Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assuming that life expectancy will remain the same and that the number of children will also not change Hans Rosling predicted our world population never will exceed 11 billion people. He was a very passionate and entertaining public speaker. https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation Carrying capacity is estimated at 7.7 billion. And I have seen that Hans Roslings predictions have been revised upwards. Doesn't look good either way.
Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
141–150 of 380 posts
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#142Human Population has more than doubled in the same timespan (from 3.7 billion to 7.7 billion today). This is not sustainable. We only have one small planet to live on, and we are destroying it. We are overfishing the oceans, cutting down entire forests to make way for pastures, warming up the planet and acidifying the plastic-filled ocean. Even insect populations are plummeting. The consequences of this will not be f…
This is a longstanding concern going back to at least the 70s [1]. The argument is essentially twofold:
1. Population growth will continue at or near present rates indefinitely; and
2. We will exceed population N where N is the number of people the planet can support.
For (1) the rate of growth has slowed and is projected to continue slowing over the next century [2] such that many of these estimates have been way off.
For (2), we have a pretty narrow-minded view of how many people this planet can actually support but with sufficient automation hydroponic yield depending on crop can be 10x+ per unit of land area (eg [3]). Automation here is important for both constructing greenhouses and maintaining the crop. This could well increase food capacity to 50-100B people depending on diet, possibly much higher.
What's more of a factor are resources and in particular energy costs. Commercial fusion power with deuterium would solve a whole bunch of problems at once (eg if the cost is below hydrocarbon based fuels then you can extract CO2 from the atmosphere and turn it into fuel, which also largely solves your greenhouse gas problem too). If we ever figure out commercial fusion based on normal hydrogen well that's basically unlimited energy.
Fusion isn't a requirement though. Solar gets ever cheaper. At some point it will become economic to put solar collectors in orbit and I've seen estimates for the yield of this to be about 7x the energy production of the same panel on the ground since there's essentially no night and there's definitely no weather.
Don't get me wrong: people are screwing up the planet and a lot of the larger animals seem doomed but that's more an issue of human vanity (eg wanting rhino horns, ivory, fish bladders and the like) rather than being driven by any actual need.
Deforestation is an issue but more-so in the developing world and more of an issue for ecosystems rather than, say, the atmosphere (IIRC ~80% of the CO2 is produced by the oceans). Overfishing too is a problem but mainly for us because at some point there just won't be any fish to eat.
People like to make alarmist predictions. In some cases I'm sure they truly believe them. This to me is largely a folly of youth as experience teaches you the poor track record of such prognostications. In other cases I suspect people are trying to prompt action from the complacent. The problem with this is that alarmist rhetoric about the environment tends to turn a lot of people off. And a history of bad predictions doesn't help your cause (whatever that cause is).
People do and will continue to make short-term decisions based largely on self-interest. That's just human nature. In a lot of cases its based on need rather than want. It's hard to tell a poor family in a developing country not to chop down the forest when the alternative is not heating their homes (with the wood) and/or not feeding their families (with the farmland created) In others, it's not.
But the notion that this planet can only support 5, 7 or 10 or 15B people is patently false.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
Human behavior is vastly more impactful on the planet than human numerosity. We are not feeling the consequences of simply people - it is our gross behavior. impact = people * behavior To make people reduction the target in this situation would be systematically misanthropic. Behavior can improve by orders of magnitude and even reverse polarity amicably and rapidly, through culture, inspiration, technological potenti…
I think the problem with this is plausibility. I have much more faith in humanity culling itself, by whatever misanthropic means, than behaving "amicably and rapidly." The possible solution might not be the pleasant one.
Compare the US of today with that of 50 - 100 years ago. The tree cover is almost back to pre-contact levels, lakes & rivers are potable, smog doesn't kill 10's of thousands of people per year, et cetera.
IOW, local environmental problems have been solved. And we know how to solve them elsewhere in the world: economic growth. Once people have their basic needs secure, they start caring about this stuff. Internalize the externalities and let the market sort it out.
