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Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

reuters.com

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Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#61

Post by shaklee3 »

staticfloat wrote: post #45
shaklee3 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't compare everything he's doing in the same bucket. Even if starlink were to succeed technically, it's not clear how they'd pay for the ground system. The satellite is the only piece talked about, but the ground system is betting on technology to take a massive cut off what it costs currently. It's more likely to will only be sold to enterprise/business customers, and not Joe schmo in rural Kansas. SpaceX…

In my antenna design course in graduate school, our Professor had insider information about the specifications the Starlink people were targeting for their mobile ground stations. He gave designing a similar antenna system as one of the final projects for the course. The exact numbers aren't important (nor are they really a tight secret; if you are well-versed in antenna design I imagine you could spend 10 minutes an…

Are you saying that your class came up with an antenna design that's about 100x cheaper than anything else out there today for leo satellites, and you didn't patent, nor start a company with it? Something is fishy about your story.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#62

Post by shaklee3 »

nickik wrote: post #56
walrus01 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I am also highly skeptical of what the CPE cost will be. Starlink has been over hyped in the non-satellite-industry technology press as if it will be a panacea for residential, rural internet access and for small business. But I'm thinking the rooftop terminal cost might be more like $3000-5000 of hardware, not totally outside the realm of possibility to recoup the cost for on 36 month contracts, but not somethin…

> $3000-5000 of hardware How do you get to that? The will mass produce these themselves seems highly unlikely that they would be so expensive.

If it is cost-effective for SpaceX with 0 customers so far, do you think DirecTV, dish, etc, with millions of subscribers for more than a decade wouldn't do it? I would be good money they've spent their fair share of r&d on this, and the good ol ~70cm parabolic dish wins out. And they don't even have to solve the problem of the satellites moving.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#63

Post by shaklee3 »

nickik wrote: post #52
shaklee3 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even for people in this industry that follow the news, you're right. I see hardly anything about it. However, there are a few really good analysts on Twitter that talk about it, and the consensus seems to be that starlink is in trouble. Between taking debt and the questionable status of the satellites that were launched, it seems it needs to be written about more.

Well, making debt is not a problem. Its inevitable. We are talking about a new mass production facility for satellites. I have also read many people that SpaceX tech is ahead of everybody else in a number of areas. Not to mention that they can launch way cheaper then everybody else. There were claims that they had propulsion problems and that might be true but we don't really know.

Where did you read that? The article specifically stated he wants less complicated satellites, and most of their technology is not in-house. SpaceX isn't making space-grade rf equipment with 300 people.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#64

Post by ortusdux »

nemo44x wrote: post #12

I'm amazed how little coverage Starlink, OneWeb, etc get. It's the next revolution and the most important tech since the smart phone. Think about the great firewall of China. It's dead after this. Having a cell provider and home internet provider. Gone. Poor bandwidth anywhere on Earth - a thing of the past. This is important and huge. Buy rural property that is undeveloped. In 10 years time you'll be able to power i…

I've thought about the satellite internet & China firewall interaction a bit and I feel that ultimately, musk owning starlink and tesla will probably mean that he will have to play ball with the Chinese government. Tesla sold 2 billion worth of cars in 2017 in China. A handful of tesla features were purportedly included just to woo the Chinese market, namely the overkill air-filter.

As for buying rural land, I couldn't agree more. Looking towards the future, I do think that we will need to greatly increase the quality of our septic systems. Currently in my county, if your soil does not drain quickly, you need a UV sterilizing bed, which puts the cost at a new system around 20-30k.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#65

Post by walrus01 »

shaklee3 wrote: post #62
nickik wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $3000-5000 of hardware How do you get to that? The will mass produce these themselves seems highly unlikely that they would be so expensive.

If it is cost-effective for SpaceX with 0 customers so far, do you think DirecTV, dish, etc, with millions of subscribers for more than a decade wouldn't do it? I would be good money they've spent their fair share of r&d on this, and the good ol ~70cm parabolic dish wins out. And they don't even have to solve the problem of the satellites moving.

