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US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

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Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#131
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This will benefit the likes of Amazon more than anyone else. A _huge_ chunk of Amazon is low effort Chinese clone / drop shipped crap or straight up forgery. I don't feel sorry for /r/entrepreneur denizens' loss. It will help the kind of small business with core competencies revolving around producing things and hurt the kind of small business with core competencies revolving around buying things on Alibaba and sell…

> People who actually wanted to do things well... You think intermediaries (e.g. dropshippers) can't add value to a supply chain? I don't know why you'd be so uncaring about /r/entrepreneurs when these are generally just people trying to get by as best they can. Having said that, this treaty withdrawal is still a good idea.

  You think intermediaries (e.g. dropshippers)
  can't add value to a supply chain?
These days, don't Chinese companies mostly list the products on Ebay and Amazon themselves? Just today I ordered something on Ebay and got a paypal receipt for my payment to 覃尚田.

I don't see what value an extra intermediary adds in that situation?

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#132
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The threat of withdrawal is part of the negotiation as far as I can tell.

It's not a threat of withdrawal, it's an actual withdrawal, which takes time to take effect (like Brexit), with the idea that if negotiation is satisfactory, the withdrawal might be cancelled.

Either the Brexit example is a simple mistake or you're confused about the mechanics behind it, so I'll elaborate to avoid people thinking it's a sound analogy:

The Brexit referendum was non-binding, so at that point nothing legally relevant had happened yet.

The UK government then decided to honour the will demonstrated by the 37.5% of the population that cast a vote in favour of leaving the EU (51.9% of the result at a 72.2% turnout). Again, this decision didn't mean anything legally relevant but the government announced its commitment, setting expectations.

At that point the UK government could have negotiated with the EU and sought alternative solutions (not that there was much left considering "do this or we'll leave" had been the negotiation strategy for quite a while).

But then on 29 March 2017 the UK government decided to start an "actual withdrawal" by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. This set its membership to auto-destruct within two years time and was legally binding.

The problem with Article 50 is that the UK now had a mere two years until all existing treaties it was part of via the EU would simply end and nobody had bothered to prepare for negotiating any replacements yet. As of today there are still hundreds of incredibly complex treaties that haven't been sorted out yet, the most obvious problem being how to deal with Northern Ireland's chaotic land borders without upsetting the DUP (the political party that enabled the Prime Minister to stay in office after her botched early re-election).

However unlike the US and the Postal Treaty, the UK can't simply cancel its withdrawal from the EU. If it wants to revoke its invocation of Article 50, it has to get approval from every single of the EU's (other) 27 member states -- some of which don't particularly care much for the UK for various reasons.

It's like giving your boss the finger and handing in your signed three weeks notice (after using the threat of quitting during salary renegotiations for decades) and then coming back two weeks later asking them if they can please let you stay. Except you don't have one boss but 27 of them and all of them have veto powers and some of them really don't like you.

However Scotland (where a majority voted against leaving in the first place) brought forth a case that will decide whether maybe the UK could still unilaterally revoke its invocation after all. The only problem is that a ruling might take months and may come a little too late.

Even if the court rules in favour of Scotland and the UK pulls off a full 180 at the last minute, the entire ordeal would leave the UK in a worse position by having called its own bluff and shown that leaving is not actually an option they're willing to follow through on.

tl;dr: the biggest difference is that (unless the ECJ rules differently) Brexit "took effect" immediately when Article 50 was invoked, it just includes a 2 year "migration" period during which the membership status remains in effect.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalization is about an even playing field, not one-sided concessions and subsidies

The idea of free trade/globalization is everyone benefiting from the efficiency of each place doing the work it can do most efficiently. Iowa corn and Swiss fine machinery and Arab oil and all sorts of things where one place can do something better and cheaper because of the nature of the place. Poverty (cheap labor) and treaties (cheap postage) shouldn't be the drivers of this efficiency because they aren't caused b…

I’m not sure if Swiss fine machinery is the best example here. What is it about the nature of Switzerland that makes it a more natural place to create fine machinery then anywhere else?

