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Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

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Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#31
This bullshit article tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy by dismissing proportional median income gains between quintiles and instead argues that absolute income gains of individuals over time is enough evidence to suggest everything is actually great. This chart [1] seems to be the crux of their argument, as in - Surprise! Over 30 years poor people gained an average of almost $30k in income! I sure fucking hope someone who started at minimum wage in 1980 is making $30k more today.

And even though the median income of the top 1% went from $189,000 to $843,000 in that sime timeframe, that's not important because in our sample, the average income of those in the top QUINTILE actually FELL $7k. Guess you couldn't find any 1%ers for your study?

Bottom line - if the economy can't support a living wage for the working class, it's not doing all that great.

[1] https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*Z5rBoco1CtNVHYZdh...

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#32

Adjusted for inflation, the US economy has more than doubled in real terms since 1975. How much of that growth has gone to the average person? According to many economists, the answer is close to zero. First of all, the population has increased from around 200M to 325M. The inflation-adjusted economic output would have to increase by that same factor just to say the same per capita .

And it has increased by well over the ratio; two is substantially greater than 325/200, which is 1.625. What's your point?

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#33

I'd like to add to this argument. If Ohio's steel industry grows by 500% who reaps the benefits? Me? The guy writing code in Portland, Oregon? No... its pretty clear that a specific subset of people receive the benefits. The people who own the steel mill. The people who receive employment from the steel mill. The governments which tax the steel mill. But not me. Economic growth isn't uniform. Its an uneven field that…

Stuff like this annoys me. The workers in the steel mill aren't receiving the benefits of the 500% growth. it is largely going to the executives and not the workers.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#34

The whole thing he is explaining is just regression to the mean. Yes, if you take people who are currently rich and people who are currently poor, over time the poor will likely go up in income and the rich go down. Using this as a counterpoint to accusations of the rich taking all the gains is like pointing out that a wealthy duke could only pass his whole dukedom to one of his children, and the others would have to…

The whole thing he is explaining is just regression to the mean.

The author directly addresses this further down in the article. Regression to the mean is a possible explanation of the numbers he cites, but it doesn't refute the main point he's making, which is that some numbers suggest poor people capture more of the gains from economic growth than is widely thought.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#35

Tl;dr: Wealthy and poor cohorts are not necessarily stable over time, generational boundaries in particular seem to be a relatively strong predictor of change. However people who are now poor are just as poor as the poor of the 70s, while those who are now extremely wealthy are even more extremely wealthy than the rich of the 70s.

I bet that compound earnings are the main contributor here. It's much easier to save more money because you're wealthy and have more money. Across generations this effect is massive.

That will certainly be compounded by the demise of the estate tax. That said it’s not like intergenerational wealth is a new thing, wouldn’t that be the case way before the 70s?

It seems the trickle down economics approach taken since the 70s from both Democrats and Republicans hasn’t really helped anyone but the rich.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#36

"Some studies leave out important components of compensation such as fringe benefits which have become increasingly important in recent years." And why are those fringe benefits increasingly important, eh?

And what kind of fringe benefits are minimum wage earners pulling? I hear Starbucks gives health insurance, for example, anyone else?

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#37
The author Russ Roberts runs the EconTalk podcast and is a well respected economist/journalist/thinker in the field, definitely worth reading for a fair assessment.

Here he presents a few studies that go against general economic consensus popularized mainly by Piketty in "Capital in the 21st century" and through papers/writing by Krugman, Saez, Zucman, Stiglitz, etc. that most of the economic gains in the past 100 years have gone to a concentrated few owners of capital.

Roberts highlights a few studies that use panel data (same people tracked over time) instead of cross-section data (snapshots of different populations at different times) and show that 70% of children from low-income households generally earn more than their parents, and usually end up with about 2x more income (only 33% of high-income children earn more than their parents.)

Another study looks at people age 35-40 in 1987 and then how they did when they were 55-60 in 2007. Median income was down for the top 5%, middle quintile was up 27%, and bottom quintile median income rose 100%.

Basically - absolute mobility (how much people gain over time) is still decently healthy today in percentage terms in the US, but relative mobility (how easy it is to move between classes) is widening and the wealthy in 1980 still have a much higher income on average than the poor in 1980.

Also, the poor in 2014 were actually worse off than the poor in the 1980s which Roberts attributes to poor people reporting less income in 2014, that there could be more poor immigrants in 2014 with less education, and that 2014 could be an unrepresentative year.

Personally I don't buy Robert's "glass half full" argument, but I appreciate him bringing some panel data into the discussion to temper the prevailing economic narrative.

I think if he looked at studies that include wealth and net worth panel data, not just income, that account for assets such as homes, the results would be much much different.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#38

Tl;dr: Wealthy and poor cohorts are not necessarily stable over time, generational boundaries in particular seem to be a relatively strong predictor of change. However people who are now poor are just as poor as the poor of the 70s, while those who are now extremely wealthy are even more extremely wealthy than the rich of the 70s.

I bet that compound earnings are the main contributor here. It's much easier to save more money because you're wealthy and have more money. Across generations this effect is massive.

*EDIT: I think I misinterpreted your point, but I'm going to leave this because I think it's valid.

That probably contributes, however the reality is that most Americans (particularly below-average earners) are living paycheck to paycheck and therefore don't have opportunities to significantly contribute to savings. I suspect that the average American is far more affected by compound debt rather than compound savings.

Rather, I think that there are 2 main factors driving upward mobility of low-skill/replaceable/disposable workers: 1. Over time, some are able to break into industries where they can build a career instead of working dead-end minimum-wage jobs. 2. Many busted their asses so that their kids could get a good education. Their kids saw how hard their parents struggled and were motivated to pursue stable careers.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#39

I'd like to add to this argument. If Ohio's steel industry grows by 500% who reaps the benefits? Me? The guy writing code in Portland, Oregon? No... its pretty clear that a specific subset of people receive the benefits. The people who own the steel mill. The people who receive employment from the steel mill. The governments which tax the steel mill. But not me. Economic growth isn't uniform. Its an uneven field that…

>I don't know why anyone should feel entitled to economic growth if they didn't participate in it in any way.

Can we use this entitlement argument elsewhere? Would that be fair?

So, how would you feel if I restated this as:

>I don't know why anyone should feel entitled to economic benefits, if they don't contribute to the pool of economic benefits

Two issues I take with this:

1. Those incapable of contributing, such as the psychologically or physically unwell, must I guess just die

2. I could restate this further as "Returns from entitlement should correlate linearly with input to entitlement," that is, the more taxes in real dollars you pay, the more benefits you should get from the system, which I think is awful for many reasons.

Re: Do the Rich Capture All the Gains from Economic Growth?

#40
Two issues:

- Income levels indicate practical income that market is willing to pay, therefore claiming that unreported income boosts poor people's income is bogus. Unreported income going into poor peoples pockets will not exceed median levels. It may shift what is considered median, but I absolutely disagree that all of that money drastically changes the state of poorer people.

- Adding up poorer people gains and saying that their gains are 70%, while rich people's gain are 33% is also misleading. Wealth transfer and accumulation is totally ignored by this.

Wages have stagnated is a technically incorrect statement. If you take wealth accumulation, you'll have to change the tune... Wealthy people become wealthier, at a rate considerably higher than the average individual.

Just mere tax "optimization" options are way more readily available for rich people, than to poor people. According to Warren Buffet - his taxes are lower even in relative terms, than his own secretary's. Which makes an employee's wage growth of 70% not even close to 33% of a rich person's.

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