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High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

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Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#71
post #63
post #44

It's hard not to see the overall solution to the housing crisis in some North American cities as simply building more housing. A speculation and/or vacancy tax makes sense in cities with a high number of foreign buyers like Vancouver and New York but in other cities it seems like the biggest road block is simply zoning restrictions that prevent supply to meet demand. There are second order effects that need to go w/…

For the last 20 years Vancouver has been adding housing stock, mostly in the form of multi-family dwellings, at one of the highest rates in North America. We're adding as much as we can as fast as we can. The situation now is worse than ever, so "build more housing" is clearly not a solution, and in fact may be making things worse by adding a lot of investment vehicles that attract foreign capital.

Build more housing only works if you actually build enough to satisfy the demand — so it would be cool if we knew a number of houses built vs people trying to buy houses type of thing. Maybe you are right just I don’t know the data on the subject for Vancouver. I heard similar arguments while living in Bay Area that “we’ve tried to build our way out of this problem and it hasn’t worked for 20 years” but actually they were building one house for every 10 people moving there so, in that case it was a case that they under built for a long time because after people would move to their little corner of SF they would say ok no more people.. it’s good as is.. ultimately if you look at places like Dayton (good frontline episode on this recently), you see what happens when you build a ton of housing during a boom then factories leave and the houses then sell for basically $0.. often people are buying houses there for $5k, and buying 5 at a time then remodeling them. So overbuilding is bad as well as underbuilding.. my take is that the most sustainable building approach is to build in places that people still want to live in even when the economy is down. Like surprise surprise living 40 miles outside of Las Vegas next to a strip mall likely will drop in value when you can afford to buy a place that is more desirable closer to services and jobs and friends.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#72
post #16

> A $3 million house that would have rented for $5,000 a year ago $5k/mo for a $3M home is a cap rate of just 2%. That's pretty terrible in itself. Now it's $4k/mo or 1.6%? How on earth is that financially sustainable at either amount?

These houses weren’t purchased to rent out. They were safe deposit boxes for cash. The expectations were that they would just keep going up in value. Their rent value didn’t matter.

Could be both.

The house where I rent is owned by a woman in China who phoned up a local real estate management company, bought the first 20 houses on their list, and wired them the money.

It's probably more complicated than that, but that's the short form story the management company told me. The company also said it's very common.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#73
post #5

This is great news and may serve as a model for other cities facing similar housing shortages. Was the speculation tax a ballot measure or something passed at the city council level?

It's hard to draw direct comparisons between Vancouver and San Francisco's housing markets. Canada, as well as each of the provinces, local municipalities, and cities, have representational democracy, not a quasi-direct democracy like California. The spike in affordability in Vancouver wasn't caused directly due to a shortage in housing stock and an influx of residents. It was caused by rampant speculation from peopl…

I can't overstate how detrimental this is to a city. What you end up with are entire neighbourhoods which are occupied at 50% or less, and yet with the value of the homes exceeding $2-$4 million. It causes stores in those local neighbourhoods to close because there aren't enough customers.

I've read that this is the case in London, as well. And probably lots of other cities with names that are well known in China and Russia.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#74
post #16

> A $3 million house that would have rented for $5,000 a year ago $5k/mo for a $3M home is a cap rate of just 2%. That's pretty terrible in itself. Now it's $4k/mo or 1.6%? How on earth is that financially sustainable at either amount?

In the BC interior (say the Okanagan), where houses are cheaper, a $750K house would rent out for $3000/mo. In Vancouver proper, it's common to pay $3K for a nice 800 sq ft condo. I understand it doesn't scale linearly and these are mostly foreign investors moving money out of their country, but still... I have a hard time believing you can rent a $3M mansion for just $5K a month anywhere near Vancouver.

I think craigslist listings tend to be on the expensive side because more expensive listings stay up for longer.

I rent a 1500sqft condo in this building for 3k a month (listed at 2M) https://bccondos.net/1238-richards

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#75
post #71
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the last 20 years Vancouver has been adding housing stock, mostly in the form of multi-family dwellings, at one of the highest rates in North America. We're adding as much as we can as fast as we can. The situation now is worse than ever, so "build more housing" is clearly not a solution, and in fact may be making things worse by adding a lot of investment vehicles that attract foreign capital.

Build more housing only works if you actually build enough to satisfy the demand — so it would be cool if we knew a number of houses built vs people trying to buy houses type of thing. Maybe you are right just I don’t know the data on the subject for Vancouver. I heard similar arguments while living in Bay Area that “we’ve tried to build our way out of this problem and it hasn’t worked for 20 years” but actually they…

We need to be smart about where we want to invest housing in. People are living in cities now and Columbus has been bigger than Dayton for quite some time. Columbus will hit 1M people soon. Columbus has a diverse set of industry and is more of a service industry city, Dayton was always a one industry town.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#76
post #2

Does anyone have details on the "speculation" tax? Do any other regions use similar taxes?

London has a second home tax, https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/mar/31/stamp-duty-sec... and a luxury home tax https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/04/luxury-homes-tax.html but they also had to add rules for proving money was not laundered to buy things earlier this year for the UK https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2018-06-... though it sounds like a workaround is to use shell companies in different countries to buy property.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#77
post #63
post #44

It's hard not to see the overall solution to the housing crisis in some North American cities as simply building more housing. A speculation and/or vacancy tax makes sense in cities with a high number of foreign buyers like Vancouver and New York but in other cities it seems like the biggest road block is simply zoning restrictions that prevent supply to meet demand. There are second order effects that need to go w/…

For the last 20 years Vancouver has been adding housing stock, mostly in the form of multi-family dwellings, at one of the highest rates in North America. We're adding as much as we can as fast as we can. The situation now is worse than ever, so "build more housing" is clearly not a solution, and in fact may be making things worse by adding a lot of investment vehicles that attract foreign capital.

We're adding as much as we can as fast as we can

This is not even remotely true. Much of the city is still zoned exclusively for single-family housing, although that may be (very slowly—too slowly) changing: https://www.sightline.org/2018/08/14/vancouver-housing-of-al....

About two-thirds of Seattle is also single-family only: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/amid-seatt....

Those factors alone likely explain much of the housing shortage. Make it legal to build the housing that people want to live in, and the housing will be built.

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#78
post #66

I want to point out that Vancouver’s municipal election is today (I’m standing in line for it), and many of the candidates are running on platforms related to the housing crisis. Whatever you think of the issue, this particular article isn’t “about” the issue so much as it is a precisely-timed propaganda piece aimed at influencing the election.

[deleted]

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#79
post #2

Does anyone have details on the "speculation" tax? Do any other regions use similar taxes?

London has a second home tax, https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/mar/31/stamp-duty-sec... and a luxury home tax https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/04/luxury-homes-tax.html but they also had to add rules for proving money was not laundered to buy things earlier this year for the UK https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2018-06-... though it sounds like a workaround is to use shell companies in different co…

thanks!

Re: High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

#80
post #2

Does anyone have details on the "speculation" tax? Do any other regions use similar taxes?

Here's the government info: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/property-taxes/spec... Essentially the tax targets secondary home ownership in certain non-tourism related hot housing markets of the province. A British Columbian that has a cabin in the woods somewhere is not terribly likely to be impacted. There has been criticism from people saying "but I'm not 'speculating' I have a second home in Vancouver bec…

thanks for the context!
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