Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth? • Hacker News Board

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#81

Post by JAlexoid » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:26 PM UTC

old-gregg wrote: post #47

The gains have been looted by the healthcare providers. It is not uncommon for health coverage to exceed $2k/mo for a typical family of 4, that's $24k/year. The median US household income is $59k, so the total comp is $83k/year. See the gains now? This absurd amount is not reflected in a paycheck and one may think "my job pays for it" but that is still your money.

Actually your contribution to the healthcare is reflected in the data that ic collected, as the data is from IRS.

So... While your employer may pony up 50% of the cost, you get stuck with the other half on your tax return.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#82

Post by crazygringo » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:26 PM UTC

chrismanfrank wrote: post #73

munificent wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for writing this comment so that I don't feel like a crazy person after reading this article. It came across to me as so obviously flawed that it's hard to even apply Hanlon's Razor to it. Not once does he mention of any correction for the obvious bias that people make different amounts at different points in their careers. Using his exact same process, you could also show that the average height of America…

From the article: "The study looks at people who were 35–40 in 1987 and then looks at how they were doing 20 years later, when they are 55–60. The median income of the people in the top 20% in 1987 ended up 5% lower twenty years later. The people in the middle 20% ended up with median income that was 27% higher. And if you started in the bottom 20%, your income doubled. If you were in the top 1% in 1987, 20 years lat…

In other words, regression to the mean. Of course the poorest people are more likely to gain in income -- when you start at the bottom, there's really only one direction you can go.

You can still have regression to the mean among individuals while society itself is becoming horrifyingly unequal.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#83

Post by refurb » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:27 PM UTC

TheBeardKing wrote: post #31

This bullshit article tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy by dismissing proportional median income gains between quintiles and instead argues that absolute income gains of individuals over time is enough evidence to suggest everything is actually great. This chart [1] seems to be the crux of their argument, as in - Surprise! Over 30 years poor people gained an average of almost $30k in income! I sure fucking…

I think you're missing the point of the article.

When you actually follow the same people, the poor see the greater increase in income than the most wealthy. You may poo-poo a $30K inflation-adjusted increase in pay, but that moves someone from the lower class to the middle class.

Isn't that the goal?

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#84

Post by Chris_Chambers » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:27 PM UTC

munificent wrote: post #63

TheBeardKing wrote: post #31

This bullshit article tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy by dismissing proportional median income gains between quintiles and instead argues that absolute income gains of individuals over time is enough evidence to suggest everything is actually great. This chart [1] seems to be the crux of their argument, as in - Surprise! Over 30 years poor people gained an average of almost $30k in income! I sure fucking…

Thank you for writing this comment so that I don't feel like a crazy person after reading this article. It came across to me as so obviously flawed that it's hard to even apply Hanlon's Razor to it. Not once does he mention of any correction for the obvious bias that people make different amounts at different points in their careers. Using his exact same process, you could also show that the average height of America…

The author of this article is a Jew.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#85

Post by kimmeld » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #49

This is an astoundingly bad comparison if it's missing the point I think it's missing. It's arguing that the average person makes more than their parents by comparing household income . I searched the article a few times for a few keywords trying to make sure I hadn't missed anything, but I see no mention of number of wage earners per household. All the rest, about "fringe benefits" and the conclusion that everything…

From past podcasts he doesn't see the problem with having two people working to get that gain while ignoring the individual stagnating/declining worker pay. That stance is not logical to me, but it seems to fit his view on the world.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#86

Post by peisistratos » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

If you look at that first report of increased family income, also in the referenced Pew report it says 59% of sons make as much or more then their fathers, which means 41% are doing worse. So 4 of every 10 sons does worse than his father in this time of economic growth.

Two more factors come into play. US working class stagnation started in the early 1970s and got going in the 1980s. The study starts in 1968, which means some of the growth pointed to for the children is actually what is kept from late 1960s and early 1970s growth, not now. If the study had started five years later, the results would look worse.

Also the politically influenced Boskin commission revised historical inflation estimates in the mid 1990s, also making things look rosier. If you believe, as I do, that inflation estimates were correct in 1996 and that Boskin was wrong, then things look bleaker in that light as well.

Although 4 in 10 sons doing worse than their fathers (from the Pew report he cites) is bleak enough.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#87

Post by jstanley » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:34 PM UTC

rst wrote: post #32

kazinator wrote: post #3

Adjusted for inflation, the US economy has more than doubled in real terms since 1975. How much of that growth has gone to the average person? According to many economists, the answer is close to zero. First of all, the population has increased from around 200M to 325M. The inflation-adjusted economic output would have to increase by that same factor just to say the same per capita .

And it has increased by well over the ratio; two is substantially greater than 325/200, which is 1.625. What's your point?

2 is less than 25% more than 1.625.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#88

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

rukittenme wrote: post #6

I'd like to add to this argument. If Ohio's steel industry grows by 500% who reaps the benefits? Me? The guy writing code in Portland, Oregon? No... its pretty clear that a specific subset of people receive the benefits. The people who own the steel mill. The people who receive employment from the steel mill. The governments which tax the steel mill. But not me. Economic growth isn't uniform. Its an uneven field that…

" The people who receive employment from the steel mill. "

I think a lot of people who have employment there don't feel like they are getting benefits. When I look at my company we just got an E-mail how great the company is doing but during my performance review I was told "sorry, no raises or promotions". So I don't feel like I am benefiting from the company doing well.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#89

Post by hopefulengineer » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

TheBeardKing wrote: post #31

This bullshit article tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy by dismissing proportional median income gains between quintiles and instead argues that absolute income gains of individuals over time is enough evidence to suggest everything is actually great. This chart [1] seems to be the crux of their argument, as in - Surprise! Over 30 years poor people gained an average of almost $30k in income! I sure fucking…

It's supply and demand 101, illegal immigration combined with offshoring lowers wages and increases profit margin for the wealthy. Low wage jobs are taken by illegal immigrants, forcing US citizens to take on debt to go to college, where wages are also lowered because there are now thousands of college grads desperate to pay off their debt that can't be eliminated through bankruptcy due to congress being lobbied. A wonderful scam. Same thing with big tech companies pushing for more H1B to push down engineering wages and lower standard of living. This stuff shouldn't even be left vs right, it should be common sense.

Here's bernie sanders talking about how open boarders is pushed by the koch brothers to give them cheap labor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf-k6qOfXz0

We're rapidly heading towards feudalism 2.0. You can already see it in the Bay Area(and essentially any major urban area) where only the wealthy can afford a home. The majority pay a large chunk of their income to their landlord

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#90

Post by moorhosj » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:38 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #34

TulliusCicero wrote: post #16

The whole thing he is explaining is just regression to the mean. Yes, if you take people who are currently rich and people who are currently poor, over time the poor will likely go up in income and the rich go down. Using this as a counterpoint to accusations of the rich taking all the gains is like pointing out that a wealthy duke could only pass his whole dukedom to one of his children, and the others would have to…

The whole thing he is explaining is just regression to the mean. The author directly addresses this further down in the article. Regression to the mean is a possible explanation of the numbers he cites, but it doesn't refute the main point he's making, which is that some numbers suggest poor people capture more of the gains from economic growth than is widely thought.

“Widely thought” based on what? This seems like the building of a straw man.