Live data from Hacker News

Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

medium.com

41–50 of 311 posts

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#41
On top of the studies within the article, there are other really interesting papers. Some time back I was searching information on the chiseling out of the middle class, and I found this paper [1]. And the paper does describe that chiseling out. In 1979 the middle class controlled 46% of all income, and the upper/rich classes controlled 30%. Today (as of 2014) the rich and upper class control 63% with the middle class left with 26%. There's even been a chiseling out of the middle class as a whole declining from 38.8% of society to 32% of society. That's where most media outlets leave it. It sounds grim.

But the eye opener is this. This is the change in the size of each economic group between 1979 and 2014 as a percent of the total population:

- Rich: 0.1% -> 1.8%

- Upper Middle Class: 12.9% -> 29.4%

- Middle Class: 38.8% -> 32%

- Lower Middle Class: 23.9% -> 17.1%

- Poor or Near-Poor: 24.3% -> 19.8%

Statistics like this are certainly subject to biased interpretation and 'massaging'. If one is curious about the source, wiki has a section on the political stance of the Urban Institute [2]. Though the paper itself is very transparent in their methodology and extremely readable. I found it all eye opening to the point that it literally changed my worldview. This change is only since 1979! We are doing something incredibly right from an economic point of view. I don't understand the media motivations in choosing to omit these crucial, and greatly encouraging, data when writing on this topic.

[1] - https://www.urban.org/research/publication/growing-size-and-...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Institute#Political_stan...

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#42
This reads like research sponsored by a tobacco company showing that cigarettes are actually not that harmful.

I like how it frames the economy as this independent entity that we just sort of observe and hope for the best. Oh our divining rod produced these arbitrary statistics so the glass is half full guys!

In reality, though, the forces of human nature driving the economy don't change. Since the dawn of the surplus, there have always been a handful of kings and many serfs, and there probably always will be.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#43

This bullshit article tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy by dismissing proportional median income gains between quintiles and instead argues that absolute income gains of individuals over time is enough evidence to suggest everything is actually great. This chart [1] seems to be the crux of their argument, as in - Surprise! Over 30 years poor people gained an average of almost $30k in income! I sure fucking…

Well... To be fair - people that use this inaccurate measure dig their own grave. It's not a good metric, by far.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#44
> And some studies include the elderly which lowers measured progress because the elderly are an increasing share of the population and they are less likely to be working full-time if at all

Should probably just burn them for fuel, right?

> And many of the most pessimistic studies about the fate of the American middle class ignore the fall in marriage and the increase in divorce since the 1970s and the effects that demographic change has had on the way we measure changes in household income

The right wing culture warrior says that if people got and stayed married they'd be better off. The left wing materialist says that if people were better off they'd be getting married more and staying together longer. Which is more likely: every young person got brain worms at the same time that made them want to not do monogamy/family things, or the stratum of society that has always tried to capture as much of its productivity as possible has made gains in its project?

As to the rest of it: I don't particularly care if the same exact individuals have effected a greater capture of the economic output of this country, I do care that as a whole the top Xtile captures a larger slice. That does, in fact, matter materially to me even though I'm imminently comfortable. I'll leave it to the real stats nerds to punch holes in the math.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#45
post #11

I'd like to add to this argument. If Ohio's steel industry grows by 500% who reaps the benefits? Me? The guy writing code in Portland, Oregon? No... its pretty clear that a specific subset of people receive the benefits. The people who own the steel mill. The people who receive employment from the steel mill. The governments which tax the steel mill. But not me. Economic growth isn't uniform. Its an uneven field that…

I think the thing that is at odds with this attitude is that more and more prevalently "The people who receive employment from the steel mill." don't actually benefit from 500% growth. Instead they might have 6 additional months of job security with little to no raises. And that job security isn't a favor it's because that's the amount of time those workers are needed to get through whatever contract and not any furt…

More common, every other year or so, they will get a 'raise' that management loves to promote, that doesn't cover the cost of living adjustments the last 2 years.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#46

The author Russ Roberts runs the EconTalk podcast and is a well respected economist/journalist/thinker in the field, definitely worth reading for a fair assessment. Here he presents a few studies that go against general economic consensus popularized mainly by Piketty in "Capital in the 21st century" and through papers/writing by Krugman, Saez, Zucman, Stiglitz, etc. that most of the economic gains in the past 100 ye…

He's a fellow at Stanford School of Economics and he's a typical academic...

