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First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

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Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#11

Post by Brotkrumen »

Hansenq wrote: post #5

The issue with conclusions of reports like these is that yes, Uber/Lyft contributed to a congestion increase, but what would that increase have looked like without Uber/Lyft? How much would congestion have increased by without Uber/Lyft (due to the strong economy, jobs, etc)? Would people instead have purchased cars and driven them around instead? Would we actually have had higher congestion? Publishing reports like…

At the most basic level: YYou take your congestion per citizen metrics before the market entry of uber, which should be linearly related, and extend that line. Then you draw another line with the metrics after uber. If you see a difference and you can't explain those away wwith other causes, you're confident it's ddue to uber.

The study very likely threw some more statistical tests, controls And models at it, but that's the gist.

Not an unexpected rresult either: personal vehicle use means the car is on the road twice per day, uber twice per passenger and the distance between passengers.

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#12

Post by helpingout »

Hansenq wrote: post #5

The issue with conclusions of reports like these is that yes, Uber/Lyft contributed to a congestion increase, but what would that increase have looked like without Uber/Lyft? How much would congestion have increased by without Uber/Lyft (due to the strong economy, jobs, etc)? Would people instead have purchased cars and driven them around instead? Would we actually have had higher congestion? Publishing reports like…

Agreed. At least also post the increase in number of employees in the same area.

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#13

Post by make3 »

Brotkrumen wrote: post #11
Hansenq wrote: post #5

The issue with conclusions of reports like these is that yes, Uber/Lyft contributed to a congestion increase, but what would that increase have looked like without Uber/Lyft? How much would congestion have increased by without Uber/Lyft (due to the strong economy, jobs, etc)? Would people instead have purchased cars and driven them around instead? Would we actually have had higher congestion? Publishing reports like…

At the most basic level: YYou take your congestion per citizen metrics before the market entry of uber, which should be linearly related, and extend that line. Then you draw another line with the metrics after uber. If you see a difference and you can't explain those away wwith other causes, you're confident it's ddue to uber. The study very likely threw some more statistical tests, controls And models at it, but tha…

"and you can't explain those away wwith other causes" feels very ambitious to be sufficiently confident that there couldn't possibly be another cause, but I guess that's the best we can do

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#14

Post by baddox »

burlesona wrote: post #6
Hansenq wrote: post #5

The issue with conclusions of reports like these is that yes, Uber/Lyft contributed to a congestion increase, but what would that increase have looked like without Uber/Lyft? How much would congestion have increased by without Uber/Lyft (due to the strong economy, jobs, etc)? Would people instead have purchased cars and driven them around instead? Would we actually have had higher congestion? Publishing reports like…

How exactly would you control for all the rest? Where is there another San Francisco that doesn’t have Uber that we can go measure? I think these estimates pass the sniff test at least. Downtown SF has very little parking relative to demand, so Uber / Lyft are practically the only way to get there in a car.

The fact that it’s extremely difficult or impossible to control for these things doesn’t mean that any analysis which doesn’t control for these things is valid or useful.

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#15

Post by product50 »

Uber is really a heaven sent product for me and my family. We have to pick up and drop off our daughter at her day care on a daily basis and without Uber, I am not sure how would we have done it. I hope we can expand studies like this with the quality of life improvement which services like Uber have been responsible.

Also, there are other things which have improved too. Such as less drunk driving, improved safety especially when traveling at nights, predictability vs. taxis etc.

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#17

Post by SllX »

lewis500 wrote: post #2

"TNCs had little impact on congestion in the western and southern San Francisco neighborhoods." Recently Supervisor Peskin apparently reached a deal to impose a "net fares" tax on the TNC's. I wonder if they will consider differentiating it by neighborhood: imposing larger charges downtown. Peskin has also lobbied for downtown congestion pricing although that is harder to implement, politically and technologically, t…

> Peskin has also lobbied for downtown congestion pricing although that is harder to implement, politically and technologically, than such a tax.

Politically, sure. The idea has been floating around for at least a decade that I know of, and probably longer.

Technologically? License plate readers on every intersection, let's say, for the sake of argument, every intersection along Van Ness and South Van Ness going east, and every intersection along Folsom going Northwest. Maybe put the northern boundary at about Washington Street and also have readers at off-ramps. Maybe give people driving along the Embarcadero a free pass though and set the Eastern boundary there. Every car that enters this section of the City has their plate read, and you either pay with FasTrack or get a bill in the mail at the end of the month. If you live in this part of the City, you can apply for a waiver, oh and since we're reading plates and doing a DMV lookup for the address, the City could even charge extra if the vehicle is commuting in from outside the City. Actually, taking that into consideration, you wouldn't even need to apply for a waiver, any vehicle registered to an address within this zone simply wouldn't be charged.

In fact, to make this more interesting, if someone calls a Lyft or Uber to an address within that zone, you could have them collect a surcharge which will be paid directly to the City.

The technical challenge isn't very hard, actually kind of boring, I think the bureaucratic challenge is a bit harder once you get through the political challenge, which is the real hurdle. That is a potentially large source of revenue for the SFMTA though, between the tolls, the surcharges, and the additional monthly passes sold.

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#18

Post by liotier »

product50 wrote: post #15

Uber is really a heaven sent product for me and my family. We have to pick up and drop off our daughter at her day care on a daily basis and without Uber, I am not sure how would we have done it. I hope we can expand studies like this with the quality of life improvement which services like Uber have been responsible. Also, there are other things which have improved too. Such as less drunk driving, improved safety es…

> We have to pick up and drop off our daughter at her day care on a daily basis and without Uber

I'm amazed that Uber is considered an affordable commute device. Is that a SV phenomenon ?

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#19

Post by almost_usual »

burlesona wrote: post #6
Hansenq wrote: post #5

The issue with conclusions of reports like these is that yes, Uber/Lyft contributed to a congestion increase, but what would that increase have looked like without Uber/Lyft? How much would congestion have increased by without Uber/Lyft (due to the strong economy, jobs, etc)? Would people instead have purchased cars and driven them around instead? Would we actually have had higher congestion? Publishing reports like…

How exactly would you control for all the rest? Where is there another San Francisco that doesn’t have Uber that we can go measure? I think these estimates pass the sniff test at least. Downtown SF has very little parking relative to demand, so Uber / Lyft are practically the only way to get there in a car.

>Downtown SF has very little parking relative to demand, so Uber / Lyft are practically the only way to get there in a car.

Why do you need to get there in a car?

Re: First analysis of how Uber and Lyft have affected roadway congestion in SF

#20

Post by almost_usual »

my_usernam3 wrote: post #10
joering2 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess your assumption is that every one gave up on buying car and instead every day they drive to work. The impression i have from my friends is different: they use lyft when they cant take car or want to drink while with strong economy the can afford having car as well. I dont know any single person who would sell their car because they can travel with lyft to work every single day.

Really? My experience has been extremely different, albeit both of us only really have antidotes. My friends/coworkers who got jobs in the city directly after college all don't have cars. Think 2013-2018 graduates. The only ones with cars, either grew up in the bay, or have worked outside the city at some point. Mind you these are all people who have a license in their prior state/country.

How many of these people would stay in SF if Lyft/Uber were banned entirely?
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