude that hints at growing public apathy.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/google-deepmind-founder...

> "Either we need an exponential improvement in human behavior — less selfishness, less short-termism, more collaboration, more generosity — or we need an exponential improvement in technology."

> "If you look at current geopolitics, I don't think we're going to be getting an exponential improvement in human behavior any time soon."

> "That's why we need a quantum leap in technology like AI."

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure I agree with your insistence on using the word rational. What is rational depends entirely on the perspective of the agent observing and is not a useful assumption, in my opinion. I want to touch on what you said about lobbies and give you my take on it. The characteristics of successful lobbies have three key properties. Within any dispute/issue the most important quality that determines influence of a…

Great points on lobbying. I believe there’s an economics paper on the effects of lobbying out there, so it might be of interest to you. Sadly I don’t know it’s name :/. By the way, If the issue is with my tone or perceived attitude, please note that this is my question- what precisely is the path to success? I don’t get the issue with the term rational, I mean it in the same way you define it. Locally solutions may n…

Neither your tone or attitude were an issue. I just wanted to note that the idea that there is absolutely no way out of this mess is too negative a view, in my opinion. Until we reach the point of no return, people need to keep engaging in discourse.

The path to success is simply education. It is not a sexy suggestion by any means, but I would point to how successful bad education is at stopping progress as evidence that it is the determinant factor. It is not a quick or a guaranteed solution. But by staying informed and engaging in conversation with people, this can have a knock-on effects on others. Further, key moments in contemporary human history show that shifts can occur seemingly out of nowhere. Will it be enough? Who knows? Realistically, this is our only play left and to squander it to apathy is not acceptable.

Re: rational. I guess this becomes a semantic issue, which means it is a non-issue to begin with as we are in agreement. I personally just feel that the word doesn't add much to the discussion as it is implicitly understood that economic actors will be driven to certain decisions by their own self-serving motivations. Using the word rational, while I agree that if we were to take your definition would be absolutely correct, connotes the notion that they are acting in absolute self interest, which is not the case in this example as that would mean individual actors would find a way to cooperate given that the existence of humanity is at stake. So, despite the fact that there is nothing wrong with the word, I avoid using it as I find it to be quite confusing.

My opinion on the matter probably reflects quite well on why I switched out of an economics degree :)

Re: Stop biodiversity loss or we could face our own extinction, warns UN

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called a "rethorical question". You gave the example of safety. It's as if I asked you "who decides what safety is?" and you post a link to some standards body. It's missing the point. It's not untrue to say there is no clearly defined meaning of "safety", just like there is no clearly defined meaning of "organic farming". The fact that there are standards bodies or certifications doesn't change that. The other…

> It's called a "rethorical question". No, rhetorical questions have expected answers. You simply rejected answers which you did not expect and then declared your own questions "not to be answered". >It's not untrue ((its true)) to say there is no clearly defined meaning of "safety" Agreed (see - rhetorical). There is not one clear definition of safety, there are many for different contexts and in different jurisdict…

> No, rhetorical questions have expected answers.

Not necessarily, but either way the answer is not the point.

> You simply rejected answers which you did not expect and then declared your own questions "not to be answered".

Okay Dr. Mind Reader. Do you believe I didn't expect that someone could google who does organic certifications and give me links to that? Do you believe I have never heard of such a thing as organic certification, even after multiple people have pointed it out to me right here?

Once again, I don't actually expect you to answer these question. The point of the questions is to make you think. You could answer them, but you would be missing the point.

> Your idea that organic farming should be atomically definable, doesn't make nonsense bullshit out of organic agriculture and labeling - it has made nonsense of your understanding of organic agriculture.

I didn't say it should be and indeed it doesn't. I really just mentioned it, you don't even seem to disagree that it doesn't have a clearly defined meaning, so what is your problem?

Anyway, what actually makes organic farming bullshit is the fact that it's based on bullshit theories. It has no basis in science. It comes out of nonsense beliefs, like Antroposophy. What makes it marketing bullshit is the fact that "organic" is used as a label of quality, even though the practice is based on bullshit theories, just like Homeopathy, which also has certifications. The farmers following these inefficient practices often do it only for the marketing effect. I don't even see you contest that at all, so I must conclude that you actually agree with me on this. Glad we're on the same page!

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