The challenge is global problems; climate change is a fairly classic tragedy of the commons. The solution here is similar: internalize the externalities and let the market sort it out. A global carbon tax, for example.
We used to be able to do this stuff. We banned CFC's world-wide, for example.
Our track record in culling is much worse. Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot only managed to kill about 1% of the population, and the instability they created actually increased birth rates. Mao had an impact with the one child policy, but...
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the problem with this is plausibility. I have much more faith in humanity culling itself, by whatever misanthropic means, than behaving "amicably and rapidly." The possible solution might not be the pleasant one.
Basically stop eating beef and using internal-combustion cars, and the situation is vastly improved. Not impossible. A bunch of tax law changes would do it. And that's a lot more passable than killing a bunch of people.
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the problem with this is plausibility. I have much more faith in humanity culling itself, by whatever misanthropic means, than behaving "amicably and rapidly." The possible solution might not be the pleasant one.
Basically stop eating beef and using internal-combustion cars, and the situation is vastly improved. Not impossible. A bunch of tax law changes would do it. And that's a lot more passable than killing a bunch of people.
For one, beef's not that much of a problem: https://theconversation.com/yes-eating-meat-affects-the-envi...
But second, all kinds of systems we have have been premised on economic growth year after year. When we hit some harder limits, we'll hit them hard.
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#146Human Population has more than doubled in the same timespan (from 3.7 billion to 7.7 billion today). This is not sustainable. We only have one small planet to live on, and we are destroying it. We are overfishing the oceans, cutting down entire forests to make way for pastures, warming up the planet and acidifying the plastic-filled ocean. Even insect populations are plummeting. The consequences of this will not be f…
Meanwhile, in the corrupt 3rd World...
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, war is good for the war racket, but generally not good for trade in the vast majority of other goods.
Globalization is in full swing drastically more than it was during large-scale wartime. Hard to imagine a world war happening in that context
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#148Some companies are willing to harm humans and the environment for profit. I am active against a gas processing project in Israel, planned to be built near residents. Thousands of people joined the battle to protect their water and air against the blind tycoon greed. Government hands are tied by threats and bribe. Press are under incredible pressure to keep silent about the protests. We demand building the rigs 120km…
This is just pure NIMBY-ism. You should be ashamed. Even the Green groups in Israel support the current solution. Building the gas infrafracture on-shore would have expanded jobs and the industrial base. Instead this was moved off-shore 20-km. Now you are fighting even this. This is just richer/educated/organized people acting in the most selfish way possible. Its disgusting. Its no wonder Israel is the country with…
No-one seemed to notice the irony.
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'm afraid the problem will fix itself soon enough. WW3 could be around the corner according to the people behind the Doomsday Clock[...] I wouldn't call WW3 a fix (short term anyway). Even a small nuclear exchange would have devastating ecological consequences [0] [0] "Radioactive fallout from these weapons’ debris clouds would reach the stratosphere, where it would travel worldwide, potentially contaminating crop…
This has been tested and disproven by the very large nuclear exchanges that have already taken place: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=856fWEltiXo
Re: Humanity has wiped out 60% of animals since 1970, major report finds
#150Human population skyrocketing, animal population crashing, not a surprise. Even not taking into account pollution and exploitation of natural resources, it's a competition for space.
There's a lot of space to go around though, most of it undeveloped for e.g. agriculture, and a lot of developed space is under-utilized due to focusing on livestock.
Not really. There is a finite amount of arable rich land which can support life. A lot of "space" is frozen or desertified wasteland.
> most of it undeveloped for e.g. agriculture
Agriculture is the most destructive human enterprise. Most of the animals ( insects and rodents ) that are killed are due to agriculture. You have to kill all the animals in the land to create a farm. Then you have to constantly spray insecticide and herbicides to keep animals and weeds off the farm.
> and a lot of developed space is under-utilized due to focusing on livestock.
Raising livestock is far less destructive than agriculture. Primarily predators like coyotes, wolves and bears are victims of raising livestock.