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U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

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Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#111

Post by tareqak »

cprayingmantis wrote: post #108
tareqak wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about when technology or a technological platform is used for political purposes, and the stewards of said technology or technology platform are slow to acknowledge or catch up?

You know honestly I don’t have a good answer for that. On the one hand I feel like we’re intelligent enough to rise above partisan or two sided politics but on the other hand we’re not intelligent enough to realize what the true implications of some of the platforms we’ve built are. And we’re definitely don’t have the forethought to understand that our platforms will and should be used by people we don’t agree with.

I appreciate your answer, and answers like yours are reason enough for me to believe that this topic is one we should talk about more openly despite the risk of the conversation devolving into something undesirable and unhelpful.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#113

Post by nemo846 »

drewrv wrote: post #72
40acres wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a long time I couldn't wrap my head around why defecits matter to the US when we print our currency. To be honest I still don't fully understand the hand wringing over a balanced budget and reading more about modern monetary theory is leading me to believe that for a superpower which issues it's own currency the defecit is more of a political issue that a concrete one. The defecit just keeps ballooning but the on…

The US can also borrow at really good rates. If a business could borrow that cheaply it would be a no-brainer to take debt and build a new factory or whatever. Similarly, it makes a ton of sense for the government to borrow and then invest in future economic growth.

Hell of a gamble ...

Correct me if I’m wrong.

The current administration cuts the tax rate and borrows to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue.

All this is in hopes that the economy grows enough such that the reduce tax rate can support government spending and pay back the debt + interest.

If the economy goes south for whatever reason (e.g. China imploding, another bubble pops) ...

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#114

Post by galaxyLogic »

geofft wrote: post #101
galaxyLogic wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I certainly don't post things to promote any kind of political agenda per se. Posting factual and informative articles is promoting a certain kind of political agenda, truth-based.

That's a nice-sounding claim but "truth" isn't a coherent agenda. There are many things that are true, and a finite life; which true things are worth paying attention to? Five hundred star-bellies Sneetches and five hundred plain-bellied Sneetches died in combat yesterday; reading just the obituaries of the heroic star-bellied Sneetches and how they gave their lives for peace is truth-based, but it's a very different…

It's not truth-based if it omits different relevant claims. Naturally there is no such thing as absolute truth but there is a choice of whether more truthful should be of primary concern or not.

Saying that truth doesn't matter because "everybody has their own truth" is a political agenda whose purpose is to make people believe any "truth" is as good as any other and therefore we should not even try to look for evidence.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#115

Post by NTDF9 »

tanderson92 wrote: post #97
NTDF9 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't follow that the deflation has been due to the deficit. It's obvious to the economic world. That's the reason BOJ keeps buying Japanese stocks and bonds (to keep asset prices high when others have stopped buying) and Japanese people have stopped investing in Nikkei (because holding cash == increasing value) That's also the reason Japan (notoriously closed society) is admitting defeat and letting in immigr…

It’s convenient for deficit hawks that they can simultaneously blame deficits for deflation in Japan and fear monger about hyperinflation in the US. Your comment also doesn’t link the deficit to the deflation, only speculates on the effects of and policy response to that deflation.

> It’s convenient for deficit hawks that they can simultaneously blame deficits for deflation in Japan and fear monger about hyperinflation in the US.

You need to understand the sequence of events in Japan. They had a massive debt problem (national, local and corporate). That triggered a recession causing asset prices to drop. The caused deflation.

The only way to not have asset prices drop and some inflation was printing money. So they printed. Their population and economic investment dropped further while they kept printing money (two opposite pulls). This kept them going until today. It's a wonder they didn't hyperinflate. They pulled it off. But the expense of this is no GDP growth. Infact, whatever GDP growth they have is because of BOJ selling assets to BOJ who sells assets to BOJ. It's a mirage.

So, yeah, their real economic activity (thus, investments, wages, innovation) has dropped from zero to negative because for the average individual, holding money = gold!

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#116

Post by spiralx »

MarkMc wrote: post #87
40acres wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a long time I couldn't wrap my head around why defecits matter to the US when we print our currency. To be honest I still don't fully understand the hand wringing over a balanced budget and reading more about modern monetary theory is leading me to believe that for a superpower which issues it's own currency the defecit is more of a political issue that a concrete one. The defecit just keeps ballooning but the on…

Yes, the US government could simply print all the money it needs then pay off all it's creditors. But how would those creditors respond? They would refuse to lend in US dollars in future, and the US government and private companies would be forced to borrow in a foreign currency. Net result is that the US loses a valuable asset - the ability to borrow in its own currency - and becomes more like Turkey or Argentina.

