Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation • Hacker News Board

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#221

Post by Certhas » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 7:57 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #209

Certhas wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units" To first approximation none of these were Teslas. EVs are being mass produced. Mass producing a car might be difficult. But the others manufacturers are already doing that. They need to figure out how to mass produce electronic drive trains (vastly simpler than what they are building now) and batteries. Batterys are more complex,…

> Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units Those are gasoline electric hybrids, no more impressive than a Prius technologically from a decade ago that has been brought down in price. China is not mass producing EVs, which is why it's 777,000 "new energy vehicles." That phrasing is the give-away. Otherwise we could just pretend the Prius was the first mass produced EV, when…

You are right that this figure includes hybrids (PHEV), but the vast majority, 652.000, are pure battery (BEV):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China#/...

I did check that before but copy pasted the wrong line.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#222

Post by chillacy » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:03 PM UTC

travisjungroth wrote: post #180

joezydeco wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they don't. But you can't declare dependence on an ecosystem, simultaneously declare that the ecosystem is stupid, then have people take you seriously.

You absolutely can. If everyone in a neighborhood tossed dollar bills on the street cause they didn't like carrying anything smaller than a five, it would make sense to both make a living picking them up and say "why the hell are they doing this?".

The funny thing is if you put forth such a good argument that it changed everyone’s perceptions of the value of old cars then market forces would drive that price up, possibly invalidating the argument in the first place. So... shhh, keep it a secret!

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#223

Post by Certhas » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:08 PM UTC

leesec wrote: post #136

Certhas wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced about the multi year advantage. Everyone else has EVs out. They are not pushing them, probably because they are reaping the profits on past ICE investments, but the next tech platforms under development for years now at VW/Mercedes/BMW are electric. VW is planning to get to 10 million EVs by 2022. I'd give credit to Musk and Tesla for bringing forward this point by several years, but it would be sil…

And how will you charge them for road trips, on Tesla's supercharging network? It takes time to build up the network.

The head start for charging in Europe is considerably less than in the US. Plus there are _many_ players building up charging networks all over Europe.

China seems to already have a charging network that does not include Tesla at all.

From a purely US point of view it might look like Tesla is the only game in town for the foreseeable future. In European cities I have seen more Car2go electric vehicles/charging stations than Teslas.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#224

Post by ericd » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:10 PM UTC

Angostura wrote: post #173

jklinger410 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreeing with both of you but want to chime in with some conspiracy theory stuff. The only way you beat Musk is by going somewhere that his idealism won't allow him to go, while still maintaining positive public opinion of yourself as his competitor. I am looking directly at the Oil and Big Auto companies when I say people have incentivized bloggers (aka "journalists") and paid online trolls to make him look like the…

> I am looking directly at the Oil and Big Auto companies when I say people have incentivized bloggers (aka "journalists") and paid online trolls to make him look like the bad guy They made him spout off about the Thailand-based diver being a paedophile? He bought this stuff on himself, you don't need a conspiracy to explain why the shine came off.

Who gives a shit, really? It’s the same sort of navel-gazing as caring about who is feuding with who in the celebrity world, amplified by a press that’s starving for new sources of clickbait. Yeah, he shouldn’t have done that, but in the final calculus, it’s incredibly insignificant compared to what he’s done and what he’s trying to do.

If you try to run two companies and sleep for 4-5 hours a night for years and take too much ambien, I can guarantee you that you’re going to have a bad stretch too. I think we can cut him some slack.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#225

Post by so_tired » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

InTheArena wrote: post #7

This seems like a good breakdown - but it's also that Tesla (like SpaceX) runs really really close to the edge every time they do a product launch. How many people doubted SpaceX until the Falcon 9 flew? How many until the Falcon 9 landed on land? How many until Falcon 9 Heavy launched? How many are still doubting until Falcon 9 completes it's first manned mission? How many doubted Tesla until the Roadster shipped? T…

> [.. tesla has .. ] 60% of world wide lithium battery capacity

This is completely untrue [1]. You are also making this claim in other comments. Lets root for Tesla, EVs and world peace, but stick to the facts.

[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/08/14/the-grow...

