Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

Post by ryanmarsh » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 4:30 PM UTC

InTheArena wrote: post #7

This seems like a good breakdown - but it's also that Tesla (like SpaceX) runs really really close to the edge every time they do a product launch. How many people doubted SpaceX until the Falcon 9 flew? How many until the Falcon 9 landed on land? How many until Falcon 9 Heavy launched? How many are still doubting until Falcon 9 completes it's first manned mission? How many doubted Tesla until the Roadster shipped? T…

Post by Angostura » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 4:30 PM UTC

jklinger410 wrote: post #153

randomsearch wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From one POV, Musk really has nothing to lose. Even if all his companies crash and burn, he has taken a lot of resources and spent them on things that matter: space exploration, combating global warming, etc No matter what happens, all that engineering talent will continue to exist. All that experience gained still exists. And some of the giant infrastructure that he’s built will inevitably be reused if his companies…

Agreeing with both of you but want to chime in with some conspiracy theory stuff. The only way you beat Musk is by going somewhere that his idealism won't allow him to go, while still maintaining positive public opinion of yourself as his competitor. I am looking directly at the Oil and Big Auto companies when I say people have incentivized bloggers (aka "journalists") and paid online trolls to make him look like the…

Post by madengr » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 4:34 PM UTC

notaki wrote: post #130

Certhas wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced about the multi year advantage. Everyone else has EVs out. They are not pushing them, probably because they are reaping the profits on past ICE investments, but the next tech platforms under development for years now at VW/Mercedes/BMW are electric. VW is planning to get to 10 million EVs by 2022. I'd give credit to Musk and Tesla for bringing forward this point by several years, but it would be sil…

But no one else is mass producing EV's. VW is just starting to talk about building a gigafactory. Everyone is doing a lot of talking, but they are all years behind Tesla. And even if they stop talking and start doing, they'll need to build a more compelling product than Tesla. That will be very very difficult. Tesla FTW.

Post by justtopost » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 4:44 PM UTC

paulddraper wrote: post #63

ams6110 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. You can buy a good, reliable, well maintained car for $3,000. Mileage is less important than maintenance history. The Focus is a particularly good choice IMO. They are reliable, pleasant to drive, and Ford made gazillions of them so you can get them repaired anywhere and parts are cheap. You can also buy a basket case for $3,000, so you do need to have a bit of an idea of what to look for (or what to avoi…

Please link to this good, reliable, well-maintained car for $3k or under, because (without a family/buddy deal) it does not exist.

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Oct 26, 2018, 4:48 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #155

calabin wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Responsible cash management and investor relations are not mutually exclusive with innovation. There is absolutely no reason that TSLA shouldn't have raised cash with a relatively inexpensive bond issuance or moderate share issuance in the lead-up to the large expenditures required to begin Model 3 production. As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price to account for the tremendous amoun…

> As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price TIL some of the wildest, most speculative short selling in history is "rightly discounting" a stock price. That's revisionist. I mean, yes, you're right that they could have operated more in line with traditional accounting. But that's not why their stock price was held incorrectly low.