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The rise of the robot farmer

theguardian.com

21–30 of 187 posts

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#21
post #13
post #6

> This is the one note of darkness that enters an otherwise optimistic conversation. “This technology could be used in a completely different way,” he says. “You could have entire states in America with no people in them. The potential for what we’re doing to be used in the wrong way is there.” What is inherently wrong or evil about this? If we could automate a state-size farm to feed everyone, isn't that a good thin…

Feeding everyone is, of course, a good thing. But to have a state with no people in it implies that people would not be allowed to enter it, i.e. it would represent huge swathes of natural resources wherein some smaller group of people would be keeping the general public out by virtue of it being private property. Forcing people off of land and into cities, thus forcing them to buy food with labor, is one of the prim…

How do you link machines to bondage? If you look at slavery from Sparta to the American South it's often had a large component of agricultural labor. Even things like serfdom where the serfs were nominally free but tied to working the land it they were doing agricultural work.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#22
post #6

> This is the one note of darkness that enters an otherwise optimistic conversation. “This technology could be used in a completely different way,” he says. “You could have entire states in America with no people in them. The potential for what we’re doing to be used in the wrong way is there.” What is inherently wrong or evil about this? If we could automate a state-size farm to feed everyone, isn't that a good thin…

Well, the one person in the state would get two senators and a representative, so that's one thing to consider.

That's why I'd be in favor of making vertical farming more prevalent- by making farmers physically closer to the coastal cities they serve the rural areas will be starved economically. At this point in time, it's my conviction that retribution for the present tyranny of the minority will best come through technological means rather than warfare or politics.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#23
post #5

> “I expected farmers to be quite luddite about the adoption of new technology,” he [Ben Scott-Robinson] says, as he packs Rachel away. I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology. They are hard workers and good business men. Usually technology makes them more efficient and more money.

I joined an AgTech firm 3 years ago - this is my commentary, not the view of my company or anyone else there.

> I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology.

The answer (at least in my experience) is a bit more complicated.

> Usually technology makes them more efficient and more money.

...because this sentence isn't really true.

Yes, farmers are hard workers and if they aren't adequate at business they fail, as the industry is....weird (high capital expenses, large variability that is outside your control). They also tend to be much older (it's not unusual to find a 60 year old farmer that is getting excited because their father is considering retirement and leaving them finally in charge of the farm). And they have been targeted for new technology long before the current data- and/or robotics- oriented trends, so they've heard plenty of grandiose claims that weren't matched by results.

Adopting a new technology is almost always pricey - either it applies to the field, so multiply the price by the acres and it gets quite large quite quickly, or you apply it to equipment, which tends to run $50K-$100K and have to last quite a few years)

Weather is the biggest variable in farm output, and it's both hard to measure and impossible to control, so knowing if a product works reliably requires testing in all sorts of weather conditions, which is VERY hard to arrange.

Trusting the benefits is also difficult - anything tested in Nebraska will find that Idaho is completely different - different soil, different weather patterns. Even if the product IS tested everywhere (and it isn't, not in sufficient detail and over sufficient time - remember that variability?) the farmers have been told that before - they'll want to see it, or see it from someone they trust to know their specific conditions.

Then there's the level of output. Look at GMO seeds - leaving aside any other controversy (for now), studies show they DO offer yield benefits, but whether that is enough to recoup the costs is a "that depends" kind of answer. When prices are low, the return value of yield is low, but the costs of whatever you used to increase yield is probably fixed.

When you add in the cost of adopting a new technology plus the low level of trustable benefits a healthy amount of skepticism is present. There's a reason most transactions occur between people with some level of established relationship - seed dealers, regional agronomists, etc. This means convincing a farmer is often a matter of convincing one or more of these other people first, THEN convincing the farmer.

My personal experiences found farmers more interested in adopting technology than I expected, but at the same time any limits that are encountered tend to be VERY hard limits. Until they've seen something recommended by someone they trust that is familiar with their local conditions, they won't risk a harvest on it, and even running a test strip of, say, 10 ft x 100ft is a non-trivial expense. So while they are more tech-adopting than I expected, and once they truly adopt something they tend to commit, they are not what most would consider "technology friendly" and have a respect for tradition and local relationships based on a history of significant financial pain when they defy it unwisely.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#24
post #9

In Michigan we've already got family farms with a man, two sons and a single employee handling 10,000 acres. Robots driving tractors, trucks and combines would allow that to expand 5-6X. In turn that would lead to a reduction in farmers of up to 80%. This is a trend that has been running for close to a hundred years. Remember at one time a quarter of America's population were farmers and now it's under 2%.

The immense productivity gains in agriculture have driven down food costs, which improves the standard of living of everyone. It also frees up those who would have worked farm jobs to do higher-valued labor in the economy.

