Similarly (and as an anecdote), I have seen cherry blossom trees blooming in the wrong weeks of the year where I live in southern Brazil. I live across a garden-ish square with dozens of them right across the street. The city is sprayed with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handroanthus_albus too — as I have one in my front yard — and every year I notice the blooming season shifting a bit, to the point that we are now in late October and the yellow blooming is either quite late AND timid or even inexistent because the tree decided to flip the bird (pun intended) to the weather changes.
Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
31–40 of 64 posts
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
You lose people when you don't include any evidence and say "supported by mountains of evidence". (I agree with your point but please supplement your claim with evidence.)
Only if we allow sealioning to take over - global climate change is in the realm of accepted science, its 100% on people claiming the opposite to prove their claims at this point.
You're not necessarily arguing directly against the other person, you're also playing the room. Every time you talk to someone who denies climate change is another chance to convince them and everyone who is reading of what you believe.
So in my opinion it's best to cite your own evidence regardless of how accepted your beliefs are by an establishment, rather than just saying the other side has the burden of proof. Whether or not this comes from a pre-curated set of talking points is up to you.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has inc…
And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.
While there are people putting out papers that suggest that what we are seeing is the result solar cycles, and perhaps the overlaying of multiple solar maxiuma, eg:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001282521... *
There are many more that refute this however:
- https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018...
and it seems to me that current climate science is largely in the "it's human produced C02" camp.
You can search yourself for research at https://scholar.google.com.
* though note that ISTR this paper only revises anthropogenic climate change down to 0.6°C which is still pretty high, and sorry, I can't find a free PDF of this paper anywhere.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#34The Economist published a remarkable chart last year that shows 1200 years of cherry blossom data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...
This is an interesting figure. Naturally, the sharp decline in the last 100 years or so captures one's attention, and would fit in with globally rising temperatures. However, one other thing differentiates the older and newer epochs: The variance is much larger for older data. On the one hand it could be that increased variance is due to natural phenomenon (cooler weather?) or random error of less reliable measuremen…
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Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#35The Economist published a remarkable chart last year that shows 1200 years of cherry blossom data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...
Note that is for the cherry blossoms of Kyoto. So I'd say that the graph means next to nothing in terms of global or even national climate trends. This is about a very small city-dominated local climate. Any variation from a norm could have more to do with the heating/cooling of buildings and local traffic rather than global warming. The trend towards the use of glass in new buildings could have as much an impact as global carbon.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.
Seriously, it isn't we have ice cores, and direct records for the last 200 years that show that the periodic changes in planet temperature are nothing like what has been happening for the last hundred years. That said, I'm going to assume that based on your comment, you aren't actually interested in science or anything beyond talking points provided by others. If you were actually interested in the science of this yo…
Reading this is is like reading a batman comic, I picture comic bubbles with "POW!" and "BOOM!" after each sentence.
I like how you explain things, very easy to understand. Thanks for the insightful comments.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#37The Economist published a remarkable chart last year that shows 1200 years of cherry blossom data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...
Note that is for the cherry blossoms of Kyoto. So I'd say that the graph means next to nothing in terms of global or even national climate trends. This is about a very small city-dominated local climate. Any variation from a norm could have more to do with the heating/cooling of buildings and local traffic rather than global warming. The trend towards the use of glass in new buildings could have as much an impact as…
Despite the down votes this is a perfectly valid point. In the last 100 years Kyoto has turned from a quiet backwater into a city of over 1 million, liberally slathered in concrete like every other Japanese city. This will have an impact on the local climate, above and beyond global warming as a whole.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#38We have some ducks in our backyard, who aren't the same pairs I usually see during the Spring. This group showed up a few weeks ago, and haven't left... I imagine they're coming from somewhere in Canada far north, but it's unusual to see them linger for so long. Seems like the current climate is confusing to the animals and the trees.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#39The Economist published a remarkable chart last year that shows 1200 years of cherry blossom data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...
Note that is for the cherry blossoms of Kyoto. So I'd say that the graph means next to nothing in terms of global or even national climate trends. This is about a very small city-dominated local climate. Any variation from a norm could have more to do with the heating/cooling of buildings and local traffic rather than global warming. The trend towards the use of glass in new buildings could have as much an impact as…
People down voting this are ignorant of how cities affect the local climate. Urban effects would dwarf global climate changes pretty much always.
Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting. I live on the West coast and I cannot remember the fall foliage ever being as spectacular as it has been this year. I was just wondering the other day why it was so much better than ever before.
Do you mean West Coast USA? I'm in Oregon and I'll say that fall foliage has been nice the last few days, but we also didn't get much rain this summer, and the last few winters have been lacking in moisture as well. My parents tell me it used to rain and snow quite a lot more than it has been these last few decades.
I moved from the Seattle area to eastern Washington about ten years ago. When I first moved here, people said "oh, this isn't a normal winter." Summer came "Oh, this isn't a normal summer." Several more years went by, with some winters having no snow, others piled up to six feet. Some summers it was 100F for a month straight, others just a week. I finally came to the conclusion that there was no such thing as a normal year to my non-meteorologist experience, because the normal was spread over a decade or more. I've also come to the conclusion that there are a lot of micro-climates in the northwest, having observed that with mountains, water, prairie, rolling hills, etc all over the place the weather can change significantly within just a short drive.