DirecTV and others' Rx only geostationary market is 50x larger than small two way vsat, because most of the USA doesn't need vsat service. They're all based on standard cheap geostationary rx only tech. A DirecTV dish and feed + lnb are super simple and cheap to manufacture.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#66

Post by dmix »

burfog wrote: post #14
nemo44x wrote: post #12

I'm amazed how little coverage Starlink, OneWeb, etc get. It's the next revolution and the most important tech since the smart phone. Think about the great firewall of China. It's dead after this. Having a cell provider and home internet provider. Gone. Poor bandwidth anywhere on Earth - a thing of the past. This is important and huge. Buy rural property that is undeveloped. In 10 years time you'll be able to power i…

Iridium didn't escape national regulations. Why would this? If this system is to be operable in China, an agreement must be reached. That might mean a firewall for all people in China, all Chinese citizens everywhere, or both. Operating without permission from China would generate a complaint to the USA. The USA is obligated to enforce international RF restrictions on satellites operated by US companies.

Unless it's broadcast for free or with some cryptocurrency scheme... I'd expect the only challenge will be collecting money from people. The government should be able to interfere with that. Otherwise I don't really see what they could do otherwise to stop it.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#67

Post by dmix »

restalis wrote: post #60
Animats wrote: post #43

How'd that approach of firing the people who said it wasn't going to happen that fast work out at Tesla?

This is the context in which companies end up with slick players who's primary skill is to reframe the metrics and sell the idea of progress regardless of what's going on in reality.

That's a bit presumptive. This assumes that the executives don't ask any hard questions and believe everything the managers tell them without ever really digging into the problems. Or that the hiring/promotion process is broken enough to let people who game the system slip through.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#69

Post by nemo44x »

bluejekyll wrote: post #15
nemo44x wrote: post #12

I'm amazed how little coverage Starlink, OneWeb, etc get. It's the next revolution and the most important tech since the smart phone. Think about the great firewall of China. It's dead after this. Having a cell provider and home internet provider. Gone. Poor bandwidth anywhere on Earth - a thing of the past. This is important and huge. Buy rural property that is undeveloped. In 10 years time you'll be able to power i…

That’s a beautiful vision of the future. But I’m pretty sure convincing my family to go live without human contact, might be difficult. Some people can be alone, but most of us actually enjoy the company of friends and family.

No doubt. I just believe that interest in rural living will explode in certain areas that are beautiful. And not even that rural necessarily.

The reason I think it becomes more popular is that people won't feel so remote any longer with modern conveniences and communications. The big no-no for many people today who choose city or suburban life is that they can't easily communicate with the rest of the world, don't have easy access to consumer products and certainly don't have modern things we take for granted. This changes very soon I think.

So it's not even that most or a majority of people would do this but I think there's a lot of people relatively speaking that would choose this if they had these modern accommodations which are simply impossible right now.

Re: Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources

#70

Post by nemo44x »

murukesh_s wrote: post #40
nemo44x wrote: post #12

I'm amazed how little coverage Starlink, OneWeb, etc get. It's the next revolution and the most important tech since the smart phone. Think about the great firewall of China. It's dead after this. Having a cell provider and home internet provider. Gone. Poor bandwidth anywhere on Earth - a thing of the past. This is important and huge. Buy rural property that is undeveloped. In 10 years time you'll be able to power i…

> Buy rural property that is undeveloped Wish it was that simple. Maybe when there is a big enough community (then it would get expensive isn't it). I once wished for that but after getting married the priorities change 1) kids schooling 2) ours and kids social life 3) medical emergencies 4) window shopping and cheese burgers dammit :) I think we the average folks are enslaved

I believe there will be much larger communities than there is today. It won't be a majority or even a large minority but significant over what it is today. Hence the buy the property today for 10-20 years out.

Certainly not for everyone in every possible situation but there's a lot of people that would choose today if they didn't have to give up communications, electricity and other modern conveniences.

We won't see a flight like we did to the suburbs but I do think we'll see a renewed interest in rural living with all the modern tools of urban and suburban life. When "things" are virtual and physical things are easily shipped, it becomes real as disillusioned people try and reconnect with something more real - but not too real and rugged. ;)

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