If creditors are paid off, why would that discourage them from making future loans? Creditors surely want to get their money back, and countries that have trouble borrowing money are those that don't make debt repayments, not those that do.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#117

Post by spiralx »

nemo846 wrote: post #113
drewrv wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US can also borrow at really good rates. If a business could borrow that cheaply it would be a no-brainer to take debt and build a new factory or whatever. Similarly, it makes a ton of sense for the government to borrow and then invest in future economic growth.

Hell of a gamble ... Correct me if I’m wrong. The current administration cuts the tax rate and borrows to make up for the shortfall in tax revenue. All this is in hopes that the economy grows enough such that the reduce tax rate can support government spending and pay back the debt + interest. If the economy goes south for whatever reason (e.g. China imploding, another bubble pops) ...

What crisis would be so large that the US would be unable to keep up with it's repayments? Especially when you consider that it can borrow more to repay current debt instruments i.e. issue more Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Plus other countries always need to borrow dollars because it's what oil is sold in, which is one of the things that makes US Government debt considered the baseline or "risk-free" investment, with any other investment having increased risk, and accordingly increased reward.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#118

Post by spiralx »

mwfunk wrote: post #89
40acres wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a long time I couldn't wrap my head around why defecits matter to the US when we print our currency. To be honest I still don't fully understand the hand wringing over a balanced budget and reading more about modern monetary theory is leading me to believe that for a superpower which issues it's own currency the defecit is more of a political issue that a concrete one. The defecit just keeps ballooning but the on…

Because printing more money isn't an option for one thing. It might be a short term fix for some things, but in the long run it just devalues the currency and lowers the US credit rating, with the worst case scenario being hyperinflation. Also, there's the question of who owns all that debt that the US relies on for its continued existence. For example, China owns a big chunk of it, like ~$1.2 trillion. They buy tons…

The amount of debt isn't a problem for a country's credit rating as long as repayments are made on time, that's the same as for individual borrowing and their credit score. You have to explain why the US would fail to repay its debts before you can claim there's a problem.

China owns just 5.3% of US debt, only slightly more than Japan, which owns 4.8% of it. Most US debt is owned by government programmes such as Social Security.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#119

Post by tomjen3 »

IMTDb wrote: post #46
paulpauper wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when ppl think of household debt, they think big screen TVs and other discretionary items, but it's actually mostly mortgages and student loans https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/US-Hous...

Which is even scarier. In case of default, discretionary items can be seize and sold to at least repay part of the debt (while decreasing quality of life). 2008 has shown what seizing houses leads to. Now think that there is nothing to seize for student debt loans. If you fail to get a good enough income using the degree you paid using debt, you are as hopeless as if you had used it all on hookers and cocaine. At lea…

Cars might hold some value, houses might hold more value over time, but TVs? Don't expect much.

What we need is to make college debt discharable through bankruptcy, same as any other debt. Then the only people who can borrow are those likely to be able to pay it of, which nicely solves the problem of unplayable college debt (while reducing the interest students of medical, science, law etc have to pay, since more money will be chasing fewer students), for profit colleges and useless degrees.

Does it mean some people won't be able to study their favourite subject? In general no[0], in college? Yes.

[0]: Remember the " you dropped 150 grand on a fuckin' education you could have got for a dollar fifty in late charges at the public library!"? Today it is probably 15 USD on Beeminder, and you won't have a degree, but that degree is worthless in the first place, so overall huge win.

Re: U.S. Is World’s Most Competitive Economy for First Time in a Decade

#120

Post by diggernet »

spiralx wrote: post #116
MarkMc wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the US government could simply print all the money it needs then pay off all it's creditors. But how would those creditors respond? They would refuse to lend in US dollars in future, and the US government and private companies would be forced to borrow in a foreign currency. Net result is that the US loses a valuable asset - the ability to borrow in its own currency - and becomes more like Turkey or Argentina.

If creditors are paid off, why would that discourage them from making future loans? Creditors surely want to get their money back, and countries that have trouble borrowing money are those that don't make debt repayments, not those that do.

Because printing more dollars reduces the value of each one, so they've been paid back with dollars worth less than the ones they loaned out.
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