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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#31

Post by greglindahl »

antisthenes wrote: post #27
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#32

Post by andrewmunsell »

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars.

Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations. There's 4 ChargePoint stations in a garage near me that have been broken and unmaintained for years, and they're out of warranty and the mall doesn't have a financial incentive to fix them.

And then there's the DC fast chargers. I'm not aware of a single BEV (Volts or other PHEVs are excluded here) that can travel across the US with a reasonable route without worrying about finding chargers along the way. In fact, last time I looked, there was no physical way I could do a road trip I've been meaning to do through the western US in my i3 (my car, of course, has half the battery range of a Bolt) because of a lack of chargers.

Tesla's Supercharger build out is extremely important to their future. Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere (and figure out the CCS vs CHAdeMO format war), Tesla is going to have a massive advantage. Sure, not everyone is going to want to do a multi-thousand mile road trip, but driving one of Tesla's cars might make them.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#33

Post by andrewmunsell »

Cross posting from the other thread:

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having broken charging stations. There's 4 ChargePoint stations in a garage near me that have been broken and unmaintained for years, and they're out of warranty and the mall doesn't have a financial incentive to fix them.

And then there's the DC fast chargers. I'm not aware of a single BEV (Volts or other PHEVs are excluded here) that can travel across the US with a reasonable route without worrying about finding chargers along the way. In fact, last time I looked, there was no physical way I could do a road trip I've been meaning to do through the western US in my i3 (my car, of course, has half the battery range of a Bolt) because of a lack of chargers.

Tesla's Supercharger build out is extremely important to their future. Until other companies step up and install DCFC stations everywhere (and figure out the CCS vs CHAdeMO format war), Tesla is going to have a massive advantage. Sure, not everyone is going to want to do a multi-thousand mile road trip, but driving one of Tesla's cars might make them.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#34

Post by ZeroGravitas »

smogcutter wrote: post #30
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

If the electric revolution requires a federal subsidy to compete then it has not, in fact, arrived.

By that logic the gasoline engine has not yet arrived either.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#35

Post by mikestew »

spike021 wrote: post #23
Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

I've got a friend on the assembly line in Fremont. He says he doesn't mind the hours too much. However, they basically keep adding extra or overtime shifts to his schedule. I think right now he might be working 5 or 6 day weeks, and I'm fairly sure they're minimum 8 hours, and obviously with overtime could be several hours above that. Sounds awful, but in some ways isn't that how manufacturing has sort of always been…

Sounds awful

Sounds better than bustin' ass for 60 hours/week for my base salary. Your friend is getting paid 1.5X for every hour over 40. And, yes, it is not uncommon over the years. My dad would seemingly work every overtime hour given. And at time-and-a-half, so would I.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#36

Post by goshx »

chrisco255 wrote: post #8
scotchio wrote: post #2

Congrats to Tesla! This is HILARIOUS to see after the thousands and thousands of negative articles and press over the last year.

Bring on the electric revolution! Agreed...has there ever been so much hate levied at a company playing a HUGE role in moving technology forward?

And not only technologies, but sustainable solutions that will impact about everyone in the planet with the cut in CO2 emissions.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#37

Post by ethbro »

greglindahl wrote: post #31
antisthenes wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

The Edison (E26/7, circa-1900) base isn't the best choice for light bulbs.

But it is good enough.

And now we're plugging high-powered LED bulbs into them. Technology finds a way. Be first!

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#38

Post by dev_dull »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #19

They have to be happy with those numbers, interesting question of whether they continue to sell the S,X,3's and generate a pile of cash before they start burning it on model Y development. In general it should also muzzle a lot of the nay sayers, it isn't easy to lie about money in the bank. Solar City is a disappointment. I keep watching the solar roof tile business to see if that goes anywhere. I'm getting close to…

Just a heads up. Make sure you get both solar and powerwall at the same time if you don’t yet already have solar. I learned the hard way about the additional cost associated with replacing the ac inverter.

Here we’re mandated by the city to be connected to the grid at ~$10 a month, which (along with net metering) pretty much disincentives a powerwall.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#39

Post by kazinator »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #34
smogcutter wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the electric revolution requires a federal subsidy to compete then it has not, in fact, arrived.

By that logic the gasoline engine has not yet arrived either.

Not to mention the pneumatic tire on asphalt road.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#40

Post by crwalker »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage?

I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

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