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Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

80000hours.org

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Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many pro-choice people do you think are persuaded by Symmetrically, how many pro-life people do you think are persuaded by the people screaming "woman-hater/sexist/misogynist" outside of Planned Parenthood? If you can't explain your argument in a calm, rational manner, You overestimate the efficacy of explaining in a calm, rational manner. As a university teacher with > 10 years experience, I can tell you with ex…

"An interesting article in The Atlantic talks about studies showing that liberals think in terms of fairness while conservatives think in terms of morality . So if you want to persuade someone on the other team, you need to speak in their language. We almost never do that. That’s why you rarely see people change their opinions... ...If your aim is to persuade, you have to speak the language of the other. Talking abou…

I'm not sure Scott Adams has really grasped moral foundations theory. It explain the differences in the moral systems used by American liberals and conservatives - it does not claim that liberals lack a sense of morality.

His abortion example strikes me as particularly off-base. Again, it's not that US liberals don't care about morality. Of course liberals think murder is wrong! They just don't consider a fetus to have the moral standing of a human.

Anyway, some direct links regarding moral foundations theory (though I highly recommend Haidt's book, The Righteous Mind):

https://www.moralfoundations.org/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_foundations_theory

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#82
Interesting article, but I would have loved it if they touched upon how to effectively follow these principles in a world where there's competition. For instance, getting feedback, thoroughly vetting ideas, etc., is a good practice. But if you are competing against those who exploit the limited attention of investors/peers to quickly get ahead (in the short term), they _could_ get an enormous first-mover advantage. How does one deal with that?

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#83
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many pro-choice people do you think are persuaded by Symmetrically, how many pro-life people do you think are persuaded by the people screaming "woman-hater/sexist/misogynist" outside of Planned Parenthood? If you can't explain your argument in a calm, rational manner, You overestimate the efficacy of explaining in a calm, rational manner. As a university teacher with > 10 years experience, I can tell you with ex…

100% agree, and I'd like to draw out a thread that is highly relevant to the original title. Most damage is done by large groups of people who want simple solutions to complex situations (like, eg, characterising a debate as having precisely two well defined sides). There are some situations in life that are genuinely complicated (eg, running the logistic system that gets food from farms to houses). I think it might…

   characterising a debate as 
   having precisely two well 
   defined sides
I see this as a reaction to complexity: if a subject is too complicated to grasp, comprehend and communicate all relevant subtleties, a common reaction is radical simplification down to two options, with a strong preference for one side.

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get replies from Enterprise support reps of this sort. They vaguely address my question without commiting to an answer or solution. That way the onus is on me to guess what might work for my case, and meanwhile they can mark the issue resolved.

That's terrible. A support agent should never mark an issue resolved until the client has said the issue is resolved or been unresponsive to followip communication for some time.

Unfortunately in practice, the lowly paid support agent is being bean counted on the number of outstanding tickets they have, and being told to periodically fix that problem.

"You get what you measure."

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#85
post #71

The bit I struggled with is that in many fields, either the majority are wrong/don't have the solution (Argumentum ad populum) or otherwise listening to expertise/experience can either give you too much input or, again, implies that there is more chance that experience will give you a better solution to a problem. In their example, if Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis had asked his more experienced peers about approaching the pro…

I find the claim that the majority are wrong in fields tough to believe. Not impossible, mind. Just tough.

I would think it matters on what is "right." Are they wrong in the way that Newton was wrong? Still far more correct that anyone else? (Obviously, not to that degree.)

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#86

Well I read a bit, then thought "things like being verbose, generic, and over-guarded in offering advice and so wasting lots of readers time without making an impact on their behaviour"? If they'd given one direct piece of easily actionable advice the actual impact might have been far larger ... "So what?" - a Church sermon I heard well over decade ago, the speaker said basically if there's nothing that listeners wil…

80,000 hours appeals to a particular type of person, and I think this is good but vague advice for that sort of person.

Reputation and social standing matters, you have to network, be humble and learn from people older and wiser than you, don’t try to go it alone, be willing to work on smaller challenges — these are all things I think people in this specific subculture probably would benefit from hearing.

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#87
post #85
post #71

The bit I struggled with is that in many fields, either the majority are wrong/don't have the solution (Argumentum ad populum) or otherwise listening to expertise/experience can either give you too much input or, again, implies that there is more chance that experience will give you a better solution to a problem. In their example, if Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis had asked his more experienced peers about approaching the pro…

I find the claim that the majority are wrong in fields tough to believe. Not impossible, mind. Just tough. I would think it matters on what is "right." Are they wrong in the way that Newton was wrong? Still far more correct that anyone else? (Obviously, not to that degree.)

The majority are not wrong by definition but the fallacy is that you cannot assume that the majority are right.

As far as knowledge is concerned, was Newton right for a period until we learned about quantum mechanics or was he always wrong? Was he always right but only within limits that he couldn't know in advance?

