Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I sat through some early presentations of Augur at the big monthly Bitcoin meeting that's been running for years in Amsterdam, and my first thought upon seeing it was, "who says what the factual outcome is?". Is that a genuine question, or are you confused about the consensus mechanism? The answer to 'who says' is the core of what Augur is: people vote on what the outcome was, in a way that incentivizes them to vot…
Then I completely remembered it differently/wrong, and my comments perhaps don't apply! I will review it again.
The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
51–60 of 62 posts
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Prediction markets are a form of gambling, but there is a key difference; whilst the purpose of traditional gambling markets is entertainment, the purpose of a prediction market is information discovery. Some prediction markets can even be subsidised in order to incentivise participants, where the house (ie the entity running the market) expects to lose money in exchange for the information that the market is reveali…
From the IEM's FAQ: "The IEM is operated for research and teaching purposes. All interested participants world-wide can trade in our political markets. Other markets--such as the earnings and returns markets--are open only to academic traders." "Trading accounts can be opened for $5 to $500." These constraints are presumably why they got their no-action letter from the CFTC. If there's demand for markets other than p…
Blockchain as a technology has a valid use-case where you cannot trust a third party to manage a centralised database and where you need an immutable history of events. I can just about buy into putting transactions for real-world things (eg property) onto a blockchain - after all its a lot easier to prove you own something in the case of a dispute if you can show on a distributed and trusted event log that you were the last person to purchase it than it is to dig out some old documentation and prove its not forged.
There is an argument that applies to prediction markets, which is that you might not trust the market to actually pay out your winning contracts (though believing in this relies on a distrust of the regulators and court system). Augur is not actually solving this problem though, as neither oracle contracts nor the market owner defining the settlement conditions are trustworthy, and when you have user-defined markets such as "Does God Exist?" there is huge scope for arguing about the true outcome. At least with the centralised case you have an organisation with a reputation to maintain, that is therefore motivated to police and administrate the markets properly.
You might also argue for long-running markets that the company running the market might collapse and be unable to pay out, but in the case of crypto there is simply a parallel that your currency could simply collapse and be worthless by the time your contract paid out. Given the volatility of most ETH and REP, your winnings are likely to either be dwarfed by gains in the currency or destroyed by a collapse in the currency.
Prediction markets that trade using real money are gambling, and hence are controlled by various regulators. In addition, certain markets can also catch the attention of other regulators, for example if a market involves speculation on financial instruments or commodities. There are certain ways to avoid this, such as restructuring the incentives; for example, a market using credits instead of real money and run as a competition where the most successful players receive monetary prizes does not constitute gambling. Obviously in this case the players are not risking their own money, and this relates back to my previous points about subsidising prediction markets in exchange for valuable information. The regulation issues should be dealt with in an ethical way by developing the technology and working with regulators and not by avoiding the issue via decentralised blockchains.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
From the IEM's FAQ: "The IEM is operated for research and teaching purposes. All interested participants world-wide can trade in our political markets. Other markets--such as the earnings and returns markets--are open only to academic traders." "Trading accounts can be opened for $5 to $500." These constraints are presumably why they got their no-action letter from the CFTC. If there's demand for markets other than p…
You seem to be suggesting that the point of decentralisation is to avoid legislation and regulation. While this might be true for Silk Road and other criminal transactions, that does not seem to me to be a valid argument for running a prediction market on blockchain software. Blockchain as a technology has a valid use-case where you cannot trust a third party to manage a centralised database and where you need an imm…
Regarding settlement conditions, there's an allowed outcome of "null," where the judges can decide that the outcome can't be determined. In that case all bettors get their money back.
There's no oracle. Augur's main innovation is its decentralized resolution system. Initially a small number of randomly-chosen REP holders vote on the outcome. That outcome can be disputed, which escalates to a larger number of REP holders.
This goes through several rounds. Disputers have to post bonds to make a dispute, which they lose if the dispute fails.
If they're determined, they can escalate to the ultimate resolution: Augur splits in two, one with each outcome. At this point every REP holder has voted one way or the other, and each holder only gets REP on the version he voted with. The theory is that the version of Augur which reports the truth is the one where REP will have the most value. This gives REP holders an incentive to vote for the true outcome.