In theory. In practice, this has lead to collapse of rural economies, rampant poverty, and epidemic drug usage amongst rural populations. As to driving food costs down, that's trivially disprovable. Loaf of bread in 1950: 12 cents. Adjusted for inflation that's $1.26 currently. A cheap loaf of white bread costs substantially more than $1.26.

Edit: of course this gets downvoted, because econ gibberish is certainly more valid than observed reality.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#25
Potentially relevant article that came to mind:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/

The point about entire states being used for agriculture is interesting, and I guess whether you see this as utopic or dystopic really depends on the nature of the owner of the land. If the government owned the machines, land, and produce, and socialized the gains, this seems like a utopic solution, although obviously there is potential for abuse and bureaucrazy. On the other hand, if a corporation owned it, it would seem very bizarre and symbolic of income inequality.

I wonder if Marx was simply too early. Let the machines be the proletariat and let all of society be the bourgeoisie, and maybe communism can work in some industries.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#26
post #5

> “I expected farmers to be quite luddite about the adoption of new technology,” he [Ben Scott-Robinson] says, as he packs Rachel away. I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology. They are hard workers and good business men. Usually technology makes them more efficient and more money.

> I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology They should be, especially wrt to automation, considering farmers have been the most prolific in hiring undocumented workers while at the same time being some of the most vocal republican supporters. WAY less cognitive dissonance.

A lot of them use legitimate guest worker systems, and it benefits everyone to have access to these workers.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#27
post #9

In Michigan we've already got family farms with a man, two sons and a single employee handling 10,000 acres. Robots driving tractors, trucks and combines would allow that to expand 5-6X. In turn that would lead to a reduction in farmers of up to 80%. This is a trend that has been running for close to a hundred years. Remember at one time a quarter of America's population were farmers and now it's under 2%.

managing giant monocultures with a few giant machines (that may or may not be human controlled) is not what this article is about; it is about the huge potential that smallish robots have for farming. More diverse crops, less pesticides, less damage to soil, less energy use, mixed instead of mono cultures. Really exciting if this takes off, such a win for the environment, the landscape, and ultimately for everyone of us

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The immense productivity gains in agriculture have driven down food costs, which improves the standard of living of everyone. It also frees up those who would have worked farm jobs to do higher-valued labor in the economy.

> frees up those who would have worked farm jobs to do higher-valued labor in the economy That's the ideal, in reality too many of these people live in areas where there are no other opportunities. They are also often fed the line that the job can be brought back. Put simply, we've observed generational shifts to higher-valued jobs in urban areas. A farmer, coal miner , etc who loses their job today is unlikely to re…

> A farmer, coal miner , etc who loses their job today is unlikely to re-skill & move to other industries

Don't confuse what is the current outcome with what has to be the outcome. Those individuals might not reskill in todays environment because of a combination of receiving an insufficient amount of the value they produced in their wages (preventing them from having the resources to retrain themselves), as well as social programs for reskilling being severely limited in both funding and how they constrain how and what skills are trained. (preventing gov't resources from retraining workers).

Neither of those has to be a forgone conclusion.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the one person in the state would get two senators and a representative, so that's one thing to consider.

That's why I'd be in favor of making vertical farming more prevalent- by making farmers physically closer to the coastal cities they serve the rural areas will be starved economically. At this point in time, it's my conviction that retribution for the present tyranny of the minority will best come through technological means rather than warfare or politics.

Fully automated tower farms are a dream of the future city.

Re: The rise of the robot farmer

#30
post #5

> “I expected farmers to be quite luddite about the adoption of new technology,” he [Ben Scott-Robinson] says, as he packs Rachel away. I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology. They are hard workers and good business men. Usually technology makes them more efficient and more money.

I joined an AgTech firm 3 years ago - this is my commentary, not the view of my company or anyone else there. > I actually assume farmers are very welcoming of technology. The answer (at least in my experience) is a bit more complicated. > Usually technology makes them more efficient and more money. ...because this sentence isn't really true. Yes, farmers are hard workers and if they aren't adequate at business they…

Thanks; that's the most valuable comment on the page.

In a way, that's much like people in any industry, they only trust people in their profession: Doctors trust only other doctors; lawyers trust only other lawyers, etc.

In a way it makes a lot of sense: Would anyone here trust a farmer's, doctor's, or lawyer's recommendation on something for your profession? If a doctor said, here's a much ergonomically healthy layout for server racks in a datacenter ... I would think that maybe it's healthier - not all claims come true - but I'd assume the doctor had no idea what is needed for datacenters or server racks. If another IT professional said, 'I'm using this and it works great', it would be a different story.

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