Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#21

Post by jellicle » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #20

olliej wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has inc…

And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.

But this isn't a warming or cooling cycle caused by any external event, but rather one caused by humans. It's not going to "switch back" to cooling, and this is indeed very new, entirely unprecedented in Earth's existence, and supported by mountains of evidence. The massive amount of pollution we've dumped into the atmosphere is causing irrevocable, widespread, vast changes to the Earth.

All of the above is stuff any kindergartener knows.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#22

Post by stephengillie » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:15 PM UTC

forkandwait wrote: post #11

irrational wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. I live on the West coast and I cannot remember the fall foliage ever being as spectacular as it has been this year. I was just wondering the other day why it was so much better than ever before.

In the pnw it's because of a remarkable storm free October. The trees are progressing the same as always, but the leaves aren't getting knocked off. I think.

The storms are from the jet stream moving from north of Seattle, to south of the region. When the jet stream is directly above us, we get storms.

Summer is when the jet stream is to the north, and we get included in the band of warm air that California always enjoys. Winter is when it moves to the south, putting the Seattle area in the cold band that Alaska always endures.

The jet stream is late this year.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#23

Post by olliej » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:24 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #20

olliej wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has inc…

And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.

Seriously, it isn't we have ice cores, and direct records for the last 200 years that show that the periodic changes in planet temperature are nothing like what has been happening for the last hundred years.

That said, I'm going to assume that based on your comment, you aren't actually interested in science or anything beyond talking points provided by others.

If you were actually interested in the science of this you would be able to provide studies that haven't been subsequently refuted, or been demonstrated to not actually compensate for the measured effect of global warming.

Solar cycles have been demonstrated to not explain the current changes in global temperature. The impact is not anywhere near fast enough to match current the last hundred years of change.

Random variance doesn't explain it - models for global warming predict increases in extremes of basically all events. Random variance is random so does not explain any changes with a measurable bias.

Conspiracy theories don't explain anything. 1) they're conspiracy theories, not science; 2) they depend on everyone lying about the temperature over time, except everyone agrees on what the temperatures are.

No hypothesis put forward, matches the core predictive ability of global warming theory: global temperature is increasing, as a result of increased CO2 and other pollutants introduced into the atmosphere by human, and human driven industries. This theory predicts increased global average temperature as long as greenhouse emissions continue, it explains ocean acidification, and it explains increased frequency "extreme" weather.

If you have some alternative hypothesis that matches prior atmospheric behavior over the last 200 years, and can also explain the things that global warming does, I'm all ears.

But I suspect you're just either a troll, or a talking point driven internet commenter.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#24

Post by notyourwork » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:42 PM UTC

jellicle wrote: post #21

briandear wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.

But this isn't a warming or cooling cycle caused by any external event, but rather one caused by humans. It's not going to "switch back" to cooling, and this is indeed very new, entirely unprecedented in Earth's existence, and supported by mountains of evidence. The massive amount of pollution we've dumped into the atmosphere is causing irrevocable, widespread, vast changes to the Earth. All of the above is stuff any…

You lose people when you don't include any evidence and say "supported by mountains of evidence". (I agree with your point but please supplement your claim with evidence.)

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#25

Post by rdiddly » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:46 PM UTC

dexterdog wrote: post #3

simonebrunozzi wrote: post #2

TL;DR: Two typhoons followed by warm weather triggered them.

And it has happened before. And it's not widespread.

The article is funny, it says blossoms were sighted in "an area stretching from Kyushu... to Hokkaido." Unless there's some other Kyushu that I don't know about, that's the whole country. Look at a map, Ms. Brigit Katz of Smithsonian.com. Kyushu is at one end, Hokkaido is at the other. It's like if you said "an area stretching from California to Maine."

Japan's not big, but I mean this is as "widespread" as you can get while still having the word "Japan's" in the title.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#26

Post by hobs » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 6:59 PM UTC

notyourwork wrote: post #24

jellicle wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this isn't a warming or cooling cycle caused by any external event, but rather one caused by humans. It's not going to "switch back" to cooling, and this is indeed very new, entirely unprecedented in Earth's existence, and supported by mountains of evidence. The massive amount of pollution we've dumped into the atmosphere is causing irrevocable, widespread, vast changes to the Earth. All of the above is stuff any…

You lose people when you don't include any evidence and say "supported by mountains of evidence". (I agree with your point but please supplement your claim with evidence.)

Only if we allow sealioning to take over - global climate change is in the realm of accepted science, its 100% on people claiming the opposite to prove their claims at this point.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#27

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

malingo wrote: post #13

The Economist published a remarkable chart last year that shows 1200 years of cherry blossom data: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...

This is an interesting figure. Naturally, the sharp decline in the last 100 years or so captures one's attention, and would fit in with globally rising temperatures.

However, one other thing differentiates the older and newer epochs: The variance is much larger for older data. On the one hand it could be that increased variance is due to natural phenomenon (cooler weather?) or random error of less reliable measurements. However if that larger variance is due to systematic error (e.g., different methodologies/sources which were not accounted in the model (e.g., using hierarchical modeling), then there is a possibility that the difference between older and newer data are not that dramatic. What an interesting (and alarming) figure.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#28

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 7:08 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #20

olliej wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has inc…

And this is 100% correct. And, it has happened before. The world has had warming and cooling cycles for as long as there has been earth. The idea that all of this is a “new” thing isn’t supported by evidence.

Your argument is essentially: It is ok that my house is burning down today because my house has a heater that gets lit every winter.

You see, there is a difference in magnitude and velocity of the warming over the last century that differentiates the current warming to past warming cycles.

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#29

Post by tejtm » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 7:22 PM UTC

olliej wrote: post #16

dexterdog wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it has happened before. And it's not widespread.

I’m assuming you’re trying to claim this is not related to global warming (“ it has happened before”). Global warming is a large scale and long term problem, and the first thing you would expect is an increase in frequency of previously uncommon events - take warm weather: historically there may have been a few year where the temp got to X degrees, from an average of Y degrees. But now the average Temperature has inc…

For any looking for more info on non warm blooded life being dependent on ambient temperatures to accumulate the energy to perform protein reactions, see the concept of Growing_degree-day

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_degree-day

Re: Why Are Japan’s Cherry Blossom Trees Blooming in Fall?

#30

Post by 98codes » Tue, Oct 23, 2018, 7:26 PM UTC

AznHisoka wrote: post #7

There's a similar phenomenon in play in the US. Foliage is not as beautiful this fall because of all the rain that we got this summer: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/23/fall-f...

And it's gorgeous in the Seattle area of all places because of the record breaking lack of rain during the summer, go figure.