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The End of x86?

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Re: The End of x86?

#111

Post by gwern »

pkaler wrote: post #10
neilc wrote: post #3

Is ARM's power advantage really that significant for devices larger than the smart phone / tablet form factor? If an Atom-based CPU consumes ~2-3 extra watts but offers marginally better performance and (more importantly) compatibility with an enormous base of existing applications, that doesn't seem like a very compelling argument for switching.

Is ARM's power advantage really that significant for devices larger than the smart phone / tablet form factor? I'll bet $5 that the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse. The Asus Eee PCs running Android with Snapdragon processors already embed the Cortex-A9 MPCores.

Prediction recorded: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1861

Hope you're still around in 2 years; it can be interesting to ponder a falsified prediction and wonder, why did I believe that?

Re: The End of x86?

#112

Post by listic »

loewenskind wrote: post #99
tjmc wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big problem with Step 5 - people couldn't run Windows on their Macbooks except under emulation. That would be a deal breaker for a lot of potential customers (pretty much all the gamers for example) and Apple knows it. Personally, I don't think the transition to ARM on the Mac will happen any time soon. Apple will just try to convince more people to buy iOS devices instead.

>That would be a deal breaker for a lot of potential customers Today it would be, but mobile is really taking off. Who knows where we'll be in even 2 years. Maybe by step 5 the remaining things we have to have windows for (e.g. Office) simply wont be a requirement anymore.

Well, it's not just Office, it's a great deal of games and specialized software. But yes, I'm afraid Apple can live with Macs not supporting Windows.

Re: The End of x86?

#113

Post by ippisl »

dkersten wrote: post #103
ippisl wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also intel is being disrupted from the higher end by GPU's and the new ARM processors(due to performance/watt), and multicore processors like tilera.

Tilera is a very expensive option, though, and only makes sense for a small subset of the x86 market. I had a phone conversation with one of their managers about a year ago (I was trying to see could I get a sample PCIe board) and they are damned expensive, so it would only make sense if you have something that 1) parallelizes very well, 2) actually needs the performance, 3) runs on Linux* or can be easily ported to…

They are in the process of releasing a 512 core server togheter with quanta , in Q4 2010 targeted for the LAMP stack. they claim great saving in power and space, and strong performance.

it would be interesting to know the lifetime cost(including power, cooling and space) relative to the x86.

Re: The End of x86?

#114

Post by ippisl »

bad_user wrote: post #88
ippisl wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also intel is being disrupted from the higher end by GPU's and the new ARM processors(due to performance/watt), and multicore processors like tilera.

I haven't heard about Tilera until just now: it does have potential, but disrupting X86? That requires proof. Also GPUs have their uses, but general-purpose they are not. GPUs are complements to CPUs (just as coprocessors specialized for floating-point calculations where back in the day). Most people here probably haven't lived the day when 80387 had to be installed alongside i386 if you wanted decent graphics perfor…

tilera claims to release a competitor to the x86 for the LAMP stack in Q4 2010, togheter with quanta(a big hardware OEM). but yes, it this requires proof.

for some tasks(like HPC , multimedia) , the gpu can handle most of the computation , and the cpu is somewhat of a sidekick(like in the nVidia ION netbooks , for example).

while windows would still dominate, the importance of a strong x86 cpu would decrease, by all the changes in the ecosystems , and the costs of the x86 processor will decrease.

Re: The End of x86?

#115

Post by Hoff »

gridspy wrote: post #55
gamble wrote: post #21

I'm not going to write off Intel yet, but they're in a dangerous position. The number one reason Microsoft's stock has been moribund the past ten years is that Linux took over the datacenter. Imagine how much more revenue they'd have if the millions upon millions of X86 servers deployed since 2000 ran Windows. Instead, they're stuck in a saturated, slow-growth monopoly. If non-x86 chips take off in data centers, Inte…

... And windows will be locked out of the datacenter until they create ARM-compatible versions of windows. Next thing you know Windows runs on both ARM and x86 (with x86 emulation for applications) and pushes x86 out of the commercial / domestic arena.

Microsoft Windows on Itanium was once marketed as the path forward for x86 applications, too.

Intel hasn't had particular success with microprocessor designs outside of its core x86 business. Examples of other designs include iAPX432, i860/i960, StrongARM/XScale and Itanium.

These architecture transitions don't always work out. While Apple has some experience with porting and has maked it look (relatively) easy, Windows hasn't had particular success with its ports, whether via Itanium's x86 emulation or via translation tools such as FX!32.

Re: The End of x86?

#117

Post by jawee »

konad wrote: post #102
jawee wrote: post #64

From my experience in running Debian on ARM, I can say that the software difference is really non-existence. Any of the normal Debian OSS software works fine.. I did not run into any problems with software not working except for the closed source programs that didn't have ARM packages. I really can't imagine the architecture shift being that big of a problem, as I'm assuming the bulk of the work for ARM with Debian w…

How about ffmpeg / libdv / mplayer Last time I looked they had hand coded asm.

I only tried with VLC player which didn't present any immediate problems, but I don't know if it uses any of these libraries.

Re: The End of x86?

#119

Post by rospaya »

happybuy wrote: post #52

As I wrote in a similar thread I think Intel and x86 is already dead - the writing is on the wall - Intel just doesn't know it yet. Below is how I believe a key customer has already planned to leave the x86 architecture as nothing but a footnote in their history (alongside the remnants of PowerPC). --- Currently Apple relies on Intel for a major component in a key product. Strategically, Apple doesn't like to have to…

You're talking about Apple, which has less than 10% of the worldwide computer market. What about Dell and HP? Currently the software commands the hardware, not the other way around.

A lot of businesses depend on MS Windows and lots of other x86 software, too much for a simple switch to ARM. Apple could do it because they have a firm grip on their ecosystem, but the rest of the market isn't in such a position.

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