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#226

Post by beiller » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:45 PM UTC

madeuptempacct wrote: post #15

anoncoward111 wrote: post #3

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

"Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high." If someone makes $250,000+ a year, it's not unreasonable. "My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's less than $100 a month in ammortized costs." That's completely unrealistic. You have some sort of competitive advantag…

Here is an anecdote for you. I bought a 2009 pontiac g5 in 2010 for $10k cash used. The car had 30k km on it, and was still under warranty (100km drivetrain warranty). So why would people spend $50k? And how to justify such a high price, while at the same time saying they are simpler and require less maintenance. Yes I believe that is true, so shouldn't they be considerably cheaper to build?

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#227

Post by InTheArena » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 8:56 PM UTC

so_tired wrote: post #225

InTheArena wrote: post #7

This seems like a good breakdown - but it's also that Tesla (like SpaceX) runs really really close to the edge every time they do a product launch. How many people doubted SpaceX until the Falcon 9 flew? How many until the Falcon 9 landed on land? How many until Falcon 9 Heavy launched? How many are still doubting until Falcon 9 completes it's first manned mission? How many doubted Tesla until the Roadster shipped? T…

> [.. tesla has .. ] 60% of world wide lithium battery capacity This is completely untrue [1]. You are also making this claim in other comments. Lets root for Tesla, EVs and world peace, but stick to the facts. [1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/08/14/the-grow...

The source here was the Tesla call yesterday... I suspect they overstated it - meant more then half of world wide car batter capacity?

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#228

Post by rightbyte » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 9:09 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #129

PopeDotNinja wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't truly understand what a rust bucket was until I tried buying a used car in Northern Virginia (I had just moved from California). Everything below $2000 USD was a rust covered death trap that couldn't pass a vehicle inspection. I test drove a $1500 car and cut myself on the rust as I got into the vehicle. Another $1900 car was kind of low rust, but it couldn't pass the vehicle safety check. Snow & road salt i…

Yeah. It used to be a lot worse believe it or not. But, still, anything over about 10 years old in the Northeast and other snowy regions are pretty much at EOL. I made the mistake with a prior vehicle (which I bought used) of doing a couple fairly major repairs when it was about 12 years old and it ended up being just a cascading set of failures due to rust.

Uhm ... I drive a -98 Volvo V70, 300 000 km, in central Sweden. It's no way where near EOL and it's snow and salt on the roads. If I change the brakes it's good for maybe 2-8 years more before the gearbox might give up.

The secret is to to preemptive rust measures. Just paint it like you would on a boat and change rusty parts on the underbelly before the rust spreads to the car body.

Preemptive measures are cheap and not that much work. When it's too late though ... I wonder how much greater the average car life span would be if the drivers just took a oil dispenser every third month and oiled the parts.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#229

Post by nikofeyn » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 9:11 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #209

Certhas wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units" To first approximation none of these were Teslas. EVs are being mass produced. Mass producing a car might be difficult. But the others manufacturers are already doing that. They need to figure out how to mass produce electronic drive trains (vastly simpler than what they are building now) and batteries. Batterys are more complex,…

> Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units Those are gasoline electric hybrids, no more impressive than a Prius technologically from a decade ago that has been brought down in price. China is not mass producing EVs, which is why it's 777,000 "new energy vehicles." That phrasing is the give-away. Otherwise we could just pretend the Prius was the first mass produced EV, when…

yes they are. in a recent trip to china nearly all of my didi trips were in electric vehicles from two or three different manufacturers. all of these cars were nice but clearly affordable. and as the other commenter pointed out, china still sells more electric vehicles than anyone else in the world. china also has a high-end electric vehicle maker in nio.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#230

Post by leetcrew » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 9:18 PM UTC

anoncoward111 wrote: post #3

Serious question, and I'm not a Tesla hater either: Why does anyone spend $35,000 - $50,000 on a car? It just feels like a number that is at least 5x too high. A used car from a fairly reputable source can be had for between $3,000 - $6,000, depending on mileage and cosmetic appearance. My 2005 Ford Focus sedan was $3,000 and should last me about 3 years before I need to make a decision about major repairs, so that's…

it seems that people who buy cars fall into two groups.

the first group views a car as an appliance, and will generally buy the cheapest one that will get them where they need to go and haul their stuff around. you tend to see these people driving crossovers.

the second group actually enjoys driving, and will seek to get the nicest car that fits in their budget. the minimum viable car and the nicest car you can afford can be very different in cost.