I may be wrong on some details, so check their whitepaper for more, but the general idea is to make the incentive strong enough so most REP holders will vote for the truth and disputes will happen rarely, mostly when small groups of REP holders actually get it wrong. Whether it works in the real world, we'll have to see, but I think it's an interesting experiment at least.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#54I sat through some early presentations of Augur at the big monthly Bitcoin meeting that's been running for years in Amsterdam, and my first thought upon seeing it was, "who says what the factual outcome is?". Sure in some cases it's black and white, but like most things in life there is a lot of weight in the interpretation. So it's back to the original problem with smart contracts - you still have to trust an oracle…
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#55Genuine question, why is this called a "prediction market" and not just a gambling exchange? As far as I can tell, this is no different from BetFair et al who let punters bet against each other on the outcome of the next football match? (apart from "oooh! blockchain!" and "oooh! decentralised!") I've read a lot of articles about this over the years and seen lots of lofty words about how this will change X/the world f…
Why couldn't you just fucking google it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Your inane rant disguised as a question doesn't add anything to the discussion.
On HN, if someone doesn't know something, please either politely inform them or leave that for someone else to do.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
[1] provides a good answer to this question. "The outcome becomes more predictable over time. This is because the payoff depends on the accurate prediction of an outcome of an event. Therefore, people will put in more effort to come to the most accurate conclusion. As a larger number of people do more market research to come to the most likely conclusion, the predicted outcome will lean more favorable to one side. If…
Can you show that predictions are true rather than just being perturbations. To me it looks like trading drives markets to respond (beyond large obvious fundamentals changes), rather than providing usable predictions. Moreover, assume they are predictive, do they target funds to where society needs them. Finally if people are good at prediction, using algorithms for example, then those algorithms provide the required…
Respond to what? The markets are about events that have not happened. The payout is directly proportional to the predictive power of the market purchase.
>>Finally if people are good at prediction, using algorithms for example, then those algorithms provide the required prediction and we should use those to target resources and retain wealth in the market rather than giving out 40% of the wealth (UK)
How do we incentivize people to generate these predictive methods, let alone release them for public use, without a compensatory scheme like a prediction market?
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why couldn't you just fucking google it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Your inane rant disguised as a question doesn't add anything to the discussion.
Attacking someone like this will get you banned here, regardless of how ignorant they are. Please don't do it again. On HN, if someone doesn't know something, please either politely inform them or leave that for someone else to do. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Civility should be reserved for people who are looking to argue and discuss in good faith.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bookies have implemented this. Betting exchanges have existed for over a decade now, you can lay off your bets to lock in a profit if the odds have moved. Even 'traditional' bookies offer various forms of cashing out a bet.
Could you name some of these exchanges? One problem is that they may not service certain jurisdictions as well.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Attacking someone like this will get you banned here, regardless of how ignorant they are. Please don't do it again. On HN, if someone doesn't know something, please either politely inform them or leave that for someone else to do. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Over the past few years, the increase in zero-effort contributions have all but destroyed the quality of discussions on HN. And you aren't doing anything about it. HN is looking more indistinguishable from Reddit and I'll be damned if I let that happen. Civility should be reserved for people who are looking to argue and discuss in good faith .
"Your inane rant disguised as a question"
This kills the curiosity. Don't do that.
By the way:
And you aren't doing anything about it.
You lose credibility with this kind of statement. I may deeply disagree with policy, but it would be ridiculous to accuse the mods of inaction.
Re: The story of Augur, an Ethereum prediction market
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Attacking someone like this will get you banned here, regardless of how ignorant they are. Please don't do it again. On HN, if someone doesn't know something, please either politely inform them or leave that for someone else to do. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Over the past few years, the increase in zero-effort contributions have all but destroyed the quality of discussions on HN. And you aren't doing anything about it. HN is looking more indistinguishable from Reddit and I'll be damned if I let that happen. Civility should be reserved for people who are looking to argue and discuss in good faith .