Apologies for the philosophy but this is the real complexity of an article about avoiding harm by doing various "good practice" stuff!

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#88
A good example of that is Germany.

They removed Nuclear from their energy sources and now need to use coal instead to compensate.

But it gets better than that.

Denmark focused primarily on wind energy with the consequence that this summers heatwave resulted in them having to get their energy from Germany who now without Nuclear had to use even more coal.

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#89
post #71

The bit I struggled with is that in many fields, either the majority are wrong/don't have the solution (Argumentum ad populum) or otherwise listening to expertise/experience can either give you too much input or, again, implies that there is more chance that experience will give you a better solution to a problem. In their example, if Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis had asked his more experienced peers about approaching the pro…

> Many great solutions come from people with "crazy" thinking and I would expect they could have caused great damage (or perhaps have - jet engines) but otherwise we would be moving very slowly as a planet?

I agree. There's something I like to call Asimov's principle[1]: knowledge almost never does harm; the answer to poor or incomplete knowledge is almost always more knowledge (corrections, extensions, alternatives) instead of forgetting.

And there is the possibility of trying to forget in case a knowledge would be so absolutely harmful -- so the downside is practically bounded while the upside is practically unbounded. If you try to hide something harmful it's always possible it will be rediscovered later in very poor timing and the benefit of countermeasures won't be available. If we refrain from discussing AI safety in fear of derailing some holy discussion by the wise sages (what criteria would make anyone good enough to disrupt it?), it seems it'll be more likely when potent general AI emerges we're not ready.

If Einstein tried to hide the mass-energy equivalence, or say all of his theories because of mass-energy equivalence, then when someone later discovered it could be much worse -- if atomic bombs were discovered in the cold war (discoveries usually start unilaterally), one side could very well have started WW3 (in fact the US nearly started a war with USSR in the short period they were the sole possessors of the bomb). The fact is it is extremely hard to predict the impact of any individual action, while it seems quite safe to say that in general thoughtful action is usually benign -- this suggests a strong benefit to discussion and discovery of knowledge versus hiding in fear.

An important principle I would suggest instead is commitment to truth. You can make poor arguments, you can be wrong, but as long as you're committed to truth even the incorrect arguments might prove useful -- they might lead to stronger counterarguments, elucidation of fundamentals, etc.

To exemplify, one of the individuals that perhaps most advanced our understanding of Quantum Mechanics was again Einstein, which was a great critic of it -- his criticisms turned out to be all wrong, but they were so strong (intuitively seemingly right) they brought to light the most interesting features, 'weirdness' of the theory. Even for relativity one of the most useful ways of grasping the theory and its implications is by examining "paradoxes" -- which are essentially failed counterarguments.

This failure of commitment to truth is where climate change deniers ("""skeptics""") go wrong -- it's not trying to prove consensus wrong that's harmful, it is failure to adjust in face of mountains of evidence. Reasonable skepticism probably wasn't so harmful when its impact was less clear -- we've improved our models, measurements, etc to address it.

[1] He makes essentially this argument as a foreword to some of his short stories, can't remember which one exactly. I believe it was more or less along the lines of: science and technology (brought by knowledge, discovery) can often be used for great good or great harm, but to reliably avoid the great harm (that could also come from inaction) we usually need more knowledge, more discussion.

And note how my examples are for very impactful work in the brink of wars and political stability, and still discussion and knowledge seems to have been positive. How many people really should worry about the risk of triggering catastrophe from their daily jobs? Some of the points in the article might be applicable, in very restrict cases -- basically if you're dealing with catastrophic scenarios (how many people routinely are exposed to that?). If you ever find a flashing red button while alone in a power station, or find a break for a major cryptographic protocol, you want to triple check with specialists and be very careful. Otherwise it can turn into futile paralization by fear (which is harmful to yourself and others).

Re: Ways people trying to do good accidentally do harm instead and how to avoid them

#90
post #85
post #71

The bit I struggled with is that in many fields, either the majority are wrong/don't have the solution (Argumentum ad populum) or otherwise listening to expertise/experience can either give you too much input or, again, implies that there is more chance that experience will give you a better solution to a problem. In their example, if Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis had asked his more experienced peers about approaching the pro…

I find the claim that the majority are wrong in fields tough to believe. Not impossible, mind. Just tough. I would think it matters on what is "right." Are they wrong in the way that Newton was wrong? Still far more correct that anyone else? (Obviously, not to that degree.)

Take, for example, an electronics or hardware project. The majority is a bunch of experienced engineers who will tell you that your project will take years based on their own experience with an earlier project. What they neglect to account for is that their earlier project took years because of the state of the art at the time. They're taking experience that applies to the era of NAND flash and board bring-up and applying it to the era of eMMC and main-line Linux drivers. So while their estimate is very conservative, it is also very wrong and you should take it with a grain of salt.

Any judgement that relies on some external context, like the industry state of the art, can no longer be trusted in a different context.

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