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‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

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Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#31

Post by crimsonalucard »

ArchTypical wrote: post #25
crimsonalucard wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have knowledge of probability. The probability of the interstellar object being a light sail is equal to the probability of the flying spaghetti monster existing. So in other words, the probability is not Zero. Meaning it is very much worth considering and this article is legit.

We have knowledge of probability. The probability of the interstellar object being a light sail is equal to the probability of the characteristics matching a known light sail. That's not zero, since it's lining up. It's low enough that it's discountable by many people, to be sure, but not zero.

Read my post. I literally said it's not zero.

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#32

Post by dboreham »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #9
olivermarks wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always amazes me how people won't acknowledge there is plenty of things we humans don't know. I didn't think this was clickbait, it's just some interesting ideas based on our limited knowledge of something, nothing pretentious or over reaching IMO

We have knowledge of probability. The probability of the interstellar object being a light sail is equal to the probability of the flying spaghetti monster existing. So in other words, the probability is not Zero. Meaning it is very much worth considering and this article is legit.

Actually it's equal to the probability of a Sperm Whale being spontaneously generated above a planet. Or a bowl of Petunias..

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#33

Post by howard941 »

Zelphyr wrote: post #30
BillSaysThis wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Morgan Freeman owns (owned?) the rights and has been trying to make it since the late '80s: https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/morgan_freeman_insists_re

He wants to make it into a movie though. I hope he is considering a high-level TV series a la Game of Thrones. I feel like there are a lot of nuances that would get lost if made as a movie or series of movies.

A series that lasted more than one season? Brilliant!

Devil's advocate would raise the example of Dune perhaps, with a fairly decent IMO SyFy network TV miniseries, a lot more nuanced than the film and far more from the novel but didn't have the staying power of either of the two film versions. (Not that any of the film versions or the miniseries seems to be broadly loved)

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#34

Post by abecedarius »

Tossrock wrote: post #18

Given Oumuamua's well documented non-gravitational acceleration, what was the cause? That's the key question this article – and the paper it cites – are investigating. Comet-like off-gassing has been mostly ruled out due to the lack of observed dust or gas around the object, as well as lack of effect on spin. The paper suggests that a highly reflective 0.3mm-thick film 20m in diameter could be consistent with the obs…

It’s a fascinating mystery, but I gotta say that’d make a crappy lightsail, considering that even at our current tech level we could make a much lighter one if we could manufacture it in space. (The experiments that have flown were all constrained to survive launch and unfolding.)

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#36

Post by jacobush »

abecedarius wrote: post #34
Tossrock wrote: post #18

Given Oumuamua's well documented non-gravitational acceleration, what was the cause? That's the key question this article – and the paper it cites – are investigating. Comet-like off-gassing has been mostly ruled out due to the lack of observed dust or gas around the object, as well as lack of effect on spin. The paper suggests that a highly reflective 0.3mm-thick film 20m in diameter could be consistent with the obs…

It’s a fascinating mystery, but I gotta say that’d make a crappy lightsail, considering that even at our current tech level we could make a much lighter one if we could manufacture it in space. (The experiments that have flown were all constrained to survive launch and unfolding.)

Or was it a lighter sail, still carrying a payload?!

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#37

Post by ElBarto »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #9
olivermarks wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always amazes me how people won't acknowledge there is plenty of things we humans don't know. I didn't think this was clickbait, it's just some interesting ideas based on our limited knowledge of something, nothing pretentious or over reaching IMO

We have knowledge of probability. The probability of the interstellar object being a light sail is equal to the probability of the flying spaghetti monster existing. So in other words, the probability is not Zero. Meaning it is very much worth considering and this article is legit.

I would say that it's near impossible to assign a probability since this is the very first extra-solar object ever detected.

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#38

Post by thaumaturgy »

olivermarks wrote: post #5
MR4D wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know - did you ask them? (the aliens)? ;)

Always amazes me how people won't acknowledge there is plenty of things we humans don't know. I didn't think this was clickbait, it's just some interesting ideas based on our limited knowledge of something, nothing pretentious or over reaching IMO

But that's not what happens: proposed alien technology always approximately tracks human technological development.

I'm having trouble finding it at the moment, but somewhere out there is a pretty good article that points out that even though more people are now carrying cameras than ever before, UFO sightings have basically fallen off a cliff. They rose with the advent of jet aircraft and the space age, and then fell away in the era of drones. (The ones that I found in search results weren't the one I was thinking of.)

"Lightsail" is being floated as a possible explanation for this because we've recently imagined that technology. A few decades earlier, and nobody would imagine it as an explanation; a few decades later, and we'll have some other favorite new possible explanation that we can't imagine now.

The article wasn't terrible, though.

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#39

Post by d_burfoot »

Paging Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, et al: the next time one of these objects appears, we should try to capture it somehow, or at least divert its trajectory enough that it stays in the solar system and we can study it further. Nabbing one of these things would be a spectacular achievement, comparable to the moon landings, and would likely be of significant scientific value.

Re: ‘Oumuamua, Thin Films and Lightsails

#40

Post by stephengillie »

d_burfoot wrote: post #39

Paging Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, et al: the next time one of these objects appears, we should try to capture it somehow, or at least divert its trajectory enough that it stays in the solar system and we can study it further. Nabbing one of these things would be a spectacular achievement, comparable to the moon landings, and would likely be of significant scientific value.

Musk missed, and his car is headed for the asteroid belt instead of Mars.
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