Similarly, using American corn as an example of how free trade should work is pretty underhanded. There’s a ridiculous amount of subsidies there, and the US doesn’t have any qualms with dumping the resulting product on international markets.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#134
post #57

if China loses its status as a developing country, all that's likely to happen is the items will end up being shipped from a neighbouring country that still has the status. When you buy items from AliExpress often they have the option of being sent by Singapore Post. I'm not exactly sure how that works (Singapore isn't that close to China), but although the item comes from China, to the postal service it doesn't.

I had a chat about this with one of the sellers on AliBaba.

He claimed that the items are still being shipped from China, and that he is just witing Singapore / Czechoslovakia / any other developing country on the package (he said it is part of the tracking code), and he gets the benefit of the country whose code he used.

He said the main reason they do that is that the laws differ as to what can be shipped from each country, especially vis a vis things that use radio frequencies. By choosing even distant countries they can be caught breaking minimum standards and are not prosecutable.

He said that the down side is that things can never be returned to sender, since the sending address is fictitious. This last sentiment has been echoed by many sellers.

Have no way to verify, but it is an interesting claim.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of free trade/globalization is everyone benefiting from the efficiency of each place doing the work it can do most efficiently. Iowa corn and Swiss fine machinery and Arab oil and all sorts of things where one place can do something better and cheaper because of the nature of the place. Poverty (cheap labor) and treaties (cheap postage) shouldn't be the drivers of this efficiency because they aren't caused b…

I’m not sure if Swiss fine machinery is the best example here. What is it about the nature of Switzerland that makes it a more natural place to create fine machinery then anywhere else? Similarly, using American corn as an example of how free trade should work is pretty underhanded. There’s a ridiculous amount of subsidies there, and the US doesn’t have any qualms with dumping the resulting product on international m…

The nature of the place in the context of Swiss watches could mean the établissage system.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#136
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whoever thought it would be advantageous for packages from China to cost less to ship than equivalent packages within the USA, is beyond me. As a consumer I think it's advantageous. I'd much prefer to pay no shipping when compared to paying significant amounts for shipping, regardless of where the package originates.

Aren't we still paying for shipping through taxes, since the USPS is a public institution?

No. The USPS is in the constitution because the Framer’s thought it was important to put there. But it is completley self-funded at this stage.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#137

A friend helped the Wall Street Journal expose the damage this treaty was doing to his small business in the United States as it tried to fend off counterfeiters. https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-subsidy-for-china-is-dumb-... Seems like a win for American innovation if you care about that thing. Seems like China is going to get hurt by this change which is bad for globalization if you are into that thing.

Globalization is about an even playing field, not one-sided concessions and subsidies

I hear you but if it costs $3 to drop ship something from China to CONUS but $4 for me to send it within CONUS I’m not sure how we can say it’s “not one-sided concessions and subsidies”

I get the argument of globalization but I just don’t see it playing out how people say it’s supposed to.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#138
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those airlines don't provide a better product for a lower cost, they are selling you a higher-end product and billing part of it to their own citizens. That's what government subsidy means.

Yes, I understand what government subsidies are and how they work. But if I'm not the one subsidising the product then I don't understand how me benefiting from that is a bad thing for me personally. The US subsidises gasoline quite aggressively when compared to other countries around the world. You can see this in fuel costs; routinely US gasoline used to be cheaper by the gallon than Australian gasoline was by the…

Our gas is too cheap due to subsidies and/or due to inadequately accounting for the costs of externalities like pollution or wear/tear on roads. Or, more precisely, the lack of political will to acknowledge that discrepancy.

Re: US Announces Withdraw From Postal Treaty

#140
post #102
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest reduction in global poverty we've seen is due to outsourcing to China. Don't you care about starving Chinese peasants?

Depends. Are they so desperate that they want to go to war, or are they rather becoming more of a middle class that wants to play the newest video games?

I'm not sure about video games, but they do seem to crave mobile phones and luxury goods :D
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