Which is to say, that his articles must be taken independently. His opinions on other issues are not discussed, so it's easy to build a strawman about his other opinions.

That also means that we must point out the fact that this article is only a small subset of data, that really tells us only what the data was collected on.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#47
The gains have been looted by the healthcare providers. It is not uncommon for health coverage to exceed $2k/mo for a typical family of 4, that's $24k/year. The median US household income is $59k, so the total comp is $83k/year. See the gains now?

This absurd amount is not reflected in a paycheck and one may think "my job pays for it" but that is still your money.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet that compound earnings are the main contributor here. It's much easier to save more money because you're wealthy and have more money. Across generations this effect is massive.

That will certainly be compounded by the demise of the estate tax. That said it’s not like intergenerational wealth is a new thing, wouldn’t that be the case way before the 70s? It seems the trickle down economics approach taken since the 70s from both Democrats and Republicans hasn’t really helped anyone but the rich.

The same inter-generational wealth logic would apply pre-1970s.

I think that 1970 is used as a starting point because that's also when real wages started dropping relative to production output.

I'm don't think it's fair to blame US politics. I bet this is a universal phenomenon.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#49
This is an astoundingly bad comparison if it's missing the point I think it's missing. It's arguing that the average person makes more than their parents by comparing household income. I searched the article a few times for a few keywords trying to make sure I hadn't missed anything, but I see no mention of number of wage earners per household.

All the rest, about "fringe benefits" and the conclusion that everything's not perfect because we still have excessive occupational licensing and minimum wages is just garbage hand-waving.

edit: I re-read it, and the panel data that shows the same income gains per cohort is not clear on how the data was gathered, but the Pew and Brookings data is CLEARLY household data, NOT individual data.

edit2: the Splinter data also appears to be household-level: http://www.davidsplinter.com/Splinter-Mobility_and_Inequalit...

Splinter mentions "Some reasons for increased household-level income inequality include skill- biased technological change (Acemoglu, 2002), decreased marriage and employment rates (Larrimore, 2014), and the exclusion of employee benefits and government trans- fers from most income definitions (Burkhauser, Larrimore, and Simon, 2012; Auten and Splinter, 2018)."

So, he's discussing how decreased marriage rates might drive down household wages (increasing inequality, particularly among the poorer groups), but a quick command-F is not finding any mention of how the impact of these decreased marriage rates may be counterbalanced (and possibly/likely?) outweighed by increased total number of wage earners per household.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#50
The income divide increasing int he past few decades is due to globalization. This much is obvious.

Many huge American companies have done super well as we move to a global economy - tech is a great example. There's more money to be made when you can start selling more iPhones to India and the development costs stay the same.

Whether this new global revenue wealth goes workers vs corporate pockets depends on the supply of labor. Does Apple mostly want to employ Americans? If so, these rich global companies need to compete for a limited supply of American workers - our salaries rise. Tech workers in the USA make much more money than other countries - we have many successful companies here all wanting American tech labor.

On the flip side , not all American labor falls under this category. If companies don't care if the labor is domestic or outsourced or immigration is easy (flexible supply), then American workers don't see much gain from these global companies making more global money - the new wealth is split between top American executives and developing countries..

Most companies fall into the latter category - which is why we've seen the income divide grow, the average American worker's wage stagnate, and developing countries wages grow.

Post reply on HN